Heat-Sixers Outlook
By Kevin Rogers
No. 2 Miami Heat vs. No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers
Skinny: At one point this season, the Heat were 9-8 and the questions flew on whether or not the Big Three of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh could carry this team to a championship. Miami rebounded nicely with a 49-16 run over the last four months to capture the second seed in the top-heavy Eastern Conference. The Heat accomplished two things by grabbing the second seed as they avoid the rival Knicks in the first round and Miami gets home-court advantage in a potential second round matchup against Boston. First, the Heat needs to get past a Sixers' squad that also had to overcome a slow start out of the gate.
Philadelphia began the season at 3-13 and it looked like the Sixers would be shut out of the playoffs for the second straight year. However, the Sixers slowly chipped away and finally went above the .500 mark on February 27 at 30-29. Philadelphia never fell below .500 the rest of the way, but couldn't capture the sixth seed by dropping five of six down the stretch to fall into the seventh slot.
James, Wade, and Bosh combined to score 70.9 of the team's 102.1 ppg, or nearly 70% of their total points. Miami dominated on the highway with a 27-13 mark, the second-best road record in the NBA behind Dallas. That number is important moving forward as the Heat can close a series on the highway, while the Sixers finished the season at just 15-26 away from the Wells Fargo Center.
The Heat struggled against the league's elite teams with a 7-12 record against the Bulls, Celtics, Magic, Spurs, Lakers, Mavs, and Thunder. Basically, Miami took care of its business against any team not in the upper-echelon with a 51-12 mark, including a three-game sweep of Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Sixers won just four games against the top eight teams in the league, but covered eight of 14 games versus the top four clubs in the Eastern Conference.
The first time these teams met was in late October at the Wells Fargo Center, one day after the Heat lost the much-anticipated opener at Boston. Miami rebounded nicely with a 97-87 victory as eight-point favorites, highlighted by a 31-13 third-quarter outburst. Wade put up 30 points, while James Jones drilled six treys and contributed 20 points off the bench.
The two clubs hooked up in South Florida one month later, as the Heat took care of the Sixers the day after Thanksgiving with a 99-90 triumph. Philadelphia covered as 11-point underdogs, dropping the Sixers to 3-13 on the season, despite hitting 47% of their shots from the floor. James struggled with his jump shot, nailing just five of 15 tries, as his field-goal numbers through the first two meetings with Philadelphia stood at 10 for 27 (37%).
In the final meeting in late March at American Airlines Arena, the two teams went back and forth throughout the entire contest with each squad owning a double-digit lead. The Heat would stave off the Sixers, 111-99 as Miami outscored Philaelphia by 17 points in the final quarter. James finally solved the Philadelphia defense with 32 points, while Wade put up a game-high 39. The Sixers spread the scoring around as six players finished with double-figures, led by 24 off the bench from Lou Williams.
Gambling Notes: The Heat never found their groove covering numbers at home, as they went 13-17 ATS the final 30 games at the AAA. Gamblers profited with Miami as road favorites, going 17-9 ATS when laying points on the highway since December 2. The Sixers were tied with the Knicks for the third-most ATS wins in the league at 46, even though Philadelphia dropped six straight games ATS down the stretch. Philadelphia covered nine of 13 games as a home underdog, the role it would likely be in for Games 3 and 4 (and a potential Game 6).
Series Outlook: Miami has been waiting for the postseason to start since James, Wade, and Bosh held their rock concert last summer to declare a bright future for this franchise. The Sixers did a fantastic job in digging out of a huge hole in November, but to slow down the Big Three without a legitimate superstar will hurt Philadelphia in this long series. The Heat will move on to the second round in five games against this feisty Sixers squad.
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