Mid-major report: Big dollars in Rocky Mountain schools
By Nick Parsons
Welcome to your weekly dosage of mid-major college basketball info. Lines have become sharper in recent years, but there is still value to be had. Here are couple tidbits of info for bettors to be aware of.
Rocky Mountain High
The Colorado Buffaloes and the Colorado State Rams have been surprising everyone but it’s been the two smaller schools in the Rocky Mountain State which have presented great value for bettors. The Denver Pioneers started as one of the worst cover teams going 1-9 ATS but since Sun Belt play began, they are 5-0 and have only failed to cover once. The Big Sky’s Northern Colorado Bears are also undefeated in conference play and are currently on a 4-1 ATS streak
New Horizon
Butler’s stranglehold of the Horizon League seems to have loosened with several teams emerging as legitimate conference contenders. The Bulldogs already have two losses during conference play, the most recent coming to Wright State. Valparaiso and Cleveland State are much improved as well, making that automatic bid for Butler not so certain.
Overvalued: St Mary’s Overs
Averaging 84.1 points per game and with a field goal percentage above 50, the Gaels are one of the most efficient and exciting offenses in college basketball. So, naturally, everyone wants to bet on the over in their games. However, their last three games have gone under and that the over has only hit once in WCC play. Conference rivals realize that the only chance they have against St. Mary’s is to slow down the pace and books will continue to set lines for their games in the mid 140s or higher.
Undervalued: Marist Unders
With the Red Foxes of the MAAC, we have the exact opposite of St. Mary’s. Marist is 4-15, averages less than 60 points per game and is ranked 333rd (out of 346) in field goal percentage. But books have been giving their games lines of 130 points and above - their most recent game versus Iona had a total of 144. The reasoning is that Marist’s opponents will put up a ton of points, which they have been doing, but Marist can't seem to fulfill its end of the bargain with its last five games going under the total.
NBA Talent Watch: Keith Benson, Oakland Grizzlies
Around March, expect to be hearing a lot about the star man for the Golden Grizzlies. The senior center is averaging 16.6 ppg and 10.2 rpg and is expected to go in the late first round or early second round of this year’s NBA Draft. The Summit League favorites have an impressive 13-6-1 ATS record and are on a four-game ATS winning streak.
Key Games
James Madison at Old Dominion, Wednesday Jan. 19
It’s a battle of royal proportions with two of the CAA’s top teams squaring off Wednesday night. Old Dominion is 7-1 at home but the visiting James Madison Dukes will be going into the contest on a nine-game winning streak. The Monarchs of Old Dominion were 2-0 head-to-head last year and were double-digit favorites in both.
St Mary’s at Vanderbilt, Saturday Jan. 22
Fans of smaller programs won’t have to wait for March for an us-versus-them contest. The Gaels are arguably the top mid-major team in the nation and will make a trip to SEC territory to take on Vanderbilt. This is a rematch of last season’s contest in which the Commodores won 72-70 and covered as 5-point to road underdogs.
Indiana State at Wichita State Saturday Jan. 22
Big Missouri Valley contest this weekend, with both heading into the week with identical 6-1 conference records. Indiana State has been a favorite for backers this year going 11-6 ATS and 5-2 ATS in MVC play. The Shockers are on a streak of their own having covered six times in their last seven games. Wichita State won in both meetings last year.