George Mason among top mid-majors
By: Willie Bee
Weekend must-wins abound on the schedules for college basketball mid-majors. Next week when the big boys are closing their regular seasons, conferences like the West Coast, Missouri Valley, Colonial and Horizon will begin their postseason tournaments.
Thirty-one slots in this year's 68-team field are promised out to conference champions and the remaining 37 openings will be fought for tooth-&-nail by all, especially the middies. We've had the hype of 11 Big East schools making this year's tourney; 9-10 getting in definitely isn't out of the question, roughly a quarter of the at-large openings.
Too much remains to be determined when it comes to making any final decisions. An upset in the Big South could lead to a tough cut from the Horizon while the unexpected in the Pac-10 or SEC the rest of the way could open the door for someone in the Missouri Valley.
Still, there are some mid-major conferences that clearly will be in play for multiple tickets to the dance. The four that seem destined to have at least one at-large bid extended are the Colonial, West Coast, Horizon and Ivy League.
Let's start with the Ivy League.
No foolin', that preseason notion of two Ivy Leaguers attending the dance could come true. With no postseason tourney, the March 5 meeting in Boston between Harvard and Princeton should serve as the conference title tilt.
If neither is upset before then, the Crimson and Tigers will enter that matchup with one conference loss each, and 23-24 wins overall. Harvard's lone Ivy defeat came at Princeton on Feb. 4, a 65-61 setback as a 2½-point underdog. Princeton is off its only loss of the conference campaign, an embarrassing 75-65 upset at Brown as eight-point chalk.
Both teams head into weekend play with decent places in the RPI, but lacking on the Ken Pomeroy rankings. The loser of that March 5 game will need to have rolled over their other remaining opponents, but two entries is a strong possibility for the Ivy League.
The West Coast Conference is also a bubble group as far as sending two to the dance. The St. Mary's Gaels and Gonzaga Bulldogs are both worthy, but one could get squeezed out. All signs point to the two rivals meeting twice more, the first Thursday night (Feb. 24) for a regular season matchup and the next coming in the conference title game in Las Vegas a week or so later.
Both squads made the tourney last season, St. Mary's bowing out in the Sweet 16 to Baylor, 72-49, as a five-point underdog and Gonzaga exiting the round before that in an 87-65 loss to Syracuse who was favored by seven. Despite their resume that lists 12 consecutive NCAA appearances, the 'Zags might need two wins over the Gaels to make it, and if that happens it could mean St. Mary's gets left out despite a strong season overall.
Three deserving Horizon League squads are hopeful, but only two invites are likely to go out. Cleveland State holds a slim half-game lead presently over both Butler and Valparaiso. The Milwaukee Panthers are also lurking, but their only chance would be as the automatic qualifier meaning two of the previous three could be left to the NIT.
The Colonial Athletic Association also has three solid candidates plus a few bubble squads; like the Horizon League, however, there may only be two openings.
George Mason, the darlings of the 2006 NCAA Tournament when the Patriots made their shocking run into the Final Four, will get in either as the conference champ or as an at-large. The Patriots currently are ranked No. 1 on the mid-majors list, 17th according to the RPI. Old Dominion also could get an at-large invite, assuming the Monarchs at least reach the conference championship.
Virginia Commonwealth's only chance will be to earn the automatic bid. Keep an eye on Hofstra next week when the postseason tourney gets underway in Richmond, VA. The Pride could become the proverbial fly in the ointment and knock either ODU or VCU out of the mix.
There doesn't appear to be a Butler among this year's crop of mid-majors. The Bulldogs were a true top-10 squad in 2009-10 and had the talent to make a deep run in the tournament, which they did. Three teams, however, do appear capable of making a run into the Sweet 16: St. Mary's, George Mason and Bucknell.
The recent two-game slip by St. Mary's is worrisome. Still, the Gaels have decent players inside and a great court general in senior Mickey McConnell. It all comes down to exorcising Gonzaga from its run, something that would be a huge lift for the team going into the NCAA Tournament.
George Mason also is well-rounded and has some upperclassmen that won't be intimidated easily. The Patriots' biggest problem will be coming up a team that is strong in the paint and can post up a solid pair of big men.
I've probably jinxed the Bison by including them in this group, but there's still something about this Bucknell team that intrigues me. Mike Muscala is a great presence on the inside and the team shoots lights out from the charity stripe. The Bison are at least worth a look for a cover or two in the early stages of the tourney.