Las Vegas Betting Notes
By Micah Roberts
Beginning this Friday, the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas has the honor of hosting the WCC conference tournament which runs through Monday to the Championship game. The WCC has one of the greatest formats for their tournament in that they don’t hurt their best teams' chances of making the NCAA’s by exposing them to losing throughout the bracket like others conferences do. The WCC’s top teams of Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga are seeded No. 1 and No. 2 and will have byes through the first two rounds.
It’s a smart move by the WCC because they know they are likely only to have the automatic bid with no at-large bid coming on a yearly basis. So why not enhance the best teams' chances of making the big dance and give good representation in the NCAA's rather than a team that has one great game in an upset, but is still nevertheless weaker over the long haul?
For Saint Mary’s, they’re happy about being WCC co-champions for the first time since 1997, but they can’t be happy with the way they closed out the season. After losing to Gonzaga on Thursday, their third loss in a row, they needed to beat Portland just to ensure a piece of the title. This was a team that dominated all season long and had gained respect throughout the nation with their play that included wins over St. Johns, Mississippi State, Gonzaga and a one-point loss to BYU.
The Gaels' demise began when they lost at San Diego on February 16 as 18-point favorites. Then they then lost a tough home match to WAC power Utah State as a 5-point favorite which carried over into last weeks home loss to the Zags. By losing those three games, Saint Mary’s RPI rating has plummeted to No. 55.
Gonzaga, meanwhile, is a team that is hot and they’re moving up the RPI ranks sitting at No. 63 riding their six game winning streak into the tournament. For bettors, they have also cashed tickets in five of those six games during the streak.
Look for the Zags to keep the streak going and win the tournament title game Monday night. The Las Vegas Hilton posted odds on the Tournament with both Gonzaga and Saint Mary‘s at minus-110 with the remaining schools listed at 5-to-2 as part of the “Field”.
Texas Two-Step Backwards
Remember just about a month ago when we all couldn’t believe the streak Texas was on. Who cares about the win 11 game streak, right? It was about the string of covers against the spread that peaked all of our interest. While most of us jumped on the bandwagon half-way through the streak that saw them cover 10 of 11 games, at the same time, we all thought there was no way this could go on. Either the rating for Texas would be over inflated making it tough for them to cover the high spreads or the Long Horns would hit the brick wall themselves.
Both happened, and for the last month Texas has gone 3-5 ATS. More importantly for them as a unit heading into the season that matters, they are looking closer to the team from early December that got blown out by USC. They have lost three of their last four games, two on the road to Nebraska and Colorado -- not exactly Big-12 powers, and then last night at home to Kansas State as a 9-point favorite.
The K-State state loss isn’t as alarming as the other two because the Wild Cats are on a five game win streak right now beating the best three teams in the Big-12, but Texas isn’t where they want to be right now by any means. They peaked too early and it will be interesting to see if they can get it back.
UNLV & MWC Hopes
Las Vegas has breathed a sigh of relief as it appears UNLV's four game win streak will get them an at-large bid to the NCAA’s. Two weeks ago, there was a uneasiness among supporters feeling that any loss would be devastating to their chances even though they still had a high RPI ranking. They currently are No. 26 on the RPI charts after winning big road games at New Mexico and Colorado State.
Depending on how you look at it, you could either say the Mountain West conference is weak with a bunch of top heavy teams who beat up on the little guys or you could say that the top three teams of San Diego State, BYU and UNLV are ready to show the nation just how good they are once playing other schools outside the conference.
For UNLV, they haven't been their best against the big two of the conference losing home and away to BYU and San Diego State. But to their credit, they never stopped hustling and doing the little things during their shooting woes. They have taken care of business on all the lesser teams by beating them all. As an Alumnus, I can say I was only disappointed with their play in three games this season which were home losses to UCSB and Colorado State and a home win against Air Force.
I do believe that BYU’s shooting -- not just Jimmer Ferdette -- will carry them through the sweet 16 and I think the Aztecs inside game and team defense will give most teams fits carrying them far. The only problem I have with San Diego State is that their outside shooting is suspect at times. They remind me more of a Big-10 type of team than a stereotypical west coast team.
For nothing more than conference pride, there was a hope that Colorado State would make the NCAA’s with an at-large bid based their No. 47 RPI, but their loss to Air Force may have killed that notion. Their only glimmer of hope now is to close out the season strong and capture an upset or two in the MWC tournament held in Las Vegas next week.
The MWC is still ranked No. 4 in RPI conference rating and is also No. 4 in strength of schedule, which are both higher than the ACC, SEC, Pac-10 and A-10. It’s possible that they all might be exposed proving the east coast bias correct, but having witnessed quite a few of the games up late on the west coast, I think the MWC representatives will do quite well against the rest of the nation through the bracket. They collectively do a lot of things better, particularly defend, than I have seen from some of the top teams in the nation.