Mid Major Report: Bracket Busters Bad For Little Guys
By Nick Parsons
Welcome to your weekly dosage of mid-major college basketball info.
Lines have become sharper in recent years, but there is still value to
be had. Here are couple tidbits of info for bettors to be aware of.
Busting Brackets?
It's bracket buster week, which is always an interesting time for both mid major junkies and handicappers. Small schools get the ESPN spotlight and we get a glimpse into the relative strengths and weakness of each conference.
The 2006 bracket buster game between George Mason and Wichita State actually gave viewers a preview of two mid-majors that would reach the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament.
But just how important is this week for small schools? You can blowout a fellow mid major foe, but if you lose your conference tournament would you still get a bid? Does the Tournament Committee really think that an impressive performance in a bracket buster will warrant an “at large bid” for a small conference?
The attention and coverage on this week has increased over the years, but it has actually resulted in a reduced amount of at-large bids for small schools. Take a look below at the amount of “at large” bids from small conferences over the last five years:
2010
WCC 1
2009
Horizon 1
2008
WCC 2
Sun Belt 1
2007
CAA 1
Horizon 1
Missouri Valley 1
2006
CAA 1
Missouri Valley 3
As you can see last year, we just had one at-large bid from a small school, compared to four in 2006. Also let's take a look at the WCC in 2008 which had two at-large bids.
The bid was given to Gonzaga who actually didn’t even participate in Bracket Busters. They were upset by San Diego in the WCC Tournament finals, but they had a tough non-conference slate and wins over high profile teams like UConn. It didn't hurt either that this post Adam Morrison Zags team was ranked in the preseason.
The other at-large bid was given to St. Mary’s who actually choked in its bracket buster game against Kent State, losing 65-57 as a 9-point favorite. Still the committee felt that the Gaels deserved spot in the Tourney, mostly due to their tough non-conference schedule and a win over Gonzaga.
So as exciting as bracket buster weekend can be for fans and bettors, at large bids mostly occur when a high profile mid major is upset in a conference tournament, or if a team is already on everyone else’s radar.
Overvalued: Harvard Crimson
Earlier in the year we had them listed as an undervalued team, but sports handicapping is like stocks: buy low, sell high. Back teams when there is value in the line, but fade away once the books have adjusted to their actual ability.
Such is the case with the 18-4 Crimson who are 0-3 against the spread in their last three games and have just one ATS win in their last seven games. Oddsmakers are just overpricing this team - Havard can't cover double-digit spreads every game even in the Ivy League.
Undervalued: Northeastern Overs
In early January the Huskies were involved in one of the worst offensive displays in college basketball history losing 49-34 to Old Dominion. But in the 12 games since then, only one Northeastern game has gone under the total. Books have been posting lines in the mid 120s even though an average of 141.58 points have been scored since that Old Dominion game.
NBA Draft Watch – Norris Cole Cleveland State
Before the season began all the NBA talk in the Horizon League focused on Shelvin Mack, but another PG is popping on the scouting radar and he has not only produced better numbers, but his team is slightly ahead of Butler in the conference standings.
Senior Norris Cole and his 21.1 ppg have CSU off to 22-5 record. Cole recently put up a ridiculous stat line against Youngstown state: 41 points, nine assists and 20 rebounds.
He's now listed as a late second round pick in most mock drafts and Cole’s stock will surely improve if CSU can make it to the NCAA Tournament.