How to bet the NBA Playoffs
By Teddy Covers
Be aware of the zig-zag theory
The zig-zag theory is very simple and it's a must-understand component of NBA playoff handicapping. The theory is simple enough: Bet on the team that lost their last game.
The thought process behind the theory is that the team that just lost is likely to dig deep and produce a strong effort, before they fall into a deeper hole. Meanwhile, the team that just won is likely to make fewer adjustments and be a tad bit complacent heading into the next game.
The betting marketplace respects this theory tremendously. That's why you'll normally see a shorter pointspread in the first game following a blowout. In addition, you'll often see the weaker of the two teams favored if they return home facing a 0-2 series deficit after losing the first two games on their opponent's home court.
Sharp bettors know that the zig-zag theory is going to influence pointspreads throughout the postseason. They'll understand why and how the books are making adjustments to the spread from game to game as a series progresses.
Be aware of flaws in the zig-zag theory
The zig-zag theory does very well in competitive series. For a prime example, look at the NBA Finals between the Lakers and Celtics last year, when the straight-up loser of the previous game covered the spread five times in six tries - the lone exception being Boston’s win in Game 5.
But the zig-zag theory tends to fail in less competitive series, where one team has a clear advantage over their opponent. The Atlanta Hawks were a good example of this failure last playoff season. The Hawks went 4-3 ATS in Round 1, covering the spread in all four wins over Milwaukee.
But once Atlanta stepped up in class against Orlando in Round 2, it was downright ugly. The Hawks went 0-4 SU and ATS, with all four defeats coming by double digits against the spread. When there is a confidence differential and/or a talent differential, the zig-zag theory tends to crash and burn.
The theory also fails when a team is simply priced incorrectly by the betting marketplace. Bettors got hammered trying to zig-zag against the Boston Celtics last spring, as Doc Rivers’ squad went 11-3 ATS in their first 14 playoff games en route to series wins over Miami, Cleveland and Orlando.
At the time, bettors just didn't respect the Celtics following their mediocre 27-27 SU run to close out the regular season. Boston finished the regular season ranked 29th out of 30 NBA teams against the spread, ahead of only lowly New Jersey.
When the Celtics flipped the switch in the postseason, their residual ATS value carried them to profits in all four rounds of the playoffs.
Blindly betting the zig-zag theory is a 50/50 proposition at best. The key for bettors is to determine which are the competitive series where the zig-zag will work and which matchups are the mismatch series, where the zig-zag is likely to fail.
Don't overvalue home courts
Every talking head on TV talks about the importance of the home court in the postseason. You'll repeatedly hear nonsense like, "Look for Team A to protect their home court in Game 5." But the home-court edge is already fully factored in to every pointspread in every game.
Playoff teams are here because they can win on the road. The very best teams, that are most likely to win a playoff series or two, tend to have winning records on the road, consistently beating teams in hostile environments.
As we enter the 2011 playoffs, Boston, Chicago, Orlando, Atlanta, Oklahoma City, Los Angeles, San Antonio and Dallas - eight of the 16 playoff teams - finished the regular season above .500 on the highway.
And it’s surely worth noting that sub .500 road playoff teams like New York, Philadelphia, Memphis, Portland and Denver have been pointspread moneymakers on the highway, despite their relative lack of SU success.
The teams that you're most likely to make money with during the postseason are the type of teams that tend to win games and cover spreads in hostile environments. And a home-court edge lessens later in a series when teams have played several previous games on each floor, as matchups and health become bigger issues than the where the game is taking place.