Mavericks-Spurs Outlook
By Kevin Rogers
No. 2 Dallas Mavericks vs. No. 7 San Antonio Spurs
Series Price: Dallas -150, San Antonio +130
Series Format: Dallas, 2-2-1-1-1
Skinny: These two Texas rivals get together for the second straight postseason as the Spurs look to avenge last year's first round defeat to the Mavs in five games. Dallas wrapped up the second seed in the Western Conference playoffs by knocking off San Antonio on Wednesday, as the Spurs fell down to the seventh spot.
The Mavs were a struggling squad heading towards the All-Star Break, dropping five of six games. Dallas pulled the trigger on a deal that changed its bad luck into good fortune with the acquisitions of Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood from Washington for Josh Howard. Following a loss at Oklahoma City, the Mavs ran off 13 straight victories to take control of the Southwest Division. Dallas concluded the season with five consecutive wins, while covering each game in this span.
The Spurs may not have home-court advantage in this round, but San Antonio has played solid basketball since the end of February. Gregg Popovich's club won 18 of its final 26 games, while going 12-4 with Tony Parker out due to a hand injury. San Antonio couldn't get over the hump in the division, as the Spurs lost the tiebreaker for the sixth spot by losing two of three to the Blazers.
Dallas took three of the four regular season meetings with San Antonio, including the season finale victory at home. The Spurs played without Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, as San Antonio fell by a 96-89 count. The Mavs edged the Spurs in the other home contest in overtime, 99-94 back in November as three-point favorites. The two teams split the two matchups at the AT&T Center, as San Antonio won without Parker and Duncan in mid-November, 92-83. The Spurs drilled 14 three-pointers in that victory, while cashing as 1 ½-point home 'dogs. Dallas avenged that loss with a huge fourth-quarter rally in early January, outscoring San Antonio, 42-23 for a 112-103 triumph.
Gambling Notes: The Mavs were a notoriously horrible home favorite this season, going through a 2-26-1 ATS stretch from November 20 through March 20. Dallas finished strong as home 'chalk,' by covering four of its final five. Rick Carlisle's squad was money on the road down the stretch, cashing ten of the last 12 on the highway.
The Spurs ended the season by compiling a 9-2 ATS mark at home, while finishing 'over' the total in seven of the last ten at the AT&T Center. San Antonio picked up several quality road underdog victories over the last month including wins over the Lakers, Celtics, Nuggets, Thunder, and Heat.
Dallas covered in all four victories in the playoff series last season, even though San Antonio did own home-court advantage. For the exception of the 105-84 Game 2 win, the Spurs were held to under 100 points in each of the four losses.
Series Outlook: This will be one of the two most competitive series in the Western Conference, along with Denver and Utah. These teams know each other very well, and the Spurs have been at this stage plenty of times. With the pick-up of Butler in February, the Mavs now own one of the most complete starting lineups in the league, to go along with Jason Terry coming off the bench. San Antonio will give Dallas everything they have, but the Mavs will come out on top in six games.
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