Magic-Hawks Outlook
By Brian Edwards
**No. 1 Orlando Magic vs. No. 3 Atlanta Hawks**
Series Price: Orlando (-725) Atlanta (+525)
Series Format: Orlando 2-2-1-1-1
Skinny: Orlando has been relaxing for more than a week after sweeping Charlotte, while Atlanta has already faced a pair of elimination games in just scraping past an injury-riddled Milwaukee squad. What does this mean? Well, it means the Magic are poised to make quick work of the Hawks, or perhaps – just perhaps – the close call with the Bucks has ‘turned a light on’ for Mike Woodson’s extremely talented, albeit inconsistent and undisciplined, club.
Stan Van Gundy’s squad dominated Atlanta in the first three head-to-head meetings of the regular season. Dwight Howard enjoys a height advantage over the Hawks’ undersized Al Horford, who is a natural power forward that plays center. Howard has been able to get Horford in foul trouble, forcing Woodson to turn to Zaza Pachulia. Jason Collins, a veteran center who hasn’t played many minutes this year, is probably best suited to guard Howard so don’t be surprised to see him getting more minutes in this series.
Howard didn’t play much more than 20 minutes in a 12-point, seven-rebound effort in a 113-81 win over the Hawks. However, in the three other regular-season meetings, the former high school star in the Atlanta area had the following numbers: 22 points and 17 rebounds, 19 points and 24 boards and 31 and 19. Meanwhile, Horford averaged just 8.0 points and 7.3 boards against the Magic. The two-time national champion at the University of Florida averaged 14.2 PPG and 9.9 RPG during the regular season.
If Woodson elects to double Howard, this could result in open looks from beyond the arc for one of the NBA’s best 3-point shooting teams. Rashard Lewis, Jameer Nelson, J.J. Redick, Vince Carter, Jason Williams and Mickael Pietrus can all shoot effectively from 3-point land.
Atlanta has all sorts of offensive weapons, but this is a team that’s often reluctant to make the extra pass (see Games 3-5 of the Milwaukee series). Another weakness is the defense, or lack thereof, from guards Jamal Crawford and Mike Bibby. Crawford garnered Sixth Man of the Year honors and deservedly so, scoring 18 PPG off the Hawks’ bench. He had a game-high 22 points and six assists in Sunday’s Game 7 clincher, a 95-74 home win over the Bucks.
Joe Johnson had his moments, both good and bad, in the Milwaukee series. He fouled out for the first time this season in the Game 5 home loss. Then in Game 7, Johnson was 4-of-14 from the floor and scored just eight points. Without question, Johnson will have to have a huge series for Atlanta to be competitive. In addition, Johnson will have to impress others if he has any hopes of earning a ‘max contract’ when he becomes a free agent this offseason. (Remmber, JJ turned down a four-year, $60 million contract extension last summer.)
Gambling Notes: Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Orlando as a 7 ½-point favorite with a total of 192 ½ for Game 1. As of Monday afternoon, most betting shops had moved the Magic up to an 8 ½-point ‘chalk’ with the total at 192. Bettors can take the Hawks on the money line in the series opener for a monster plus-400 return (risk $100 to win $400).
Orlando has won six of its last seven head-to-head meetings against Atlanta, while the ‘under’ has cashed in each of the last five encounters.
The Hawks have gone 8-15 SU and 13-10 ATS as road underdogs this year. Game 1 represents their healthiest situation as underdogs since catching 8 ½ and nine points in spread covers against the Lakers and Celtics, respectively, back in November. They beat Boston outright 97-96 on Nov. 13 and lost a 118-110 decision to Phil Jackson’s squad.
Outlook: This depends on what Atlanta team shows up. If the Hawks share the basketball and play defense like they did in Games 6 and 7 against the Bucks, then they can make this interesting and push it to six and maybe even seven games. But we have no reason to believe that Atlanta can put together that sort of sustained effort. The Magic will most likely take care of business in five games.
Future Bets: You can still take the Magic to win it all for a plus-350 payout at BoDog.com (risk $100 to win $350). The Hawks now have 40/1 odds to win their first NBA title at BoDog. The series price is too expensive (minus-725) to go with Orlando against Atlanta (risk $725 just to win $100), so I recommend passing.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Orlando reserve guard Mickael Pietrus sprained his ankle during Sunday’s practice and is listed as “questionable” for Game 1. Pietrus averages 8.6 points per game and had 13 points in the Game 4 clincher at Charlotte.
The Magic put the Bobcats to sleep by capturing a 99-90 win as a four-point road favorite on April 26. Vince Carter scored a team-high 21 points to lead five Orlando players in double figures. Howard fouled out and was limited to 23 minutes, prompting his comments about officials on his blog page that earned him a $35,000 fine from the league office. Howard had six points, six assists and 13 boards in the clincher at Charlotte.
Horford set the tone for the Hawks in their Game 7 win over Milwaukee. He finished with 15 points, 15 rebounds, four assists and three blocked shots.
Josh Smith spent most of his time in Games 3 and 4 at Milwaukee crying to the refs during just about every dead-ball situation. However, he played like a seasoned veteran and a dominant defender in the two elimination games. His shot-blocking presence defensively will be key against the Magic, not to mention his playmaking offensively. Smith is the one Atlanta player who can cause matchup problems for Orlando at both ends of the floor.
This is the first time the Magic and Hawks have met in the playoffs.
Atlanta has never advanced past the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Hawks nearly made the East finals in 1988, but Larry Bird’s 20-point fourth quarter offset Dominique Wilkins’ 47-point effort in Boston’s 118-116 Game 7 win at the Boston Garden.
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