The temptation to get ahead is pulling at my purse strings. It is telling me that the game between the Lakers and the Timberwolves is an almost lock on the moneyline. If I took most of my sports book account and put it on the Lakers money line on friday I could get bank up some more investment profits in my sports book account and pull nicely ahead to where I want to be right now.
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If some sense needs to be knocked into me concerning this thinking please do. I welcome it since I wish I had someone "trading" my sports book account for me and following the system I should be following.
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I welcome constructive feedback, 8)
P.S. Tell me what could go wrong that would cause the Lakers to lose? Have you also experienced times in the past where you felt the same way about a lock and ended up losing your money on a similar play as the Laker's game on Friday? Tell me about it. 🙁
There is no such thing as a lock and anything could happen to cause this to be a losing wager. Just because the spread is 16 doesn't mean anything.
To lay 2700 or 3000 to win 100 is pretty much the worst thing you could ever do for any reason.
There is no reason to risk this much for such a small return unless you know the outcome of the contest in advance.
Just consider for a moment how many bets you would need to win to get back to 3000 if you were to lose this wager. Hardly seems worth it when you think about how hard it is to string winners together in the first place.
To lay 2700 or 3000 to win 100 is pretty much the worst thing you could ever do for any reason.
I agree 100% these plays usually come in but just say the Lakers lay a egg and lose it will take 27 straight winners to get that 2,700 back at 100 a game.
Thank you Cash and Blade for your answers. When I made this question I did not know the money line was going to be 3,000. Even though there is a 95% chance that the Lakers will win on the money line it is safer not to make this situational play since I would be risking too much to win too little. I hope this thread helps other people who may have the same temptation today or in the future.
Thanks, 8)
Actually 91.6% as Lakers are, in the last decade, 22-2 SU as +15 fav at home with rest. They are 15-0 SU last 15 games with latest winner coming last year when they beat Clippers 88-85 as a 17pt fav.
Actually 91.6% as Lakers are, in the last decade, 22-2 SU as +15 fav at home with rest.
2 games lost out of 22 means I have approx. an 8% or 9% chance of losing. As you can see, it is not worth it to take this chance to lose everything in my book. Thank you for posting these figures.
8)
are you people seriously considering any of this play? Reminds me of the bridge-jumpers that put 50,000 on a mortal lock horse to show. Trying to make a nickel on a dollar hmmmm... No, they dont always show thus that is why the bettor is known as a "bridge-jumper". They are usually found floating upside down in the bay and their families are left holding....NOTHING 🙁
Actually, if it is such a lock, wait til 1/2 time and maybe the Lakers will be down a few pts. Bet the 2nd 1/2 line it could be appealing
are you people seriously considering any of this play?
No, just me and since the Lakers were playing the worse team in basketball on their home court it looked like a lock to me. The lakers ended up winning tonight but the following under the total play got me more money with far less risk. Take a look at this play that won on Friday night:
http://www.thespread.com/forum/index.php?topic=68207.0