West Region Preview
by Robert Ferringo
Underrated. That's the theme of the West Region of the NCAA Tournament. But while Memphis is the team that most bobbleheads are declaring the most "slighted", I think that you could make a case that they are, in fact, the least slighted team in this conference.
Connecticut was No. 1 at various points in the season and it seems like they are a distant fourth or fifth as a favorite to cut down the nets. Purdue and Washington, while each won either their conference's regular season or tournament title, are the object of a lot of first-round upset predictions. Marquette has been completely written off. Cal and BYU are two of the best shooting teams in the country and were real players in their respective conference races, yet they are afterthoughts.
The only thing that might supercede the talent in this region is the motivation. Here's one man's look at the West (Glendale) Region:
No. 1 Seed: Connecticut
Don't sleep on the Huskies, boys and girls. This team might be the most disrespected No. 1 seed in the Big Dance this year. But in 30 games this year the Huskies have won 27, lost twice to fellow No. 1 seed Pitt, and lost in six overtimes to Syracuse. Not too shabby. This team absolutely dominates the post and is perhaps the best rebounding team in the country. Hasheem Thabeet changes games, Jeff Adrien is one of the most underrated players in the country, and A.J. Price is one of the best clutch guards in the country. I think a critical player for the Huskies is freshman Kemba Walker. The kid has shown flashes. But he'll need to perform in March if this team wants to overcome Jerome Dyson's injury and make a serious run.
No. 2 Seed: Memphis
I wrote an article on the homepage this week about how I felt Memphis was one of the more overrated teams in the country right now. This team has just one win - at Gonzaga, a West Coast Conference team - against teams in the Top 40. They lost to Xavier, Georgetown and Syracuse in their only other three opportunities. This team has virtually no perimeter threats and is one of the worst shooting teams in the country. But they are tremendously physical and athletic in the post and they simply pound teams that don't have an inside presence. This team will try to make a move on the back of its defense. But eventually I think they will run into a team with equal athletes. When that happens, the Tigers are toast.
No. 3 Seed: Missouri
Missouri has emerged as one of the true dark horse teams in the NCAA Tournament and are a sexy pick to make the Final Four after their sweet run to the Big 12 title. This team presses and has the best perimeter defense in the nation, hands down. If teams don't take care of the ball and can't handle the Tigers pressure then games can get ugly in a hurry. This team hasn't been great on the road and they did lose to their two best nonconference opponents (Illinois, Xavier) on neutral courts. Also, pressing teams haven't stuck around very long in recent tournaments. But there is no denying that this team playing great right now and is a force to be reckoned with.
No. 4 Seed: Washington
Very quietly the Huskies dominated an underrated Pac-10 this season. They have four double-digit scorers, one of the top forwards in the country (Jon Brockman) and one of the best freshman in the country (Isaiah Thomas). This team likes to get things going to the basket and get virtually all of their points in the lane or at the free throw line. An issue though is that this club has virtually no nonconference resume and that they have played only 14 games away from home this year, losing half of them. However, I do think that this club is being underestimated at the moment.
No. 5 Seed: Purdue
The Boilermakers have had a star-crossed season this year. They began the season as the Big Ten favorite and a national title contender. Then came a tough overtime loss to Oklahoma in New York followed by a blowout loss at home to Duke. After that, Robbie Hummel's injury lingered throughout conference play and this team slid to just 11-7 in league play. But now Hummel is back and healthy and the Boilers just ripped through the conference tournament to give them a load of momentum heading into this weekend.
Best first-round match up: No. 7 California vs. No. 10 Maryland
Cal is the top three-point shooting team in the entire country and has three of the best perimeter players you can find west of the Mississippi. Maryland has been playing really focused, skilled basketball now for three weeks to squeeze into the tournament field. Greivis Vasquez is one of the top all-around players in the country and if the Terps are good enough to beat UNC and Wake Forest they are good enough to make a run. But Mike Montgomery has this Golden Bears team believing in his system and believing in themselves. This is a tough one to call, but I think the winner has a great shot at upsetting Memphis in the second round.
Best potential second-round match up: No. 4 Washington vs. No. 5 Purdue
These are two of the most underrated clubs in the country heading into the NCAA Tournament and this would be a rare, but interesting, Pac-10 vs. Big Ten matchup. Each club boasts its superstar (Brockman vs. Hummel) and both clubs have a lot of versatility and skill on the wings and in the backcourt. I simply think that these teams match up very well and, because of their proven track records, would give us a great game.
