In the Paint - Week 9
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Grin and Bear It
Baylor slid up to No. 2 in the Top 25 rankings, and the Bears are not just winning, but covering, too. Baylor moved to 13-0 SU with a 76-50 win at Oklahoma Dec. 30 in their last outing, easily covering a 6 1/2-point number. They have covered six in a row, and opponents haven't come within 15 points of the Bears in the past seven games dating back to Nov. 25, a three-point win against Louisville on a neutral-site court. Only three of Baylor's 13 opponents so far have been able to lose by just single digits. They have wins by 26 points against Oklahoma, 15 points against Michigan State and 17 points against Oregon.
Bullish on the Bulldogs
Gonzaga currently sits at No. 5 in the Top 25 rankings, and they're unlikely to be moving down anytime soon. The Bulldogs have passed early-season tests at Tennessee, home against San Diego State and Washington, and neutral-site wins over Arizona, Florida and Iowa State. Really, the most challenging part of their schedule is over, as conference play has begun. While the West Coast Conference is not quite a pushover, only Brigham Young and Saint Mary's (CA) realistically are expected to give the Bulldogs any trouble. Gonzaga rolls into their next game at San Francisco on a 7-0 ATS run, and they have covered four in a row either on the road are on a neutral court.
Mounting Concerns
West Virginia entered play Tuesday in Lubbock ranked No. 7 in the nation. But Vegas had a sneaking suspicion about the Mountaineers, as they were favored by just a bucket. West Virginia headed home with a 77-76 loss in overtime at unranked Texas Tech, as the Mountaineers suffered their first loss since a neutral-site setback against Temple back on Nov. 25. West Virginia passed their first league road test at Oklahoma State Dec. 30 in a 92-75 win, but the Red Raiders proved there won't be many free lunches in the league this season.
Not Just a Football School
Florida State is garnering attention for its work on the hardwood, shooting up to No. 12 in the nation this week. The Seminoles have a week-long rest after their New Year's Eve victory at Virginia, 60-58. The Seminoles have opened up conference play with a pair of wins and covers, and they're now 6-2 ATS over the past eight. Like West Virginia, FSU's last loss came on a neutral-site court against Temple back on Nov. 24. And if you like playing totals, the 'under' is a perfect 4-0 in FSU's past four, and 7-3 in their past 10 overall. The Seminoles rank 23rd in the country in defensive field goal percentage, as opponents are shooting just 38.5 percent from the floor.
Indiana Slide
The Indiana Hoosiers are in danger of sliding right out of the Top 25 after a 75-68 setback against No. 11 Wisconsin Tuesday night. The Hoosiers have dropped three in a row, and four of their past six games overall. They're also just 2-4 ATS during the span, and a major reason for their struggles has been on the defensive end. Indiana has allowed 75 or more points in each of those four losses. Head coach Tom Crean's group will look to regroup Saturday against Illinois, a team which is 4-1 ATS in their past five outings while scoring 75 or more points in five of the past six.
Other Teams to Watch
Arkansas State travels to Myrtle Beach on Saturday for an interesting non-conference tilt with Coastal Carolina in the first-ever meetings between the schools on the hardwood. Ark State has covered three in a row, and they're 7-2 ATS in the past nine games overall. The Chanticleers of CCU limp in with just one cover over the past five outings, and they're 0-3 ATS at home this year.
DePaul has dropped four straight, and they're 1-4 ATS over the past five games and 1-8 ATS over the past nine overall. Remember that for Saturday's trip to Seton Hall, although the Pirates are just 3-7-1 ATS in their past 11 overall.
Fresno State heads into its game Wednesday night against Wyoming on quite the roll. Yes, they have won two of their past three straight up, but the Bulldogs have covered eight in a row since their lone non-cover in their Nov. 11 opener against Texas-San Antonio.
Sacramento State continues to struggle, losing three in a row overall. They're also a dismal 1-9 ATS in their past 10 games overall. Total bettors will want to remember the Hornets, too, as the 'under' is 6-1 in their past seven.
South Dakota hits the road for Denver Wednesday night looking to stay hot against the number. The Coyotes are 7-1-1 ATS over their past nine games, and 3-1-1 ATS in their past five on the road. However, the Pioneers are 6-0-1 ATS in their past seven league games, and 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings with the underdog going 5-2 ATS in the past seven outings.
We've been picking on UCSB this season, but they have certainly shown some improvement lately. While they lost last time out against Seattle Dec. 30, they did pick up an impressive win over Cal-State Bakersfield in overtime Dec. 27, and covered on a neutral court against Nevada. In fact, the over was their first of the season in eight tries. They're still a poor team against the spread, and they're seven-point 'dogs at UC Davis Wednesday. The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their past six against teams with a losing overall record, and the favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven in the series.
Like UCSB, fellow Big West foe UC Riverside Highlanders has struggled against the number this season, too. Riverside has dropped seven of their past eight straight up, and they're 0-5 ATS over the past five and 1-7 ATS over the past eight overall. The 'under' is a perfect 5-0 in their past five, and 7-1 in the past eight overall.