Lakers-Thunder Outlook
By Kevin Rogers
No. 1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 8 Oklahoma City Thunder
Series Price: L.A. Lakers -700, Oklahoma City +560
Series Format: L.A. Lakers, 2-2-1-1-1
Skinny: The Lakers have had the top seed in the Western Conference locked up for awhile now, but the Champs found out on Monday that they would take on the upstart Thunder in the first round. Oklahoma City slipped to the eighth spot down the stretch, despite an impressive season in which the Thunder won 50 games.
Kobe Bryant sat out the final two regular season games to give himself a rest from the rough 82-game stretch. The Lakers' star will be set for the playoffs, as the team is hoping to get center Andrew Bynum back in the lineup after missing 13 games with an Achilles injury. Los Angeles stormed out of the gate with a 28-6 mark through the first two months of the season, as Phil Jackson's squad finished 29-18 since January 6.
The Thunder is led by scoring champ Kevin Durant, who has paced this young Oklahoma City squad to its best record since the 2004-05 season in Seattle. For the first time since that 52-win campaign, the Thunder has held its opponents to below 100 ppg (97.9). OKC had opportunities to finish higher than the eighth seed, but Scott Brooks' team dropped four of five down the stretch, including losses to the Jazz, Nuggets, and Blazers.
The Lakers captured three of four regular season meetings, but the Thunder managed to cover three times as underdogs. Los Angeles edged OKC by three points twice, including an overtime triumph at the Ford Center in early November. The Thunder blew a 12-point lead at Staples Center on December 22 in a 111-108 setback, but cashed tickets as ten-point underdogs. OKC finally broke through against L.A. with a 91-75 pasting of the Lakers at home in late March, limiting the Lakers to 34 first-half points.
Gambling Notes: The Lakers won't likely be laying double-digits in this series, so we'll focus on a more limited sample. Los Angeles finished 6-9-2 ATS when laying single-digits at Staples Center, while 12 of 17 games went 'under' the total. The road wasn't friendly for Lakers' backers as Los Angeles compiled a 6-11-1 ATS mark as 'chalk' of less than six points on the highway.
Oklahoma City was a fantastic play as a road underdog this season, going 18-8 ATS when receiving points away from the Ford Center. If the Thunder falls in the series opener, keep an eye on OKC in Game 2 as the Thunder went 9-3 ATS as a road 'dog off a loss (8-4 to the 'over'). Despite knocking off the Lakers in March, OKC was just 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS as a home underdog, while breaking 100 points only once.
Series Outlook: The Thunder will be a tough out, especially with Durant able to score at will. Once Bryant and Bynum are back in the lineup, the Lakers will revert back to the team that started the season on fire. Oklahoma City can steal a game at Staples Center since the Thunder isn't scared of the highway. The Lakers will advance on, but it will take the Champs six games to move onto the second round and eliminate the feisty Thunder.
vegasinsider.com