Hornets-Lakers Outlook
By Brian Edwards
Western Conference First Round
No. 2 L.A. Lakers vs. No. 7 New Orleans
Series Price: L.A. Lakers -2200 New Orleans +1300
Series Format: L.A. Lakers 2-2-1-1-1
Skinny: Los Angeles is gunning for a third straight NBA title and that quest begins with its first-round series against New Orleans. Phil Jackson’s core nucleus from the last two championship squad remains intact, although the team has added a few different pieces to the second unit.
Matt Barnes is a long defender with a nasty streak and plenty of postseason experience. The back-up point guard is now veteran Steve Blake, who gets the minutes that previously went to Jordan Farmer.
Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom are still three of the league elite players, while Andrew Bynum is a beast on the boards when he can stay healthy. L.A. had a few disconcerting losses before the All-Star break, but it recovered to win 17 of its next 18 games.
Derek Fisher has aged quite a bit, but he can still knock down clutch jumpers when needed. As for Ron Artest, you never know what you’re going to get but his physical style of play is perfect for the playoffs.
The Monte Williams Era began in spectacular fashion as New Orleans won its first eight games both straight up and against the spread. The Hornets would improve to 11-1 before coming back to earth.
Chris Paul is one of the Association’s best point guards, but this team’s postseason hopes virtually vanished when David West went down with a season-ending knee injury at Utah in late March. Since then, New Orleans has won five of 10 games.
West was an integral part of the offense, averaging 18.9 points and 7.6 rebounds per game. Carl Landry has moved into the starting lineup with West out and he’s done an admirable job. However, the bench now lacks firepower.
Paul averages 15.8 points, 9.8 assists, 4.1 rebounds and 2.4 steals per game. He should be able to take advantage of Fisher and get into the lane at will. This should open up quality looks for Trevor Ariza and Marco Belinelli, both of whom need to play at an extremely high level for the Hornets to be competitive.
Head-To-Head: L.A. won all four head-to-head meetings in the regular season, covering the number at a 3-1 ATS clip. The ‘over’ also went 3-1.
On Dec. 29, the Lakers captured a 103-88 win at New Orleans as three-point road favorites. Lamar Odom was the catalyst with 24 points off the bench. Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum chipped in with 20 and 18 points, respectively. Chris Paul had 20 points and seven assists in the losing effort.
The next encounter was at Staples Center on Jan. 7, with L.A. winning a 101-97 decision. However, the Hornets took the cash as 7 ½-point road underdogs. Bryant scored a game-high 25 points, while Pau Gasol finished with 21 points, 13 rebounds and seven assists. Odom produced a double-double with 17 points and 13 boards. David West had a team-high 23 points and 12 rebounds in defeat.
L.A. returned to the Big Easy on Feb. 5 and knocked off New Orleans by a 101-95 count as a five-point road ‘chalk.’ Gasol made 13-of-17 shots en route to scoring 34 points and grabbing 10 rebounds. Bryant had 32 points and nine boards. Paul kept the Hornets in the game with 21 points and 15 assists.
The last meeting was on March 27 back in Tinseltown. The Lakers cruised to a 102-84 win as nine-point home favorites. Bryant scored a game-high 30 points and Gasol finished with 23 points, 16 rebounds and four blocked shots. Carl Landry had 24 points and 10 rebounds for the Hornets.
Gambling Notes: As of Saturday night, most books were listing the Lakers as 10-point home favorites for Game 1. The total is 182 ½ at most spots, while bettors can back the Hornets to win outright for a plus-500 return (risk $100 to win $500). ABC will provide television coverage Sunday at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
New Orleans has been a double-digit underdog three times this year, going 1-2 ATS. As a double-digit ‘chalk,’ L.A. has limped to an abysmal 6-11 spread record.
We’ll most likely see the Hornets as home ‘dogs in Games 3 and 4. In such spots during the regular season, they compiled a 6-5 ATS mark.
The ‘over’ is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings between these clubs.
Outlook: As mentioned earlier, the Hornets’ chances are slim to none without West. With that said, we can’t ignore how the Lakers haven’t been a lucrative team to support in the first round the last two seasons. They needed six games to shake Oklahoma City last year, going just 3-3 ATS.
In 2009, the Lakers went 2-3 versus the number in dispatching Utah in five games during the first round. In the West semifinals, they had to go the distance to beat Houston in a seven-game grind.
My point? The Lakers don’t always bring maximum effort in the early going of the postseason. It is vital that they do so this time around because there are a lot of miles on Kobe’s legs, and he could use a quick sweep and some needed rest. That certainly goes for Fisher and Gasol as well and you never know how Bynum’s knees are going to respond.
I’m going to call for the Lakers to deliver broom treatment, but I’m not necessarily suggesting supporting them on the road if they’re laying 4-6 points at New Orleans.
vegasinsider.com.