Lessons Learned From First Weekend
By DAVID PAYNE
What goes up, must come down. I entered the NCAA tournament on an 18-5-2 roll. I’m 5-16-2 since.
It started with Florida failing to cover in a double-OT debacle against BYU and really hit rock bottom with an 0-3 performance on Sunday’s late games. On top of it, I had Kansas to win it all in three of my four brackets.
Needless to say, I’m not exactly bubbling over with confidence right now. Usually when I get this way, I start thinking things like ‘I should just play every dog or every under.’
After the first two rounds, underdogs are 24-23-1 ATS. Twenty-five of the 48 games went over the total.
So, while I wouldn’t be down 11 units betting every dog or under, I certainly wouldn’t have given my piggy bank a stiffy, either. It’s that kind of thinking that extends slumps.
“It’s very important not to change your methods because of a slump. That’s where a lot of bettors get in trouble,” said Covers Expert Scott Rickenbach, who has 20-plus top 5 finishes in documented handicapping contests. “Slumps happen to the best cappers in the industry but the key is to keep doing what has worked for years and not suddenly change up methods just because of a tough, short-term run.
“The most important thing is to release less plays and be more selective; plus possibly reduce unit ratings or dollars wagered until a slump is busted. Once it's over, then units and number of plays can return to normal levels.”
That’s spot-on, slump-busting stuff right there.
It’s also why I’m destined to stay stuck in mine for the rest of the tournament.
For the record, I’m already a pretty tight bettor. I rarely exceed two units, and have bet 23 of the 48 games so far. Does that seem excessive?
It is, after all, March Madness, my favorite time to bet. So, honestly, I just don’t see myself limiting my plays right now. Odds are I’ll bet either the side or total of the remaining 15 NCAA tournament games.
So, with all due respect to Mr. Rickenbach, I’ve decided to turn to you, the always intelligent Covers Community, for advice on how to turn things around down the stretch. Now, that’s thinking that’s sure to end a slump.
While I eagerly await your suggestions, here are 10 things that you should know about the last two weeks of the college basketball season.
1. Don’t lump in Syracuse with the rest of the overrated Big East. With or without big man Arinze Onuaku, the Orange look like the team to beat on that side of the bracket. Syracuse is being very cautious with Onuaku’s ailing knee. He missed practice Monday, and it seems unlikely that he’ll play Thursday against Butler.
2. It’s been a great run for Cornell.
3. Duke has struggled with big, physical guards. They got manhandled by Georgetown’s physical backcourt of Chris Wright (6-1, 208) and Austin Freeman (6-3, 227). Purdue’s backcourt of Chris Kramer (6-3, 214) and Keaton Grant (6-4, 201) is more physical than the Hoyas.
4. Michigan State went 0-3 while Kalin Lucas was battling an ankle injury in early February. On Monday, Spartan coach Tom Izzo said it was a 90 percent Lucas would not play against Northern Iowa Friday.
5. Coaching has been horrific. Bill Self said before losing to Northern Iowa that his team is not a pressing team. But the Jayhawks got back in the game by letting their NBA talent loose. Why keep the reins on the thoroughbreds, Coach?
6. Coaching has been absolutely atrocious. Too often, teams that have a chance to win on the final possession have failed to get quality shots. Billy Donovan, I’m talking to you.
7. Syracuse gets the best shots of any team left in the field. The Orange are shooting 51.9 percent from the floor.
8. West Virginia has some serious home-court advantage in Syracuse, Thursday against Washington.
9. If Kentucky big man DeMarcus Cousins got annoyed with Wake Forest’s physical defense, what’s he going to think about West Virginia?
10. According to the Pomeroy Ratings, the top five teams remaining the in the tournament are: Duke, Kentucky, Syracuse, Ohio State and Kansas State.