Hawks-Magic Outlook
By Brian Edwards
Eastern Conference First Round
No. 4 Orlando Magic vs. No. 5 Atlanta Hawks
Series Price: Orlando -600 Atlanta +400
Series Format: Orlando 2-2-1-1-1
Skinny: Orlando has gradually lost its momentum since advancing to the NBA Finals two seasons ago. General Manager Otis Smith made a pair of drastic mid-season moves, shipping Vince Carter, Marcin Gortat and Mikael Pietrus to Phoenix for Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu and Earl Clark. Also, Smith dealt Rashard Lewis to Washington for the mercurial Gilbert Arenas.
Turkoglu hasn’t been able to return to his 2009 form when he was the catalyst in leading the Magic to the finals. Arenas has been a major bust, averaging a meager 8.0 points per game (his previous career low: 19.4 PPG). The former star for the Wizards has shot an abysmal 34.4 percent from the field and 27.5 percent from 3-point land (both career lows). Arenas has scored in double figures just once in the last 10 games he’s played.
But it’s certainly not all gloom and doom for fourth-seeded Orlando. For starters, it still has one of the league’s premier players in center Dwight Howard, who averages team-highs in scoring (22.9 points per game), rebounding (14.1 RPG), field-goal percentage (59.7%) steals (1.4 SPG)and blocked shots (2.4 per contest).
The Magic also have homecourt advantage and are facing a team it absolutely destroyed in an easy four-game sweep in last year’s Eastern Conference semifinals. And, lest we forget, Boston made it to the NBA finals as a No. 4 seed last season.
The key for Stan Vandy’s team to get hot like it did in 2009? I say it’s Jason Richardson, who has been a big-time performer during the playoffs during his underrated career. Richardson was a monster for Golden State in its upset of top-seeded Dallas several years ago, a fact that often gets lost because Baron Davis and Stephen Jackson were even nastier against the Mavs.
And it was Richardson who hit a number of clutch shots for Phoenix last year, including a buzzer shot to send Game 7 into overtime against the Lakers in the West finals. It was Turkoglu who stepped up his play two seasons ago and this team needs another elevated effort from someone outside of Howard. Richardson might be that guy.
Atlanta is looking to win a first-round series for the third consecutive year, but those prospects aren’t nearly as promising this time around. The club is still in search of its first East finals appearance since the franchise came to the ATL.
Mike Woodson took a pink slip when the team needed seven games to dispose of Milwaukee before getting absolutely embarrassed in an easy second-round sweep by Orlando last year. His long-time assistant, Larry Drew, got the job in a yawner of a hire.
And little has changed.
The offense still goes through Joe Johnson, who settles for contested jumpers way too often. After getting a max contract north of $100 million, Johnson’s numbers took a dive. He still leads the team in scoring but his 18.2 points-per-game average was the lowest in his six seasons as a Hawk (previous low: 20.2 PPG).
Since taking the Celtics to seven games three years ago, Atlanta has played awful in the playoffs. It needed seven games to beat Miami in the first round of ’09. Next, the Cavs delivered broom treatment.
Even with Andrew Bogut injured, the Hawks nearly got knocked out of last year’s first round by a Milwaukee squad that finished six games below .500. The Bucks took a 3-2 series lead and led Game 6 at halftime.
What happened against Orlando last summer was a downright disaster. The Hawks had piss-poor body language the entire series and didn’t compete physically.
If that’s going to change, reserve center Zaza Pachulia needs to set the tone. There’s no excuse for Drew to not give Pachulia major minutes. His tough play off the bench was crucial when the Hawks won three home games against the C’s.
Veteran handicapper Mark Franco doesn’t think things are going to be any different this time. Franco, who finished the regular season on a 13-5-1 handicapping run on VI, summed up his thoughts on the Hawks succinctly, “They’re underachieving, undisciplined and poorly coached.”
Franco also told VI, “There’s no reason to think Orlando won’t have an easy time with Atlanta. But that’s going to be it for the Magic, who don’t match up well with Chicago. I just think the Bulls have way too much for them in the second round.”
During Thursday’s edition of the Power Hours, Kevin Rogers wasn’t as harsh on the Hawks. “Atlanta has plenty of talent and it did win three of the four games between these teams. I lean to the Hawks as healthy underdogs in Game 1.