Upset Alert (first round): No. 4 Washington vs. No. 13 Mississippi State
The Huskies are a team that gets most of its offense driving to the basket and tossing in floaters in the lane. But they are facing the premier shot-blocker in the country in Jarvis Varnardo. That's bad news for the Huskies. Mississippi State is a team riding a lot of momentum right now, having won their tournament berth with four straight wins in the SEC Tournament. They surround the perimeter with shooters and they could ride their wave to a first round upset. Also, Washington's two best players - Brockman and Thomas - are two of their worst free throw shooters.
Upset Alert (second round): No. 2 Memphis vs. No. 7 California
This will be a matchup between one of the best perimeter scoring teams in the nation against one of the best perimeter defenses in the nation. Cal is a team that has won at Utah, lost by just three to Florida State, and swept Washington. All three of those teams have comparable size and strength underneath to the Tigers. Again, if Cal is hitting from deep then they can take down any club in the country.
Dark Horse team: No. 5 Purdue
I really like the focus and the mojo that this team has going for it right now. And if they can get to a matchup with Connecticut in the Sweet 16 and win, I don't see anything that can slow this team from a march to the Final Four. This is yet another team whose success simply boils down to its ability to make shots from the perimeter. If Hummel, Keaton Grant, and E-Moore are knocking down threes then this team defends and rebounds well enough to beat anyone.
Team That Makes Me Nervous: No. 6 Marquette
There is no doubt that the loss of Dominic James has weakened this team. They were a Final Four sleeper before he was lost for the year and now they are being picked by a lot of bobbleheads to potentially lose in the first round. And that's what gets me: everyone has already written this veteran team off. They did close the year with five losses in six games. But three of those losses were to No. 1 seeds (Pitt, Louisville, UConn) and the other two were to No. 3 seeds (Syracuse, Villanova) in overtime and by one point.
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South Region Preview
by Robert Ferringo
Every year in the NCAA Tournament there is one region that is just absolutely loaded. I'm talking comically loaded. I'm talking six or seven national title contenders crammed into the same region. Well, this year it's the South Region in Memphis.
If there is any doubt about the talent level in this part of the bracket, just check out what would be the All-South Region if you were putting together an all-star team:
Point Guard - Johnny Flynn
Shooting Guard - Marcus Thornton
Small Forward - James Harden
Power Forward - Blake Griffin
Center - Tyler Hansbrough
That's four 1st Team All-American talents and the SEC Player of the Year. And that is also friggin' ridiculous.
Here's one man's look at the South (Memphis) Region:
No. 1 Seed: North Carolina
There's not much I can tell you about the Tar Heels that you don't already know. This team is still the favorite to win it all despite an injured point guard, a poor conference tournament showing, and the fact that they play absolutely no defense. But this group of Tar Heels does have experience. The core of this team - Hansbrough, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green and Ty Lawson - lost in overtime of the Elite Eight in 2007 and in the Final Four to the eventual champions in 2008. This is their last chance to bring home a title, and they'll have to do it out of the most difficult region on the bracket.
No. 2 Seed: Oklahoma
The Sooners spent practically the entire season in the Top 8 in the country and, I believe, are a bit undervalued right now. Yes, they are just 2-4 in their last six games. But two of those losses came without Blake Griffin, one was at Missouri, and then another was a heated Bedlam game in the Big 12 Tournament. However, I don't let that dampen what this team has shown me throughout the season. They are No. 6 in field goal offense and No. 32 in field goal defense and they possess Griffin, the most dominating player in the country. The key, as always, is getting good guard play. I love Willie Warren's game and Tony Crocker is a savvy vet. But the key player is Austin Johnson, who seems injured and has disappeared in the latter part of the season.
No. 3 Seed: Syracuse
If Syracuse is still playing after the first weekend of the tournament then this is a team that could win it all. Syracuse has been sensational over the last several weeks since they have gotten healthy and since Kristof Ongenut has returned to the lineup. They are coming off an emotionally and physically draining run in the Big East Tournament so this team could be primed for a letdown. But after two consecutive snubs by the NCAA Tournament I think this team will want to make a statement and stick around for a while. They have one of the best backcourts in the country and, again, if they can play with the same energy and passion that they exhibited in New York City then this club will be a tough out.
