Lenny Del Genio
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers
We correctly projected that the Lakers would find their shooting touch in Game 5 and they shot 48.5% from the floor in that win and cover. Meanwhile, we also predicted that the Nuggets would continue their shooting slide and they made only 38.5% of their attempts. It was also the third straight game where they made less than 30% of their three-point attempts and sixth in eight games vs. the Lakers this season. Lakers are an outstanding bet as an underdog, going 24-11 ATS when getting the points over the last two seasons. Turn out the lights, the partys over Denver. Take LA Lakers.
Wunderdog
Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Tampa Bay -140
The Twins are one game shy of .500 for the season, but that doesn't speak of the problems they have had on the road. The Twins come to Tampa with the fewest road wins in baseball at five, while dropping 14. They are just 1-9 over their last 10 games on the road, and in the nine losses have been outscored 27-52. They will face the Rays’ ace, James Shields who has been lights out at home over his career. The last three seasons have seen Shields produce an 18-6 mark at home, with his worst season being an ERA of 3.53, but last year 2.59, and this season-to-date 2.89. He squares-off against Scott Baker who has been awful on the road, posting an 0-2 mark and 9.31 ERA. The Twins’ struggles against the American League East have been ongoing, where they enter this one just 16-35 in their last 51 games. The Rays are 22-7 in Shield's last 29 home starts, and they have a big edge in this one. I’ll take the Rays on the moneyline here.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers +106
Cincy has been strong on the road this season and is riding a 4-game win streak, but I like the Brew Crew to get back in the win column at home tonight. The Reds own a 3-2 lead in the season series and the Brewers have dropped 5 of their last 6 to fall out of first place. They'll be very hungry to start getting things turned around here. Milwaukee is a sensational 15-5 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season and Plays Against Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CINCINNATI) - NL team with a low on-base percentage (<=.350) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP <=1.350), in May games are 109-47 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Beer Makers in this bounce back spot.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals +110
The Cards have won 7 of 9 and I like them to keep right on rolling on the road tonight. There's no question that the Giants' Cain is off to a sensational start, but I don't think he'll get the run support he needs tonight as his team is scoring only 3.9 runs per game against righty starters this season. Plus, Cain is 0-2 against the money line when starting against St. Louis with an ERA of 9.57 and a WHIP of 1.644 in his career. Pineiro has been solid of late with an ERA of 3.27 over his last 3 starts and the Cardinals are 5-1 in his last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Giants are 6-17 in Cain's last 23 starts during game 1 of a series and 9-25 in their last 34 vs. the National League Central. Take the Cards tonight.
MTi Sports
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
The Reds are 0-5 since April 24, 2009 after a 5+ run win and it is the first game of a series and the Brewers are 8-0 as a favorite in the first game of the series. Consider Milwaukee.
