Hottest College Hoops Teams Heading Into March Madness
By ADAM THOMPSON
We’re told all the time about the importance of strength of schedule and of the significance of “good wins” versus “bad losses” when it comes to college basketball and securing one of the 34 at-large bids into the NCAA Tournament.
But the selection committee also deems finishing well as a strong component.
Here are five of the hottest teams going into the major-conference tournaments in the coming weeks. These five have not only been on a roll of late, they’ve done very well against the spread.
One more connection between these five teams: they’re all led by upperclassmen, a trait that can often prove most fruitful in March Madness.
Duke Blue Devils (25-4 overall, 17-9-1 ATS)
No major-conference team is hotter than the Blue Devils, who are winners of eight straight going into Wednesday’s marquee game at Maryland.
And the same goes for ATS success. They’re 4-2-2 ATS in those eight games and the team’s 17-9-2 season ATS mark is the best in the ACC.
Two reasons for those numbers:
Under coach Mike Krzyzewski, Duke has historically finished the regular season strong for a NCAA run. This year appears to be the same. Also, the team’s top three players - John Scheyer (18.8 ppg, 5.3 apg), Kyle Singler (17.1 pg, 7.0 rpg) and Nolan Smith (17.4 ppg) - are experienced upperclassmen.
Maryland Terrapins (21-7 overall, 15-9 ATS)
If any major-conference team in the AP Top 25 can be considered a “where did they come from?” selection, it could be Maryland.
The Terrapins beat nobody of consequence in non-conference play, losing by single digits to the likes of Wisconsin, Villanova and Cincinnati. They really didn’t look like a contender after falling at home to William & Mary on December 30.
But when ACC play got going, so did Maryland. It now sits in second place at 11-3 with Wednesday’s home game against Duke (12-2) for a share of first place.
The slow start may also explain Maryland’s success ATS, where the Terps are 15-9 – a stellar 7-2 in road games – including 7-3 in their last 10 games.
And they have a go-to star who can light up the scoreboard. Senior Greivis Vasquez (19.9 ppg, 6.4 apg) put the Terps on his back with 41 points in a 104-100 double-overtime win at Virginia Tech Saturday.
Texas A&M Aggies (20-8 overall, 16-8 ATS)
When it comes to exceeding bettors’ recent expectations, the Aggies stand alone.
Texas A&M is a perfect 8-0 in its last eight games ATS. The Aggies lost only two games in February, by five points to top-ranked Kansas and by four at No. 24 Baylor, covering in both contests.
The Aggies, currently ranked No. 23, have been equally adept ATS at home (7-4) and away (6-3), and the aforementioned loss to the Jayhawks is the only home defeat of the season. They shellacked Texas 74-58 as 1-point favorites Saturday.
Senior guard Donald Sloan has been steady, averaging 18.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg and 2.1 apg.
Kansas State Wildcats (24-4 overall, 16-6-1 ATS)
The fifth-ranked Wildcats are surging going into the madness, winners of seven straight. They’re two points away against Kansas (81-79 L in OT) and four points against Oklahoma State (83-79) from being on a 13-game streak.
The Wildcats are a solid 16-6-1 ATS overall and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games because they don’t let off the gas when up big. In their last three games, against Missouri (-6.5), at Texas Tech (-5.5) and at Oklahoma (-5.5), Kansas State won by 10, 19 and 15 points, respectively.
They also take homecourt advantage seriously. They’re 15-2 (9-2 ATS) in Manhattan.
Jacob Pullen (18.5 ppg) and Denis Clemente (15.8 ppg) provide one of the more explosive backcourts in the nation. Both are upperclassmen.
Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-8 overall, 13-10-1 ATS)
While Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Florida battle in the star-studded SEC East, Mississippi State’s solid season in the SEC West has gone virtually unnoticed outside of the Deep South.
The Bulldogs lead rival Mississippi State by two games in the SEC West, though with a RPI of 56 may still need a late-season run to get an at-large NCAA berth.
They’ve won five of their last six games and are 5-3-1 ATS in their last nine contests.
Based on matchups, Mississippi State could give some teams real problems, especially ones with inexperienced lineups. The Bulldogs have one of the more physical defenses and get scoring from many sources.
Their defensive field goal percentage (37.6) ranks No. 3 nationally.
And four players average between 13.8 and 11.5 points per game, with Ravern Johnson (13.8) and Jarvis Varnado (13.5, 10.9 rpg) leading the way.
Guess what? They’re both upperclassmen.