Horizon League Tournament Preview
by Marc Lawrence
PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: BUTLER - CLEVELAND STATE – WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY – WRIGHT ST
The way we see it: Like last year, the perception is that all BUTLER has to do is show up and they will assure themselves an invite into this year’s Big Dance. The problem with that logic, though, is they have won this event only ONE TIME (last year). This year’s unit practically mirrors last year’s team, though, as they know how to win games away from home (11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS) and against quality teams 12-2 SU and 9-3-2 ATS vs. .570 or greater opposition). Wins at Davidson and Xavier attest to that. CLEVELAND STATE has blossomed under head coach Gary Waters, winning 20 games back-to-back seasons. And this team thrives on momentum having gone 20-8 ATS as favorites off win under his command. Despite its 1-7 SU and ATS mark in this tourney (lost to Butler in the finals last year), we color them dangerous. WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY proved to be the surprise team in the loop this season proving that 5 returning starters can carry a team from losers to winners in any given year. The Phoenix has been especially tough when playing on 3 or more days of rest the past two seasons, going 18-7-1 ATS. Despite going 3-1 SU and ATS in this event the past two seasons, WRIGHT STATE has earned a reputation of being a bit of a homer. Its 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS mark as a conference tourney dog of 3 or more points is not to our liking.
THE SLEEPER: ILLINOIS-CHICAGO
The Flames ignited down the stretch, wining and covering three games in a row prior to their season finale at Loyola Chicago on Friday, February 27th. They have also met with solid success in conference tourney play this decade, going 12-7 SU and 13-6 ATS, including 8-2 ATS when taking points. SR PG Josh Mayo (17.0 PPG) can carry this team deep into the event.
KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: PLAY ON WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY.
It’s no surprise that we like teams with five returning starters. The continuity and experience they bring to the court is invaluable. Pay special attention to the Phoenix in games they are seeking revenge as this unit is 14-3-1 ATS when avenging a loss the past two seasons.