Randle the Handle
Boston –1½ +1.49 over TORONTO
The Jays sudden skid needs no introduction, as they’re at nine losses and counting and things can’t get much worse. Yeah, they’re at home but the trouble started when they went into Boston and faced Tim Wakefield. Prior to that trip to Boston they were seeing beach balls but since facing Wakefield they’ve been seeing BB’s and aside from a 10-run outburst in their last game they had scored just 16 combined runs in eight games. What makes this so interesting is that the media has been drilling it into their minds that facing the knuckleballer completely messed up their timing. Well, they finally got their “timing” back with 10 runs on Wednesday and they’ll face the knuckleballer again. If nothing else, it’s a big psychological edge for Wakefield and a big psychological disadvantage for the Jays hitters to overcome. The Jays may break out of its funk at home but winning is so much tougher when you’re losing and this is not the best time for the Jays to run into Wakefield and the juggernaut Red Sox. Play: Boston –1½ +1.49 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +1.58 over NY METS (1st 5 innings)
Big prices are forthcoming on the Marlins all weekend long and one has to believe the Mets are a little vulnerable right now without Reyes, Beltran and Ryan Church. Reyes has always been the catalyst of this offense and the Mets record when he’s not in the line-up is not impressive at all. With those three out, David Wright is not getting as many good pitches to hit and is in the midst of a 4-19 funk. Sean West makes just his second start of the year and this guy has an outstanding arm to go along with some nasty stuff. He’s a big lefty (6’5) and features a 94-mph fastball, a circle change and a hard slider and he can throw them all for strikes. He did walk four in his major-league debut but that can be attributed to nerves. Still, he allowed just two earned runs to the Rays and struck out five. The kid can pitch and has a chance to stay at this level for years and years. Mike Pelfrey beat the Marlins on July 8, 2006, but has since gone 0-5 with a 6.45 ERA against them. Pelfrey failed to pitch past the fifth inning three times in five starts versus Florida last season, going 0-4 with a 7.11 ERA. Win, lose or draw, the Marlins have to be considered good value and because West will likely only go five or six innings the play is the Marlins in the first five. Play: Florida +1.58 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
Atlanta -½ +1.05 over ARIZONA (1st 5 innings)
This one is all about playing against Jon Garland, a guy who looks like he’s throwing batter practice out there. Garland has about the least intimidating stuff in the majors and Chase Field does not help his cause. This is a hitter’s park where the gaps are huge and the balls carry. Garland gives up a ton of hits, he’s not a strikeout pitcher and he issues too many walks, all big factors to his current 6.99 ERA at home in five starts. In fact, over 28 frames at home he’s allowed 38 hits and five bombs, while striking out just nine and walking 13. The opposition has hit .328 off him at Chase Field and his chances of success against the Braves, or anyone else for that matter are slim at best. The Braves will very likely put up some runs here early and that’s all there is to it. Oh, Jair Jurrjens is a quality pitcher, making this the biggest pitching mismatch on the board. See ya at the cashier’s booth about 11:00 PM. Play: Atlanta in the first five innings -½ +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles –1.02 over CHICAGO
The Cubbies and Ted Lilly favored over Chad Billingsley and the Dodgers makes no sense whatsoever. For one, L.A. is 11-3 against southpaws, they’re 34-15 overall, they’ve won five in a row on the road including yesterday’s opener and they’ve now won eight of its past nine away from Chavez Ravine. It gets better. Billingsley is a monster, who has been lights out all year. In fact, the team is 8-2 when he starts and he comes in here with a 1.63 road ERA. Meanwhile, the Cubs have dropped nine of 11 and they’ve scored two runs or less in seven of its last 10 games. Lilly can be effective for sure, as his 1.29 home ERA will attest to. However, he’s 1-2 over his last three starts with a 5.19 ERA and in no way in a million years does he have an edge over Billingsley. Call me crazy but this is a must bet at this price, as both Billingsley and the Dodgers are the straight goods while the Cubbies can’t get out of its own way right now. Play: Los Angeles –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
INDIANCOWBOY
Take Toronto Bluejays -103 over the Boston Redsox
For today's comp selection to hopefully make it 3 in a row, take the Bluejays over the Redsox. Wakefield gave up 1 run in 8 innings in his last start vs. the Jays which was a contest that he was on a bounce-back against Anaheim for when he had given up 7 runs. The Jays face Wake again today and they are likely to get to him early as usually when a pitcher has great success against a team his first go around, he struggles in his next effort on the road against them. Janssen has finally returned to the Jays lineup and he was one of the stars that the team is looking to finally show his potential. He was pitcihng great in the majors a couple years ago but injuries sidelined him. He finally made his much awaited start back in the league and pitched extremely well against the Braves but the Jays still lost. Janssen still went 6 innings and gave up 8 hits and 3 runs. He looked a bit shaky at times, but that is expected in his first start back. Toronto looks to finally bounce-back at home after getting roughed up by Boston, Atlanta and Baltimore on the road and I expect them to do better in the beginning of their home stand today.
