Jazz-Lakers Outlook
By Kevin Rogers
No. 1 L.A. Lakers vs. No. 5 Utah Jazz
Series Price: L.A. Lakers -400, Utah +325
Series Format: L.A. Lakers, 2-2-1-1-1
Skinny: The Lakers survived a first-round scare by ousting the upstart Thunder in six games, thanks to Pau Gasol's tip-in to clinch the series victory on Friday. That same night, the Jazz eliminated their division rival, Denver in six games, winning all three games at Energy Solutions Arena. Now, the Lakers look to oust the Jazz for the third consecutive time in the postseason.
Kobe Bryant hit several big shots in the Game 6 win at Oklahoma City, putting together a 32-point effort in a 95-94 triumph. Bryant averaged 23.5 ppg in the Thunder series, a 3 ½-point drop-off from his 27.0 ppg average in the regular season. The Lakers were provided much help in the middle from Gasol (18.0 ppg, 12 rpg) and Andrew Bynum (12.0 ppg, 9.0 rpg), as Utah won't provide much of a threat in the middle with Mehmet Okur out due to a torn Achilles' tendon.
The Jazz were able to overcome the injuries to Okur and Andrei Kirilenko in the series victory over the Nuggets thanks to help from unlikely sources in Paul Millsap (17.3 ppg), Wesley Matthews (13.8 ppg), and C.J. Miles (13.7 ppg). The key cogs to the Utah offense paced the Jazz against the sloppy Nuggets with Deron Williams (25.8 ppg) and Carlos Boozer (22.5 ppg, 13.3 rpg) doing their part, as Jerry Sloan's club averaged 110.3 ppg in the series.
The Lakers took three of four in the season series with the Jazz, including both games at Staples Center. Phil Jackson's team outscored Utah 28-6 in the final quarter of a 101-77 blowout on December 9, as the Jazz shot a dreadful 33.7% from the floor. Utah avenged that embarrassing performance with a 102-94 home victory three days later by shooting 52% from the field.
Prior to the All-Star Break, Bryant rested a sprained ankle, but that didn't stop the Lakers from pounding the Jazz in Salt Lake, 96-81 as 5 ½-point underdogs on February 10. Lamar Odom was the key to the final two victories in the series, starting with a 25-point, 11-rebound effort at Utah. Odom helped lead the Lakers to a fast 33-16 first-quarter advantage en route to a 106-92 win on April 2 by scoring a game-high 26 points.
All four meetings finished 'under' the total, extending the 'under' streak to seven straight in this series, dating back to Game 3 of last year's playoff series. The Jazz has busted the 100-point mark only once in the previous seven meetings, which should be interesting since Utah has scored at least 100 points in eight of its last nine overall.
Gambling Notes: Ownership is not a stretch when describing the Lakers relationship with the Jazz when Utah invades the Staples Center. Los Angeles has won 14 straight against Utah at home, while going 10-3-1 ATS in this span. The Jazz has had moderate success when the teams meet in the Beehive State, as Utah has won five of the last eight matchups at Energy Solutions Arena (4-3-1 ATS).
The Lakers are 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS as a home favorite of 6 ½ to 9 points this season, while going 7-1 SU and 4-4 ATS at home off a road victory. If Los Angeles wins Game 1, a good total stat to keep an eye on for Game 2 is to lean towards the 'under.' The Lakers are 15-8 to the 'under' as a home favorite off a home victory, including 'unders' in five of the last six in this spot.
Utah is a weak 2-4-1 ATS and 1-6 SU as a road underdog off a home victory, while finishing 'under' the total five of seven times. The Jazz is just 1-6 SU/ATS the last seven as a road 'dog off a win, a stat to look out for in Games 1, 2, 5, and 7.
Series Outlook: The Lakers obviously have Utah's number at home, and if the Champs can find a way to scratch out at least one win in Salt Lake, this shouldn't be a long series. Utah's supporting cast stepped up in the Denver series, but we'll see if Millsap, Miles, and Matthews can keep it up against a more defensive-oriented team in the Lakers. I'll take the Purple and Gold to finish off the Jazz in five games.
vegasinsider.com