Mid-Major Report
By Nick Parsons
Covers.com
The Road to Perfection
The Green Bay Packers failed to do it in the NFL and so did the Colts, but two mid-major college basketball teams have a reasonable opportunity to provide sports fans with perfect seasons.
Murray State is 20-0 and is No. 9 in the Coaches Poll, while Towson is on the opposite end of the spectrum at 0-21.
The Racers and their rise in the polls have made them one of the better fades in college basketball. In January, they have only managed to cover once in six games and while four of those games had double-digits spreads, none of them were over 20 points, so it’s not as if Murray State was dealing with ridiculous numbers.
Towson, meanwhile, has been up in down (in terms of covering). It provided solid value and covered as a 20-plus-point dog against Georgia State and George Mason, but any team that shoots 36.4 percent is also more than capable of getting blown out by 30. This was the case in the Old Dominion game where it lost 71-41 as a 17-point dog.
Teams like Murray State have to be treated like the Dukes and North Carolinas of the world. The Racers’ games are getting more attention and books are well aware that looking for Murray State to cover is a public bet. The Racers have the ability to cover, as was seen in their 12-point win over Austin Peay as 4-point favorites. But it’s safe to say that Murray State are the Lakers, Yankees, Patriots of mid-major hoops.
The Tigers meanwhile are volatile, so just have fun with it. Take the moneyline perhaps or just simply enjoy the next two months of their pursuit of history. Also look for Bill Murray in the crowd. His son Luke is the assistant coach
NBA Draft watch
Ken Horton – Central Connecticut State
Very few books release lines on Northeast Conference games, but Ken Horton is a name that is slowly creeping on the radar of NBA scouts. The 6-foot-7 senior swingman has eight double-doubles this season and is averaging 20.4 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. LIU Brooklyn is dominating NEC play, but Horton will make the Blue Devils a value threat to win the NEC Tournament.
Value teams to look at
Bowling Green – Just 8-10, but one of the better cover teams with an 11-4 ATS record.
Penn – Currently on a three-game winning streak, including an 84-80 over St. Joseph’s of the A-10. The Quakers were underdogs in all three games.
South Dakota State – Averaging 79.9 points per game and coming off a huge OT win against North Dakota. Key game vs. Oakland Thursday, but the Jackrabbits have provided value all season long, going 10-2-1 ATS.
Games to watch
Thursday, Jan. 26 – Butler at Wisconsin-Milwaukee
While no game is a must-win during the mid-major regular season, this serves as a key turning point for both teams. Butler slowly seems to be rounding into form, but its current three-game winning streak is deceiving, as it was against the worst teams of the Horizon League. The Panthers lost both road games last week and now have two tough games at home with Butler and Valparaiso. Four straight losses are a strong possibility for a team that was on the rise.
Friday, Jan. 27 – Harvard at Yale
This will be the toughest conference test for the 16-2 Crimson, who are currently undefeated in Ivy League play. Payne Whitney provides one of the more intimate settings in college basketball and the last time these two rivals met here, Yale won 70-69. It should be an intense atmosphere.
Saturday, Jan. 28 – VCU at Georgia State
The Panthers were one of the surprising teams (and best ATS bets) to start the season, but CAA play has got the better of them. However, all three of their losses in conference play have been within three points and GSU is still undefeated at home. VCU is the darling of the CAA and baring an upset from Towson Wednesday night, the Rams will head into this contest on a six-game winning streak.
Saturday, Jan. 28 - Middle Tennessee State at Vanderbilt
If the Blue Raiders defeat Troy Thursday night, they will head into this non-conference matchup with a 20-2 record and riding a 12-game winning streak. With Vanderbilt being one of the best teams in the SEC and the Sun Belt providing little challenge, this could be MTSU’s only true test before the Big Dance.