“This is a totally different cast of characters for Orlando this year. The trades really shook up the Magic roster and the Arenas deal hasn’t worked out at all. But I still think Orlando advances, probably in six games.”
Atlanta has been locked into the Eastern Conference’s No. 5 seed since April 5, so its six-game losing streak down the stretch isn’t as bad as it sounds. In the last four games, Larry Drew didn’t play his starters major minutes and they barely touched the court in the fourth quarter.
Head-to-Head: Atlanta won three of four head-to-head meetings with Orlando during the regular season, including an 85-82 home win a 3 ½-point underdog on March 30. Josh Smith scored a game-high 26 points, while Johnson finished with 18.
In the first meeting on Nov. 8, Orlando captured a 93-89 win but Atlanta took the cash as a nine-point underdog. Howard led the winners with 27 points and 11 rebounds.
The Hawks got revenge at Amway Center on Dec. 11, winning 80-74 as 6 ½-point pups. Smith produced 19 points, 13 rebounds, four blocked shots and three assists. Al Horford added 16 points, 10 boards and three blocks.
Atlanta won the other game at Philips Arena by a 91-81 score as a 2 ½-point home ‘dog. Horford had a huge game with 24 points and 11 rebounds. Howard had 19 points and 20 boards, but he also committed six turnovers.
We should mention that the first two encounters, both in Orlando, were before the Magic made their roster adjustments. Also, the ‘under’ cashed in all four meetings.
Gambling Notes: Most books are listing Orlando as an eight-point favorite for Saturday’s Game 1 at Amway Center. The total, as of Thursday night, was 179 1/2 at most spots. Bettors can take the Hawks to win outright for a plus-350 payout (risk $100 to win $350).
As a road underdog during the regular season, Atlanta compiled a 12-13 spread record. However, we should note nine outright victories in underdog situations and the fact that Drew was resting starters in the last two games as road ‘dogs (both of which were non-covers).
Stan Van Gundy’s team is just 19-22 ATS at home. Meanwhile, Atlanta owns a 21-20 spread record on the road.
The ‘under’ has cashed at a 13-3 clip in the Magic’s last 16 home games. For the season, the ‘under’ is 46-34-2 overall, 26-14-1 at home.
The Hawks have seen the ‘under’ go 48-34 overall, 24-17 in their road assignments.
Outlook: Can Atlanta win this series? Yes. Will it? Absolutely not. If the offense would go through Al Horford, a willing passer who shoots 55.7% from the field, the Hawks would be much better served. But the offense instead goes through Joe Johnson, who gets too many isolation plays called for him. These possessions don’t feature much cutting-action and the offense grows stagnant with Johnson dribbling out the shot clock and taking tough shots.
We’ll know soon if Atlanta is ready to compete. If Orlando goes up 2-0 with a pair of pimpslaps, I think the Hawks will mail it in and get swept – again. But if they play well in Orlando, they’ll win at least one of the games at Philips.
I think the Magic win the series in five games.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Joe Johnson shot an abysmal 29.7% from 3-point range during the regular season.
Sportsbook.com has a pair of Hawks listed as candidates for NBA Finals MVP honors. Josh Smith and Joe Johnson both have longshot odds of 200/1. For Orlando, Howard has 15/1 odds. The co-favorites are L.A's Kobe Bryant and Chicago's Derrick Rose. Both have plus-250 odds (risk $100 to win $250).
Orlando has 15/1 odds to win the NBA title at Sportsbook.com. The Hawks are at 200/1.
Denver finished the regular season on a 21-4-1 ATS roll.
Franco likes Oklahoma City to make a bunch of noise. In fact, he’s got the Thunder coming out of the West. “I think the Thunder will take out San Antonio and then beat the Lakers in the West finals. Kevin Durant is the best shooter in the league and he’s going to be great in these playoffs.”
Franco has the Heat beating OKC to win the NBA title.
I’ll go with the Celtics over the Lakers in six games, breaking out the champagne at Staples Center. It’s going to be all about Rajon Rondo (8/1 odds to win MVP of NBA Finals).
vegasinsider.com.