In the NBA, 100 points means a lot
By Doug Upstone
Breaking the century mark in professional basketball offers insights into many different areas of the game for teams, fans and sports bettors. For those in attendance at an NBA game, the home team breaking 100 may mean a free drink or free food depending on the clubs list of sponsors. For any team, scoring 100 points might lead to a near certain victory, however scoring that many points and giving up equal value on the triple digits side could comprise a win. The NBA sports bettor would have a real edge if he can determine what teams will allow or reach the 100-point threshold, which could build a significant bankroll.
Went thru the complete list of NBA teams and found the teams with the five best records when scoring 100 or more points. (Records are straight up wins)
L.A. Lakers 26-1
Cleveland 24-1
Boston 18-2
Oklahoma City 16-2
Orlando 18-3
The most common characteristic among these teams had nothing to do with scoring, it was points allowed. All five teams are among the Top 8 in fewest points given up. Its easy to surmise if teams break the century mark in points scored, they are a good bet to not only win, but to cover the spread. Here is their SU and spread records when they do so.
L.A. Lakers 26-1, 16-11 ATS
Cleveland 24-1, 18-7 ATS
Boston 18-2, 12-8 ATS
Oklahoma City 16-2, 15-3 ATS
Orlando 18-3, 13-7-1 ATS
It is not a surprising the Lakers and Celtics have the poorest records in studying these numbers since both are very public teams these days and attract a lot of money, inflating the value of points they are to win by. However, each of the other three teams has a healthy spread record and be counted on to deliver very positive results when ringing up 100 points. A great question would be how can one know when any of these teams will score that many points? More on that later.
Here is something uncovered about these teams that is also extremely revealing, what happens when they surrender triple digits? What we find is these become very ordinary teams that are beatable and just horrific wagers that give away cash almost as fast as Congress.
L.A. Lakers 9-8, 3-14 ATS
Cleveland 8-4, 3-9 ATS
Boston 8-5, 4-9 ATS
Oklahoma City 4-14, 6-12 ATS
Orlando 7-10, 4-12-1 ATS
The most important aspect to remember about these five teams, they are defensive-oriented, while clearly having the ability to score points. They are not like Charlotte or Detroit, who show up in fewest points conceded list, in part because they play a half-court brand of basketball, not conducive to scoring or allowing 100 points. These clubs are primarily favorites and when they allow that many points, it restricts the number of games they can cover the spread, making them extremely poor wager.
This helps lead into area that can be profited from by doing homework on game day. Went back and looked at the spread records of our five teams when they score 100 or more points and permitted less than 100. This is an extremely noteworthy area of profit.
L.A. Lakers 12-4 ATS
Cleveland 15-1 ATS
Boston 8-2 ATS
Oklahoma City 11-0 ATS
Orlando 8-3 ATS
Add these five NBA squads together in this situation and you are looking at a sterling 55-10, 84.6 percent ATS record, highlighted by the Thunders perfect mark. While there is no precise method to determine when this actual event will occur, oddsmakers can certainly lend a hand from a predictive nature. For example, say Oklahoma City is playing Sacramento and is a nine-point favorite with total of 197. In this situation, those setting the odds are telling us the Thunder should win the game 103-94 over the Kings, fitting the exact needed criteria to cover the spread and extract a winner.
In no way is there a hint that anyone will hit above 80 percent in following these teams given set of circumstances that unfolds after a game has been played, rather find ways following this simple premise to put the odds in your favor.
The same would hold true for these five clubs if they are matched against opponent where they might be a smaller road favorite with a total of say 209. If the Lakers were favored by five at Indiana with such a total, the score would show L.A. winning 107-102, if the contest plays out correctly and Kobe Bryants team has covered less than one out of four of such a setup.
One hundred points could lead to hundreds of profit dollars.
Very nice!
Who the heck is Doug Upstone?
Thanks
WVC