Learning Lessons From Mid-Majors Past
By Nick Parsons
Covers.com
Nick Parsons shuns the big boys and digs deep into the mid-major conference for college basketball betting value.
Making decent coin from fading Butler and Montana State overs?
If you are don’t expect the same to happen in the New Year.
The transition in the schedule from non-conference games into conference games is a critical time for handicappers. What was seen as prime value in November and December can hurt the bankroll if not approached with caution in January.
While these trends are obvious to most handicappers, here is a quick look at three common occurrences during this transition period with examples from previous seasons.
Princeton 1997-98: Value dog to heavy favorite
With all due respect to this year’s Harvard team, it will be difficult for them to surpass what Bill Carmody’s Princeton Tigers did 15 years ago. Leading up to Ivy League play, the Tigers went 11-1 and covered the spread seven out of eight times.
These weren’t easy wins either. Their victories came against the likes of Texas, North Carolina State, and Wake Forest. And that single defeat was a 50-42 road loss to a North Carolina team that included Vince Carter and Antawn Jamison. Princeton was a 15.5-point underdog in that contest
What happened during conference play was obvious. In their 14 Ivy League games, the Tigers were double-digit favorites in all but one contest. In fact, the average spread that the Tigers had to cover was 19.5 points.
This year’s candidates: Murray State, Harvard, Middle Tennessee State
Centenary 2010-11: Awful team, solid value
With a 1-29 record last season, the Gentlemen of Centenary, who now play in Division III, were one of the worst Div. I teams in recent memory. In November and December of 2010, they lost all 15 of their games by an average of 22.8 points.
That performance played a key role in making them one of the better cover teams in the month of January. The Gentlemen went 6-2 against the spread with the benefit of numbers in the high 20s.
This year’s candidates: Northern Illinois, Towson, Canisius
West Carolina 2003-04: NBA talent overvalued
Unless you were a scout, very little was known about Kevin Martin at the start of the 2003-04 season. That all changed with a late December road trip to Arkansas, where the future first-round pick put up 33 points in a 62-59 overtime win.
What that did was overvalue a team whose offense centered upon one individual. Even for a conference as weak as the SOCON, this was relatively easily to game plan around. Its first conference game in January had Western Carolina posted as just a 2-point underdog against a Charleston team that was 9-2 at the time. Martin went 2 for 11 and the Catamounts lost 84-61.
Other than short spreads, another key element to look for in mid-major teams with NBA scoring talent is value on the under. The first seven totals that were released for West Carolina that season all finished under.
This year’s candidates: Weber State, IUPUI, Ball State, Detroit
Key games
Oral Roberts at Gonzaga – Thursday, Dec. 15
Oral Roberts can’t cover at just 1-5 ATS this season. The Golden Eagles were favorites in each of those games and by no less than eight points. Regardless of their small value to handicappers, they should be a top contender for the Summit League title and will come in as underdogs in Spokane against mid-major powerhouse Gonzaga
Weber State at California - Friday Dec. 16
The 8-2 Golden Bears will put their undefeated home record on the line against Weber State and the nation’s leading scorer. Damian Lillard is averaging 26.9 points per game and, earlier in the month, he put up 41 points, four assists and eight rebounds against San Jose State. He could be in for a huge performance as Lillard will look to impress with scouts watching his every move now and also with this being a homecoming for the Oakland native
Mississippi State at Detroit - Saturday Dec. 17
The Titans got off to an awful start to the season, mainly because they were a bit overvalued with former McDonalds All-American Ray McCallum Jr. on the roster. However, they provided value in their last three games, going 2-1 overall and a perfect 3-0 ATS. They were particularly impressive in their 62-54 road loss to Alabama, where they were 14.5-point dogs. With Mississippi State, they have another tough test from the SEC, but this time they have the benefit of home court.