Hot & Not Report
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Who's Not
Now that we're into mid-January, bettors definitely have their favorites, and teams they like to avoid. There are a handful of teams with records agaisnt the spread (ATS) that are so good, and others are mired in a swoon that will not seem to end. We'll touch on a few of those teams to help you prepare and cash more winners.
Minnesota Golden Gophers (1-8 ATS L/9) – The Gophers have been awful against the number lately, going 1-9 SU/1-8 ATS since their surprise win over Clemson in the Big-10/ACC Challenge back on Nov. 30. In the first few games of the Big 10 season are any indication, the season is about to get much, much longer, especially on the road. Minnesota is 0-3 ATS in three conference road games, losing by an average of 16.3 points. Overall they're 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in the Big Ten. The Gophers face an Indiana Hoosiers (14-3 SU, 9-8 ATS) which has won nine in a row, while covering six of their past nine. Indiana routed Minnesota 90-71 in Bloomington last season, and you can probably expect similar results this time around.
Saint Louis Billikens (1-10 ATS L/11) – The Billikens have been terrible against the spread dating back to last season, and things haven't improved at all this season. Outside of a stunning straight-up win Jan. 6 against George Washington as a 9 1/2-point underdog (ML +425), the Bills have stunk against the number. In fact, going back to last season they are 2-15 ATS over their past 17. This Sunday they face a George Mason team which is in the basement of the Atlantic 10, but which has proven to be a challenge for St. Louis since the Patriots joined the A-10. SLU is 2-2 SU (with the two wins both in overtime during the 2013-14 season) while going 0-4 ATS in the past two seasons. After that, Davidson (10-5 SU, 4-10 ATS) pays a visit Wednesday.
Who's Hot
Indiana State Sycamores (7-0 ATS L/7) – Larry Bird is somewhere smiling, as his alma mater is not only covering spreads, but they're playing good overall basketball, too. The Sycamores are on a four-game win streak, and they have covered seven in a row, as they hurtle towards a date with Missouri Valley Conference champ Wichita State (11-5 SU, 7-7 ATS) Sunday. The good news is that I-State is on a seven-game cover run, but the bad news is that they are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in their past five meetings with the Shockers sicne a 68-55 upset win in Wichita back on Jan. 29, 2013 as a 12-point 'dog. On Wednesday, they will meet a Southern Illinois team which was humbled by 25 againt the Shockers and is currently on a two-game non-cover skid. The Sycamores are very attractive in that one.
Kansas State Wildcats (5-0 ATS L/5) – K-State has been on fire, at least against the number, covering each of their past five contests. They have been a tough out, playing Texas tough before losing 60-57 back on Jan. 5, and they took West Virginia to overtime Jan. 2 before losing a heartbreaker in Manhattan. In fact, they're just 1-3 SU in conference play, but an impressive 4-0 ATS. That unblemished ATS conference mark will be put to the test when Iowa State (12-4 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) comes calling. The Cyclones enter 0-3 ATS in their past three, and they lost straight-up 70-69 in Manhattan last season despite entering as a 3 1/2-point favorite. In fact, the Cyclones are 0-4 ATS in their past four regular season meetings with the Wildcats dating back to Jan. 26, 2013.
Total Notes
North Carolina has watched the 'over' cash in nine straight games. The Tar Heels play North Carolina State this Saturday.
Marquette is on a 6-1 run to the 'over' and hosts Xavier on Saturday.
Bradley has seen the 'under' cash in five of its last six and it's been held to 50 or less points in five of those games. The Braves meet Missouri State on Saturday at home.
Boston College visits Pittsburgh on Saturday and brings a 7-1 'under' run into this game. The Eagles have scored 54, 54 and 40 points in their first three conference games.