No. 4 Seed: Gonzaga
Gonzaga has been perpetually overrated in the NCAA Tournament in recent seasons. After a Sweet 16 loss in 2006 the Bulldogs have been bounced in back-to-back first round games. It's the last chance for this group of players and they appear motivated to make a final push. The Bulldogs are one of the best offensive teams in the country and their +17 winning margin per game is one of the best in the country. The problem I have with this team is that they are like a mid-major version of Duke: they are incredibly soft in the middle. This team doesn't defend the post and they could have trouble with an athletic and frantic team like Western Kentucky.
No. 5 Seed: Illinois
The Illini are one of the more dangerous team in the entire bracket because they could be poised for a first round flameout or a Sweet 16 run. Bruce Weber's club has been overachievers all season long but they'll be without their starting point guard, senior three-year starter Chet Frazier. Demetri McCamey is one of the more explosive guards in the region and will be looking to bounce back from a poor showing in the Big Ten tournament. This team is a soft, perimeter oriented team and it all comes down to whether or not they are making shots.
Best first-round match up: No. 8 LSU vs. No. 9 Butler
Butler has feasted on athletic, but undisciplined teams over the last three years and this game sets up very well for them as an underdog. This is a young Bulldogs team and a club that I didn't expect much from this season. But they are disciplined, play great defense, they execute, and they are dangerous because they live (or die) with the three-point shot. LSU is a team that can do some serious damage if they move deeper into the bracket. They have two exceptional players in SEC Player of the Year Marcus Thornton (20.7 ppg) and forward Tasmin Mitchell (16.3 ppg), and solid guard play to go along with an athletic center, Chris Johnson. However, LSU lost three of its four nonconference games to teams ranked in the Top 50 by double digits. That includes a 10-point home loss to Xavier, and 11-point and 30-point losses at Texas A&M and Utah, respectively.
Best potential second-round match up: No. 3 Syracuse vs. No. 6 Arizona State
Perhaps the best point guard in the country (Johnny Flynn) and the best perimeter player in the country (James Harden) could square off in a star-studded second-round game. Both of these teams were snubbed from The Big Dance last year and both are looking for retribution. Syracuse has proven itself against the top teams in the country this year while Arizona State has really been mediocre, at best, over the last two seasons against Top 50 opponents. But this is a good matchup for ASU. They can surround the Syracuse zone with shooters and if their supporting players are knocking down shots they could bury the Orange. But Syracuse's guards should decimate any ASU defense thrown at them and the Orange does have a lot of steam right now.
Upset Alert (first round): No. 3 Syracuse vs. No. 14 Stephen F. Austin
This is a prime letdown spot for the Orange after an emotional run in the Big East Tournament. Factor in travel, a noon tip-off, and the natural tendency to look ahead to potential matchups with Arizona State, Oklahoma and North Carolina and I could see a perfect Letdown/Look Ahead situation here. SFA is the No. 1 field goal defense in the country and could slow this game down to a crawl. The boon for Syracuse: SFA is not a good shooting team and they have double-digit losses to Texas Tech and Arkansas this season.
Upset Alert (second round): No. 7 Clemson vs. No. 2 Oklahoma
Clemson is one of the few teams that can actually matchup with the size of Oklahoma. Trevor Booker might be the most underrated forward in the country and it would be a great one-on-one matchup with Griffin. Also, I like Clemson's guards better than OU's backcourt and I think that the running, pressing, trapping style of the Tigers could exploit the Sooners' weakness and help negate Griffin's impact.
Dark Horse team: No. 6 Arizona State
When you have one of the best perimeter players in the field you are going to be dangerous in March. James Harden is unstoppable one-on-one and Jeff Pendergraph gives the Sun Devils a legit post presence to throw the ball into. The Sun Devils have just one win over Top 50 teams over the past two seasons, but their slow pace and quirky offense, coupled with Harden, makes them a very difficult team to prepare for. The key for ASU is knocking down shots. When their supporting players are hitting threes then this offense can be unguardable. This team has shot over 50 percent in its last four games. If they carry that over then this team can be an X-Factor.
Team That Makes Me Nervous: No. 3 Syracuse
A lot of people are really high on this Syracuse team. And as my alma mater I obviously have a personal stake in their success. But I just wonder what that run at Madison Square Garden has taken out of them. After that they would have a tricky matchup with Arizona State and then would likely have to tussle with powerhouses Oklahoma and North Carolina. And that's just to get to the Final Four! Syracuse has the talent to play with anyone in the country. Hand's down. And their guard play is sensational. But sometimes they don't do the little things - not turn the ball over, rebound, making free throws - that cost teams this time of the year.
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