Mr A
Denver Nuggets -5
Detroit Tigers +105
San Francisco Giants -125
MLB Computer Picks
Pittsburgh Pirates -125
Philadelphia Phillies -165
Cincinnati Reds +100
John Ryan
Seattle Mariners vs. LAA Angels
Play: LAA Angels
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Anaheim as they host Seattle. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 35-6 making 26.8 units since 1997. Play on home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 and is an average offensive team scoring 4.7 to 5.2 runs/game facing a good AL starter sporting an ERA<=4.20 and after a combined score of 4 runs or less. Seattle has had to go to the bullpen far too often this season. Angels are a solid 13-6 (+9.6 Units) against the money line versus an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season; 25-12 (+15.3 Units) against the money line versus an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better over the last 2 seasons. Seattle is a weak 27-53 (-28.5 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games over the last 2 seasons. Like so many starters the key for Seattle’s starter Vargas is getting strike one. After 0-1, hitters are batting just 211 with 10 K’s in 38 AB. After 1-0, hitters have 2 HR and 7 BB with just 5 K’s in 33 AB. Anaheim does have hitters wiling to go after the first pitch as well and being aggressive early in the game against Vargas will pay off. Take Anaheim.
LT Profits
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants
Joel Pineiro of the St. Louis Cardinals and Matt Cain of the San Francisco Giants are both in sparkling form right now, and we do not expect that to change tonight with the spacious dimensions of AT&T park in San Francisco.
Cain has had the label of being the unluckiest pitcher in baseball the last couple of years, as he has always pitched very well but with a pathetic offense behind him. He is finally getting some support this year though, and as a result, he has a fine 5-1 record to go with his customary 2.40 ERA. Cain has allowed one run or less in three of his last four starts, and he is coming off of a Complete Game 5-1 win over the Seattle Mariners.
Meanwhile, Joel Pineiro appears to have regained the amazing form he displayed when he first came up with the Seattle Mariners a few years ago. He dominated the Chicago Cubs two starts back, tossing a Complete Game three-hit shutout, and he followed that up with a Quality Start in a tough luck 3-2 loss to the Kansas City Royals on Sunday. Most incredibly, he has not walked a single batter in his last four starts (28 innings), and he has issued one walk in his last 41.2 frames.
Finally, neither of these offenses is tearing things up right now, with the Giants averaging just 3.40 runs in their last 10 games and the Cardinals not doing much better in this same span at 3.50, so runs should be at a premium tonight.
Pick: Cardinals/Giants Under 7.5
Tom Freese
St. Louis at San Francisco
St. Louis starter Joel Pineiro has a 9-0 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. The Cardinals are 8-1 UNDER their last 9 games and they are 13-3 UNDER off a win. The Redbirds are 5-0 UNDER in Game 1 off a series. San Francisco starter Matt Cain has allowed 2 or less runs in 7 of his 9 starts this year. The Giants are 12-5-2 UNDER off a win and they are 7-3 UNDER their last 10 games overall. San Francisco is 5-1 UNDER on Friday. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Cain vs. Pineiro)
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Pittsburgh Pirates -125
If you haven't heard of Ross Ohlendorf, it's high time you find out. He has been sensational for the Bucs this season, especially at home where he is 3-1 with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of just 0.917. He certainly has the edge against the Astros Brian Moehler, who is 1-3 with an ERA of 8.31 on the season. The Astros have lost 7 in a row and the off day figures to have done them no favors as they are 1-11 in their last 12 games following an off day. The Pirates will be glad to step back on their home turf following a long road trip as they are 5-1 in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. The Pirates have been a better club than the Astros this season so we'll back the better team at home with the better starter on the hill at a nice price.
Fast Cash Freddy Wills
FL MARLINS / NY METS
Take NY METS
There is no fooling how well the Mets have hit LHP this year. In fact they lead the league with a .337 average and 7.73 RC/27outs. They will face rookie Sean West who was recalled from AA when the Marlins sent down Nolasco. He pitched 5IP of shutout ball vs. the Rays in his debut. The Rays hitting just .284 vs. LHP left 5 runners in scoring position against West. In my opinion the juice will be out of the arm of West as he'll now make his second MLB start.
On the mound for the Mets is Mike Pelfrey. I absolutely love backing him here. He pitched extremely well against the Red Sox and now has a 2.70 ear in 20IP with a 1.1whip in his last 3 starts. People were all over this guy early on as a 1 year wonder, but I knew he would come back strong in May. He is a sinker ball pitcher. Sinker ball pitchers always struggle early in the year. Now that he has the movement on his pitches he is primed to go on a nice run here. Pelfrey has struggled against the Marlins in the past, but his last 2 starts were good enough to get a win in my opinion 6.2IP 2ER, and 6IP 3ER. If he pitches the same way here today the Mets will win this game with their bullpen.Florida hitting just 3.58 Runs/9 in their last 5 vs. RHP.
Take Mets -165
VEGAS EXPERTS
New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians
The Cleveland Indians completed a four-game sweep over the defending American League champions Tampa Bay. The four-game winning streak is the longest of the season for the Tribe and tonight they will have their ace Cliff Lee taking the mound and Andy Pettitte and the New York Yankees. Despite a 1-4 TSR at home, Lee has been very good with a 1.75 ERA in the five starts. His counterpart Pettitte has had trouble over the years with the Indians as he has a 6-11 TSR with nearly a 5.00 ERA since 1997. Cleveland is 18-7 SU after winning three or more games in a row.
