March Madness Notes
By Bookmaker.eu
Three sleeper picks to advance deep into the NCAA Tournament
Cinderella is never sleeping when the Big Dance comes around every March. Small programs like Butler, Virginia Commonwealth and George Mason have advanced to the Final Four in the last six years, so why not another?
Identifying and betting on a few sleeper teams, or Cinderella squads, is a fun and often profitable way to approach March Madness wagering. Had you put $100 on VCU to win the Southwest Region last season, you would have cashed out almost two grand.
Below, we identify a trio of "sleeper" teams that won't carry high tournament seeds but could make some noise in the latter stages of March Madness.
Memphis Tigers - Once a perennial contender when John Calipari broke every NCAA recruiting law in the book, the Tigers aren't even the unquestioned top team in Conference USA anymore. Memphis does carry a league-best 11-3 mark, but programs like Southern Miss and Tulsa have jumped into elite status as well. What we like about this year's squad is that seven of the nine players from the team that made the Big Dance last year are back, including four starters.
The Tigers played Arizona in the first round of the tourney and nearly upset the Wildcats (who made it all the way to the Elite Eight) as 5.5-point underdogs, losing 77-75. Will Barton has emerged as a stud in college basketball and will be a tough challenge for any defender to contain.
California Golden Bears - Some don't think the Pac-12 even deserves a conference-winner bid this season because it's so down. But Mike Montgomery has a beast of a squad in Berkeley. Cal has only dropped one game at home this year and is the only profitable Pac-12 team from a wagering standpoint, going 16-12 ATS.
The Bears won't beat you with jumpers but they are evenly balanced on both sides of the ball, and equilibrium can go a long way in the NCAA Tournament. If you recall, last year everyone was bad-mouthing the Pac-12 teams in the tourney but Washington beat Georgia in the first round and Arizona pulled off one upset after another on its way to the Elite Eight. Don't put the Bears in auto-hibernation come March.
Gonzaga Bulldogs - Gonzaga is the first team that really earned the title of "Cinderella." But once the Bulldogs started advancing to the tournament year after year, and often deep into it, that title was cast aside and they were viewed as legitimate contenders. St. Mary's has become the new trendy pick out of the West Coast Conference but don't sleep on the Zags.
They have a long team with two future NBAers in the 7-foot Robert Sacre and the 6-foot-7 Elias Harris. These two terrorizing frontcourt members, along with 6-foot-9 sixth man Sam Dower, don't allow many second-chance opportunities for opponents. The defense has been strong all season, evidenced by a 7-20-1 over/under record. Mark Few understands how to get the most out of his players come March.
Kentucky and Syracuse likely top seeds in NCAA Tournament
With just one blemish on their regular season records, Kentucky and Syracuse will almost certainly claim the top two seeds in the NCAA Tournament. That honor comes with inflated spreads for the first few rounds of the Big Dance. Both the Wildcats and Orange will be no less than 17-point favorites in their first tournament game.
The Wildcats have been voted as the No. 1 team in the nation by the pollsters six straight weeks. They haven't dropped a game at Rupp Arena all season, but haven't been a good team to bet on at home, going just 4-12-1 against the spread there. John Calipari's club finishes out the regular season with a home game against Georgia on Thursday and then a roadie at Florida on Sunday. Kentucky has a 1-6 over/under record on the road this year.
Syracuse hasn't lost at the Carrier Dome and will wrap up the regular season at home on Saturday versus Louisville. The Orange's suffocating zone defense has been sharp on their home floor, helping produce a 6-10-1 over/under mark there.
Kansas won seven games in a row, including Monday's victory at Oklahoma State, to clinch the outright Big 12 title and likely a NCAA Tournament No. 1 seed. The Jayhawks battled from 19 down in the second half Saturday to defeat Mizzou -- the same team that handed them their last loss on February 4. Bill Self has mentioned the immaturity of his young team at times, and inexperience isn't always a good thing during March Madness. Kansas hasn't cashed a single over in a road game this year.
The final top seed for the Big Dance is likely to be Michigan State. If the Spartans beat Ohio State in the regular season finale at home, where they are 11-3 ATS, they will win the Big Ten title.
MSU started the season unranked and then lost its first two games to North Carolina and Duke. But this program always seems to peak at the right time. No matter what state they enter the tourney in; Tom Izzo always has his Sparties ready to play come March.
If Duke wins the ACC tournament then it would make a strong case to the committee for a No. 1 bid.
Ohio State, an early favorite to win the national championship, has lost three of its last five games overall. If the Buckeyes can't win their conference tournament then they will look more like a No. 2 or 3 seed in the betting brackets rather than a No. 1.