Grizzlies-Spurs Outlook
By Chris David
Western Conference First Round
No. 1 San Antonio vs. No. 8 Memphis
Series Price: San Antonio -370 Memphis +310
Series Format: San Antonio 2-2-1-1-1
Skinny: Did you know that most books had San Antonio listed as high as a 40/1 choice to win the NBA Finals at the start of the season? It's understandable, considering the Spurs didn't make any major offseason moves and most pundits believed the Western Conference went through the two-time defending champions, L.A. Lakers.
Up until the last day of the regular season, San Antonio owned the best record in the league and was clearly the most consistent team. However, the Spurs still don't get much respect and clearly isn't in this series as the top seed in the West.
What's amazing about San Antonio is that the big three of Tony Parker (17.5 PPG, 6.6 APG), Manu Ginobili (17.4 PPG) and Tim Duncan (13.5 PPG, 8.9 RPG) didn't exactly have stellar seasons and some would say it was Duncan's worst in his 15-year career.
So why are the Spurs so good? They're deeper than any team in the league and they can shoot with the best of them. As a team, the Spurs shot a league-best 40 percent from 3-point land and most of the damage comes from bench players Gary Neal and Matt Bonner. While those two are the gunners, the bangers include DeJuan Blair (8.3 PPG, 7 RPG) and veteran Antonio McDyess (5.4 RPG). Plus they have complimentary players in George Hill (11.6 PPG) and Richard Jefferson (11 PPG) that can create as well. San Antonio was once known as a great defensive team but that's not the case with Greg Popovich's squad this season (98 PPG). To put things in perspective, the Spurs have never allowed over 90 PPG during their four championship runs under Pops.
Is Memphis the right team to pull off the upset? Head coach Lionel Hollins has done a great job overcoming injuries and has gotten the most out of every player on his roster. Forward Zach Randolph (20.1 PPG, 12.2 RPG) had a career season for the Grizzlies and really stepped it up when Rudy Gay (19.8 PPG) was ruled 'out' for the season with a shoulder injury. The backcourt has received nice production out of Mike Conley (13.7 PPG, 6.2 APG) and O.J. Mayo (11.3 PPG).
Defensively, the Grizzlies lean on the athletic Tony Allen, who is arguably the toughest on-ball defender in the game. Marc Gasol (11.7 PPG) might not receive the notoriety of his brother (Pau - L.A. Lakers) but he's a lot tougher and has shown his defensive prowess (1.7 blocks) in the middle.
Two weaknesses that stick out with the Grizz are being able to find "the guy" at the end of the game with Gay gone, plus they don't shoot well from 3-point land (33.4%). Defense and size can help you in the playoffs but sooner or later you have to score and that's where San Antonio holds a big edge.
Head-to-Head: The regular season series between the pair was knotted at two games a piece but the Grizzlies covered the number in all four. The home team came out on top each time and you can see that shooting was the all-important factor in each battle, especially for Memphis. The Grizz shot 55 and 52 percent in their home wins, but only 37 and 44 percent in the two losses at San Antonio.
Injuries also played a major part. Parker missed the Mar. 1 loss at Memphis while Duncan sat out the setback on Mar. 27, plus Ginobili left early in that affair too with an injury. It should also be noted that Memphis was without Gay for all four of the encounters.
Gambling Notes: Just looking at the opening number (Spurs -6) for Game 1 and the series price (Spurs -370), some bettors have to be scratching their heads on this one. That status of Ginobili (elbow) is 'doubtful' for the opener, which tells us that the line would probably be closer to eight if he's ready to go. During the season, the Spurs were as high as 11½ at home and they were favorites in their two trips to Memphis as well.
The question you ask yourself is do you bet on arguably the best team or do you bet on the club that's made gamblers the most money this season? Memphis has been a beast ATS (52-29) all season, especially as a road underdog (22-9). Looking for a straight up road win for Memphis might be reaching (16-25), especially when you delve into the 16 victories with only seven coming against playoff squads. On the other hand, San Antonio has been a great wager on the road (25-16 SU, 26-14 ATS) this season.
Total players saw the 'over' go 3-1 and the opener for Game 1 is hovering between 193 and 194 points, which seems a tad low. San Antonio (46-34) led the league with 'over' tickets all season, plus Memphis (41-41) was consistent too. Again, gamblers need to look at the Spurs' defense or lack thereof and the amount of bombs they toss up from 3-point land.
Outlook: NBA enthusiasts should be aware that the eighth seed has only knocked off the top seed three times in playoff history, and two of those instances (Nuggets over Seattle, Knicks over Heat) occurred in best-of-five formats. The other upset was Golden State's shocker over Dallas during the 2007 postseason. Can it happen here? Sure but at the end of the day, talent and experience usually prevail in a seven-game series and the Spurs should get the job done.
We do believe Memphis will win its first playoff game in franchise history and could notch two victories if the shots fall. That's a big if and we expect the Spurs to advance in five games. Gamblers looking to stay away from the healthy series price can take a shot at Sportsbook.com with their Exact Games Props.
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