Play on: Cleveland
Free Selection from Totals4U
Friday's free selection: San Diego/Colorado under 9 1/2
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
270 - 174 run 60 %
15 wins - 4 losses winning run (over 75%)
FRI pick: Cleveland Indians
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EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
Game: Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets
(522) Denver Nuggets -5.5
The Nuggets will be fighting for their lives as they try to
force a seventh game on Sunday and I fully expect that
to happen. Denver will respond with a huge game and
cover this number. Lay the points with the Nuggets.
2009 Free Selections Record 80-65 (55.2%)
8)
Matt Rivers
For Friday take the price back with the Mariners.
Obviously Mike Scioscia's Angels are much better overall than the visitors from Seattle but at this takeback and the way John Lackey and the Angels have been performing, or not performing, backing this dog is worth the price of admission.
Both Jason Vargas and Lackey missed the beginning of the season and shockingly enough it's been the lefty who has been much better as the ERA in the 1's shows. I'm not an idiot and do understand that Lackey is a total All-Star, despite the ERA over six right now, with great stuff but he has not really shown it since returning and even with Vlad Guerrero back the Halos were once again offensivelt challenged in that last losing series against the White Series.
Ozzie Guillen's squad took the first two games as the Anaheim bats were silenced and in the third game after falling behind 1-0 the Halos scored three runs in the sixth inning in the 3-1 victory and salvage one game in the set. Anaheim is never a juggernaut with the lumber and right now are once again showing why.
Vargas is a semi journeyman but he was alright with Florida a few seasons back and does have an upside as we have been seeing. The Southpaw has got to be feeling pretty good about himself and he may not have a great offense supporting him but Ichiro, Beltre, Branyan and the M's do have enough to scrape a few across and pull this thing out.
More times than not it's a no-brainer that the home Angels win this game as they are the definite superior squad. But to boast the hotter pitcher up against a slumping lineup makes me fine with this pup at this price.
Nick Parsons
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays +110
On Friday, the quickly fading Jays will try to avoid their 10th consecutive loss as they face first-place Boston and Wakefield at Rogers Centre in the start of a three-game set. The Blue Jays (27-23) hope a return home will help their fortunes after a dismal 0-9 road trip. They're 16-6 in Toronto this season, including a four-game sweep of the Chicago White Sox from May 15-18. The bats finally woke up in support of ace Roy Halladay on Wednesday, but the bullpen blew a five-run lead in the eighth inning and a two-run edge in the 11th en route to a 12-10 defeat; look for Toronto to play well in front of the hometown crowd as I believe the Jay's offer us good value today. Toronto moves to 6-0 (+6.2 units) at home when the total is 10 to 10 1/2!
Alex Smart
St. Louis Cardinals +110
The Cardinals' enter this road tilt against the San Francisco Giants playing some very good baseball winning 7 of their L/9 overall. The pitching rotation is to thank for their positive performances ,as is evident by a combined 0.88 ERA during that above mentioned span. At the same time the offense has been extremely inconsistent offense scoring an average of just 3.4 runs via a .228 BA. With the pitching in top form , and the addition of formerly injured key sluggers Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick to the batting order the Cardinals look like a dangerous opponent for any and all comers as underdogs, even against a hurler like Matt Cain who is 0-1 with a 9.58 ERA in two career starts against the Cardinals. ( It must be noted that Cains team is 11-27 when he starts against a above .500 team over the last few seasons for a bankroll depleting .29% conversion rate on the moneyline). Play on the Cardinals in the underdog role ( J. Peneiro 3.27 ERA L/3 starts)
Vernon Croy
Take the Philadelphia Phillies -166
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and it would be a premium play for me but it is over my personal limit of -150. The Phillies are a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 games after allowing 5 or more runs in their previous game and they are a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games after a loss. The Phillies are 10-2 in their last 12 home games against a lefty starter and they are a perfect 4-0 in J.A. Happ's (2-0, 2.60 ERA) last 4 starts when the posted total is 9.0 to 10.5. The Washington Nationals (13-33, 6-17 Road) are just 2-11 in their last 13 road games as a dog of +151 to +200 and they are also just 1-5 in their last 6 trips to Philadelphia. The Nationals are just 5-22 in their last 27 games against a division opponent and they are just 9-24 in their last 33 games when playing with a day off. The Nationals are hitting just .233 as a team over their last 7 games while averaging just 3.3 rpg and they will struggle against Happ who allowed just 4 hits in his only start this season against the Yankees in a hitters park. Take the Philadelphia Phillies.
Frank Jordan
Seattle Mariners vs. LAA Angels
Play: LAA Angels
John Lackey is 1-0 with a 6 era, but that era is inflated when he hit a batter after two pitches in his first start back and was thrown out of the game that runner came around to score. He pitched much better since then with two good starts. In this one look for Lackey to get a win in his first home start of the year over the lowly Mariners. Play LA Angels
Doc's Sports
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals
Brian Bannister has mystified hitters since being recalled from Triple-A. The Royals have won six of seven games he's started this season. Among the starters, only Zach Greinke has a better record and ERA. Don’t forget to sign-up for Doc’s Sports AL Game of the Month, which will go on Saturday. Let 38 years of handicapping experience work for you.
Rocketman
Florida Marlins vs. New York Mets
Play: Florida Marlins
Florida is 15-8 against division opponents this year. Florida is 3-1 this year as a road underdog of +150 to +175. NY Mets are 23-28 last 3 years as a home favorite of -150 to -175. NY Mets are 40-46 last 3 years at home when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. Florida has won 3 of their last 4 overall. Florida bullpen has a very good 2.07 ERA on the road this year. Sean West has a 3.60 ERA overall this year. Pelfrey is 1-5 with a 6.12 ERA overall vs Florida since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Florida tonight!