I got into a big March Madness pool and have money coming if Nova wins, and want to hedge to ensure money either way. I have a couple options that I'm tossing around and would like some opinions on what y'all would do.
I will get either 7th or 8th if Nova wins based on the total. If between 145-153, I'll take 7th and win roughly $1900. If Nova wins with any other total I take roughly $1400. If Michigan wins I get nothing. So here are two options I've bee kicking around.
Option 1:
Bet $375 on Michigan moneyline.
Michigan wins: Win $1050
Nova wins and I lose total: Win $1025
Nova wins and i hit total : Win $1525
Option 2:
Bet 700 on Michigan +7
Michigan wins: Win $630
Nova wins by more than 7 and I lose total: Win $700
Nova wins by more than 7 and I win total: Win $1200
Nova wins by less than 7 and I lose total: Win $2030
Nova wins by less than 7 and I win total: Win $2530
Option 1 seems like the safer to get between 1000 and 1500, but I think Nova will win. It certainly is no lock though.
Please give me your thoughts and other options if you see something.
Someone would have to pay me a large sum to take Michigan ML after what I have seen with nova
I’d say points only way to go just my .02
I personally prefer option 1 but that is just me. It looks like you have thought of everything though so you can't go wrong either way it just depends on how much risk you want to accept.
One thing I will say about why I think 1 is the better option is that I don't think this is going to be a very high scoring game personally and to hang so much on the total falling your way might be the wrong way to go about it since the margin is so narrow.
Tend to agree w/ option 1 but you could also do a teaser on Michigan and the under. Or let it ride. Nova has been lethal and i don't think michigan is in the same class as Nova.
Thanks for the input fellas. I'm thinking that may go with option 2 but lower the bet since I feel like Nova will win. However I still get something if Michigan pulls it out.
Bet 500on Michigan +7
Michigan wins: Win $455
Nova wins by more than 7 and I lose total: Win $900
Nova wins by more than 7 and I win total: Win $1400
Nova wins by less than 7 and I lose total: Win $1850
Nova wins by less than 7 and I win total: Win $2350
Thoughts?
Lol. Still #1 dude, the window is too small on that total.
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Michigan ML at +271 is a no brainer, for 3 to 4 dollars. But that is this dumb ass speaking.
Went with Michigan moneyline for 357 to lock in a $1000 profit for worst case scenario. About 1600 for best case