LARRY NESS
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Boston Red Sox
The Blue Jays began a nine-game road trip back on May 19 with a 27-14 record, which had them in first place in the AL East. The trip opened in Fenway Park and the Blue Jays lost 2-1. Nothing changed the rest of the trip, as the Blue Jays finally return home (the Red Sox are their opponents, again), having lost nine in a row and with a 27-23 mark. They are now in third-place, 1 1/2 games behind the Yanks and two game back of the Red Sox. Boston is much tougher in Fenway (17-6) than it is on the road (11-14) but the Red Sox cannot be unhappy with splitting a four-game series in the Metrodome this week, against the Twins. They also would like nothing more than continue Toronto's slide and the good news is, they'll miss Roy Halladay over the weekend. Tim Wakefield gets the start and he was the starter of the May 19th game, which began all of Toronto's recent woes. He allowed five hits in eight innings of Boston's 2-1 win and on the year is 6-2 with a 3.99 ERA in nine starts (team is 7-2). Wakefield opened the 2009 season with a 1.86 ERA in his first four starts and while he hasn't been able to keep that pace up, it's hard to argue with him winning four of his last five starts. It sure doesn't hurt the vet that he's fourth in the majors in run support, getting 8.28 runs per nine innings. The Blue Jays will counter with Casey Janssen, who will be making just his second major league appearance since 2007. Janssen went 6-10 with a 5.07 ERA in 19 appearances (17 starts) for the Jays in 2006 (team was 7-10 in his starts). He was then 2-3 with a 2.35 ERA in 70 appearances (no starts) in 2007, while serving as the team's setup man. However, he missed all of last season while recovering from shoulder surgery (torn labrum). He compiled an 0.76 ERA in five minor league starts between Class A and Double-A before pitching six innings against the Braves last Saturday in his first outing of the season after being removed from the DL. He pitched well enough to keep the Jays in the game but Toronto couldn't score enough. Janssen allowed three ERs on eight hits and one walk in six innings but he also didn't strike anyone out. Who wants any part of the Jays right now, until they win? Take Boston.
Mike Rose
Denver Nuggets -5.5
The Nuggets couldnt quite come through in the clutch in Game 5 and took another bad loss in this series. Denver has shown that they could be the better team here, but have continuously turned the ball over in late game situations. Nuggets G Chauncey Billups had his worst outing of this series contributing just 12 points and five assists in 39 minutes. Before Game 5, Billups had been scoring 21.7 PPG in this series and needs to get at least that number for Denver to have a chance tonight. The Nuggets are 8-1 ATS in their L/9 games when playing as the favorite. Denver is an impressive 13-2 ATS in the 2009 NBA Playoffs and 21-6 ATS in their L/27 games overall.
The Lakers managed to dominate the fourth quarter 27-18 in Game 5 and earn their third win of this series to put them one game from the NBA Finals. In their three wins the Lakers have won the fourth by a combined score of 90-63, erasing late game deficits in each game. LA G Kobe Bryant has shown his best stuff in this series averaging 33.8 PPG and making big shots in crunch time to lead his team to victories. While Bryant scored just 22 points in Game 5 he made up for it by dishing out a personal series high eight assists. The Lakers are 2-3 ATS in this series and 8-9 ATS in the 2009 NBA Playoffs.
This is the last chance for Billups, Carmelo Anthony, and the Nuggets; look for them to dig down deep and pull out another ATS victory in this contest. Melo had 31 points in the loss on Wednesday and will no doubt put up another big number to help his team win tonight. The Nuggets are 7-1 ATS on their home floor in the NBA Playoffs and will force a classic Game 7 with the Lakers.
