January's Rise and Fall
By Joe Nelson
As the calendar turns to 2011 the NBA schedule heats up and the playoff picture will start to clear up approaching the halfway point of the season. A few teams have overachieved at this point in the season and a few teams could have a strong run in store over the next few weeks. Here are a few play-on and play-against teams for the upcoming January schedule, teams we expect to rise or fall in the next month.
PLAY ON: Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves are just 8-24 S/U on the season but they have battled through one of the toughest early season schedules in the league. Minnesota has proven scorers with Kevin Love and Michael Beasley and with Martell Webster and Jonny Flynn now healthy this is a more complete team. Rookie Wesley Johnson has also exceeded expectations as a legitimate scoring threat. Minnesota has had to play 19 games on the road with just 13 games at home so far and they are 6-7 S/U at the Target Center. The January schedule is promising with nine home games and only five road games and while there are several high quality teams on the schedule there is good spacing with only one instance of playing on back-to-back nights in the entire month.
Over the last 14 games (through Dec. 28), the Wolves have only been outscored by an average of three points per game (compared with a season average of 6.6 points per game) so this is a team that has shown real improvement. Minnesota has just four wins in those 14 games but nine of those games were on the road. Minnesota has also gone 9-5 ATS in that stretch of 14 games. While this is not a team that will be making a playoff push, there will be value on Minnesota as an underdog in many match-ups this month and this is a team that is gaining confidence and should beat most other bad teams at home while giving superior squads a good effort in many situations.
PLAY ON: Phoenix Suns
The Suns are in second place in the ugly Pacific Division despite a 13-16 record and while it has been a disappointing start to the season there is plenty of time for Phoenix to climb back into the playoff picture. At present the Suns only sit two games out of the playoffs and that is having played the toughest schedule in the league to date according to most ratings. The Suns have played 16 of 29 games on the road this season and 12 of those 16 games were against teams that currently are at least .500. The Suns are a terrible defensive team but Phoenix is still one of the top offensive teams in the league and Mickael Pietrus should be a good fit to improve the overall caliber of the team while Vince Carter will eventually add even more offensive potential to the squad once he is healthy. Phoenix will close 2010 on a terrible run with losses in at least seven of the last nine games but the December schedule was very difficult and getting the new pieces on the roster into form will take some time.
The January schedule is very promising so this is a team that can make a move in the next few weeks. Only seven road games are in January for the Suns and only two games will be against teams with winning records. The home schedule is also reasonable with only four games against winning teams and several of those teams will face long travel to get to Phoenix. The Suns have been a poor ATS team on the season especially at home but value could come back to Phoenix given the poor record at this point in the season.
PLAY AGAINST: Atlanta Hawks
At 20-13, the Hawks currently sit right about where they have been stuck for the last few seasons. Moving up looks very difficult for Atlanta and a fall might actually be possible as this team may be overrated at this point in the season. Atlanta has played one of the easier schedules in the league at this point and despite being seven games over .500 Atlanta is outscoring opponents by just 1.9 points per game. The Hawks are just 9-8 on the road and only two of those road wins came against teams that currently have winning records. In January eight of 14 games will be on the road including trips to Utah, Miami, Milwaukee, and Dallas and the home schedule will be challenging as well.
The Hawks have struggled ATS this season going just 5-11 in home games and given the strong overall record the Hawks will continue to be valued like a high quality team in home games. Atlanta is a solid defensive team statistically but that could change against tougher competition and the high shooting percentage on offense at nearly 47 percent is likely to fall off in the coming months. This is a below average rebounding team and most other indicators rate the Hawks as a near dead center average team, even though their record is currently well above average.
PLAY AGAINST: New York Knicks
Many scoffed at New York’s move to bring in Amar’e Stoudemire but so far so good for the Knicks, relevant again in the Eastern Conference with a solid 18-12 record. The Knicks are the top scoring team in the NBA and the team will enter 2011 coming off a very successful month of December featuring an 8-3 record so far with wins over Chicago, Oklahoma City, Denver, and New Orleans. Outside of those four wins the Knicks beat just one team with a winning record in November and October so there is reason to be skeptical of the long term prospects for this team. New York has played one of the easier schedules in the league and the 10-5 road record has been built with very few quality wins. The Knicks are also among the top ATS teams in the league so value should be going against New York moving forward.
The January schedule is also going to be brutal and it would not be surprising to see this team fall to near .500 by the end of the month. Eight of 15 games are on the road and all eight games are against teams with at least a .500 record. Home games also include big match-ups with San Antonio, Phoenix, and Miami which will take a toll. The Knicks will play seven of the eight road games outside of the Eastern Time zone including four games out west. The Knicks may still end up as a playoff team as 12-17 currently makes the postseason in the Eastern Conference but contending for an upper half seed is out of the question and a big part of the fall should come in the next month.