Griffin lone savior in '09 Draft
By Brian Edwards
The NBA off-season officially got underway Tuesday when San Antonio and Milwaukee agreed in principle to a trade that’ll send Richard Jefferson to the Spurs. In return, the Bucks will acquire Bruce Bowen, Kurt Thomas and Fabricio Oberto. According to multiple reports, Milwaukee will most likely release all three players in order to create enough cap room to sign restricted free agents Charlie Villanueva and Ramon Sessions.
Obviously, that transaction (assuming it becomes official) is a huge score for the aging Spurs, who were eliminated from the playoffs by the Mavericks in the first round. And Bowen will return to the Spurs after the Bucks buy out his contract.
Washington and Minnesota jumped into the fray Tuesday night when the T-Wolves sent Mike Miller and Randy Foye to the Wizards for three players of minimal significance and the No. 5 selection. The T-wolves, who don’t have a coach and are under new leadership with David Kahn now calling the shots, have four first-round selections.
Sportsbook.com is offering bettors a number of chances to wager on the 2009 NBA Draft. Some bets pertain to teams, while others involve specific players and the conferences or schools they hail from.
For instance, the ‘over/under’ for Big East players taken in the first round is 6 ½. However, if you’re bullish on the ‘over,’ you must lay an expensive minus-300 price (risk $300 to win $100), while ‘under’ backers can cash a plus-200 ticket (risk $100 to win $200). The total for ACC players going in the first round is 5 ½ ‘over’ (minus-135).
Sportsbook.com also has players matched up with each other for who will be selected first. The proposition wager for Stephen Curry and Jonny Flynn has the Davidson product as the minus-170 ‘chalk.’ There’s a 40-cent line for this bet, so gamblers can take Flynn from the ‘Cuse at plus-130 (risk $100 to win $130).
UConn’s Hasheem Thabeet is a minus-300 favorite to be drafted before Arizona State’s James Harden, who is plus-200 on the comeback. Also, UNC’s Tyler Hansbrough is a minus-300 ‘chalk’ in a matchup with Arizona’s Chase Budinger.
There has been some speculation that a few teams are worried about DeJuan Blair’s knees. Blair tore both ACL’s in high school, but he was injury free throughout his time at Pitt. Sportsbook.com has a prop on Blair for whether or not he gets picked within the first 14 selections. The price is minus-160 for Blair to go 14th or higher, while bettors can collect a plus-120 payout if he goes 15th or later.
Curry, who thrilled the nation by leading the Wildcats to the Elite Eight two years ago, is expected to be a lottery pick. The offshore website has betting odds on Curry from 3rd or higher to 15th or lower. If he goes in the first three picks, the payout is plus-1500 (risk $100 to win $1,500).
The shortest odds for Curry (+300) are at the No. 8 slot. The Knicks own that pick and are reportedly high on the son of Dell Curry, who is one of the most prolific 3-point shooters in NBA history. New York is high on Curry regardless, but the fact that he and LeBron James are good friends makes it nearly a given that he won’t slip past the 8th spot. As we all know, the Knicks are poised to make a run at signing LeBron next summer.
If Curry is selected 10th, 11th or 12th, the payout will be plus-700. If he goes 7th or 9th, the number is plus-500.
VegasInsider.com's Chris David isn't sold on Curry at all. David said, "I don’t think he’s big enough or fast enough for this level, at least not on the defensive end where he'll be a liability. But he's the best shooter in the draft and those are hard to find in the NBA."
This is clearly an extremely weak draft. After Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin goes first to the Clippers, all bets are off. Memphis has the No. 2 pick and nobody seems to know what the Grizzlies are going to do. The agents for Spain’s Ricky Rubio and Thabeet have made it clear their clients don’t want to play in Memphis, as both refused to work out for the club.
In an ESPN interview Tuesday, GM Chris Wallace was adamant that his team would not hesitate to take either player if it wishes. The other possibilities are Tyreke Evans, who led the local college team to the Sweet 16 as a freshman, and Harden, a versatile southpaw who sort of reminds me of Sean Elliott. The guess here is that the Grizzlies will go with Thabeet, but I wouldn’t risk a minus-300 price wagering on it. A trade is always a possibility, too.
Rubio is only 18 but he more than held his own against Team USA’s guards in the gold-medal game at the Olympics last year. His passing and ball handling has been compared to Jason Williams, who spent several seasons in Memphis after starting his career in Sacramento.
Evans has great size and athleticism for a guard, but his perimeter jumper is far from a finished product. Thabeet is ready to be an excellent rebounder and shot blocker right now, but the knock on him is his offense (or lack thereof). Thabeet is extremely limited in terms of back-to-the-basket moves on the low block, but it’s worth mentioning that his free-throw shooting rapidly improved at UConn and he’s a decent shooter from 12-15 feet out.
What will Oklahoma City do with the No. 3 pick? At No. 4, Sacramento almost certainly will take a point guard. Will Rubio still be on the board? Are the Kings willing to take Curry, Flynn or UCLA’s Jrue Holiday this high?
Minnesota now owns picks No.’s 5, 6, 18 and 28 so Kahn has all sorts of options in his debut on the national stage. Evans is a combo guard the T-wolves could be eyeing, while Harden might also still be on the board. Then again, it could be Curry or Flynn, or they might be talking to Memphis about moving up to No. 2 by packaging one of the early picks with the No. 18 or 28 selection.
These questions and more will be answered Thursday night. Between now and then, look for more moves to be made.
**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**
Most Underrated Players: VCU’s Eric Maynor, Pitt’s Sam Young, LSU’s Marcus Thornton, Marquette’s Jerel McNeal and FSU’s Toney Douglas.
Most Overrated Players: Gonzaga’s Austin Daye, UCLA’s Darren Collison and Ohio State’s BJ Mullens.
Second-Round Steals who can make impacts as a rookie: Patty Mills (St. Mary’s), Missouri’s Leo Lyons and Temple's Dionte Christmas.
Draft’s biggest wild card: Louisville’s Earl Clark. He has the size and athleticism to be Josh Smith, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s a bust, either.
If Atlanta isn't going to re-sign Mike Bibby, I think it should go with Douglas from FSU, Jeff Teague from Wake Forest or Maynor of VCU. For next season, I'd rather have Douglas than Rubio, Lawson, Holiday and Flynn, all of whom are considered top-15 picks, while most draftniks have Douglas as a late first-round selection. Teague is an explosive combo guard, but Maynor and Douglas were more consistent in college this past season. Teague destroyed UNC's Lawson in a head-to-head meeting in Winston Salem in early January. In my opinion, there's little separation between the trio of Teague, Douglas and Maynor compared to Rubio, Lawson, Holiday and Flynn.
With Curry, VI’s David sees him as Jason Terry in a best-case scenario, J.J. Redick at the other end of the spectrum. With Terrence Williams from Louisville, David sees a Josh Howard ideally for the team who takes him. On the flip side according to David, Williams could be more like Rashard McCants in a worst-case scenario.
As of Wednesday, Sportsbook.com had updated its odds for who LeBron James will play for during the 2010-2011 campaign. The Cavs are the minus-175 favorites, while the Knicks have plus-300 odds. The Nets are at plus-400 and the Pistons are the plus-700 longshots (risk $100 to win $700).
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