Rob Homyak
L.A. Lakers at Denver Nuggets
5 Units on UNDER
Play UNDER ORLANDO on the total in All games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game The record is 15 Overs and 30 Unders this season (+13.50 units)
Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games 66-44 over the last 5 seasons. (60.0% | 17.6 units)
The under has hit in 4 of 5 games in this series and is 10-2 in the last 12, including 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Denver. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the LA Lakers last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver. 8 of their last 9 playoff games have gone UNDER, and they have played 10 of their last 12 games against the Denver Nuggets UNDER the posted total. The under is 5-1 in Denver?s last six against Pacific Division teams.
JACK JONES
Pittsburgh Pirates -131 over Houston Astros
Houston has lost seven straight games so laying this small number at home doesn't look like a problem to me. Brian Moehler has made three starts on the road this year and has given up 10 runs in 12.3 innings. Ross Ohlendorf has given up just 8 runs on 18 hits in 24 innings at home this year, good for a 3.00 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Houston's offense is horrible with only 3 runs per game over the last seven and 3.9 runs per game against right-handers. Lay the small number here.
TEDDY COVERS
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: San Francisco Giants
San Francisco’s Matt Cain has finally turned the corner into a consistent dominator. Cain has even outpitched teammate Tim Lincecum through the first two months of the season, the Giants best starter. He’s thrown seven quality outings in his nine previous starts in ’09.
Most importantly, the Giants spotty offense has finally started to produce for him after two years that Cain spent as arguably the most hard luck pitcher in baseball. San Francisco has scored four runs or more in seven of Cain’s nine previous starts, and they are 6-1 in those games. Coming off their first series sweep of the season against Atlanta earlier in the week, in which the offense pounded out 18 runs, the Giants are a team on the uptick right now.
This line is very short because the Cardinals are expected to get a pair of key bats back into the lineup this evening. Ryan Ludwick is coming off the DL, expected to get the start, and Rick Ankiel, who’s played only once since May 4th could be back in action as well.
Even with either or both of those guys back in the lineup, St Louis isn’t likely to score runs in bunches here. The Cards attack has been anemic for weeks, scoring just 84 runs in 24 games this month (3.5 per contest), held to three runs or less in 13 of those 24 games.
Cardinals starter Joel Piniero is pitching a day ahead of schedule after Kyle Lohse was scratched with a bruise on his forearm. Piniero has been lit up in both previous career starts against the Giants: 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA. He’s allowed four runs or more and taken the loss in each of his last three road starts, a trend that we can expect to continue this evening. 2* Take San Francisco.
Jrtips
MINNESOTA TWINS vs. TAMPA BAY RAYS
The Twins scored 23 runs in a three-game sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers before totaling 15 in a four-game split with the Boston Red Sox, but were held to four runs in the last two games, including a 3-1 loss Thursday. Minnesota had fewer than six hits for the first time since May 6th. The Twins should get back on track as they have scored at least three runs in each of their five games against Tampa's Shields (3-4, 3.63 ERA), including a 4-3 home win April 28th. The Tampa Bay right-hander gave up five earned runs in his last start at home against Minnesota and is allowing at least 10 hits in three of his last four starts. He yielded a season-high 12 hits and four runs Sunday at Florida. The Rays (23-27) are trying to snap a season-high five-game skid that ended with a four-game sweep at the hands of the Cleveland Indians. Tampa Bay, will look to get their our mojo back at home where they have won five of their last seven at Tropicana Field and are 4-2 in their last six there against the Twins. Minnesota, which has won six of its last eight overall and will start Scott Baker (2-5, 6.32), who will try to win back-to-back starts for the first time this season. The right-hander threw a season-high 8 1/3 innings Sunday to earn the victory in a 6-3 win over Milwaukee. Baker was reached for four runs over six innings in a home loss April 27th to the Rays and is 0-2 with a 9.31 ERA on the road. The twins have scored at least 3-5 runs against Sheilds and the Rays hitters had batting practice against Baker when they last faced him. Look for Tampa to get bats back on track finally playing at home after a long road trip.
TAKE OVER 9 runs
Yankee Capper
Kansas City Royals -120
Houston/Pittsburgh Over 9.5
Philadelphia Phillies -160