Mid Major Report: Butler Bulldogs Overvalued
By Nick Parsons
Don't get caught with your pants down betting college basketball's most obscure teams. Follow our mid major report and expand your hoops betting board.
Fade Not These Gentlemen
Without a doubt the worst team in Division I college basketball is the Summit League’s Centenary Gentlemen (that's not a typo, that’s their actual team name). They are 0-21 this season and rank 341st (out of 345) in scoring offense and are giving up 80 points per game, which ranks them 337th. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that they've been a bad bet. The Gentlemen are routinely given a 20 point or larger handicap and have actually managed to cover 4 times in their last 6 games. They also head into the week on a 4 game “over” streak. Expect to find value on the 29th against Summit leaders (and public favorite) Oakland.
Valley Guys
The most exciting title race in Mid-Major hoops belongs to the Missouri Valley Conference. Indiana State’s thrilling 1-point win over Missouri State ensured that there would be no undefeated teams in conference play. Both squads are in contention for first place along with Wichita State, Creighton and last year’s champs Northern Iowa. What this means is that bettors will have to treat this conference like they do the Big East. Basically you can data mine all you want and play certain trends, but from a handicapping standpoint, just look for value or perhaps don’t bet at all.
Overvalued Butler Bulldogs
The majority still seem to think that this is the same team that took Duke to the wire in last year’s national title game. And it doesn’t help that despite its losses, guys from ESPN still say that Butler deserves an at-large entry. But here are the facts the Bulldogs are 6-3 in conference play, have been heavy favorites in each one of those games and have only covered three times. Keep in mind though that the Butler regular season fade train isn’t anything new for sharp bettors. Last year Butler was perfect in conference play but managed to cover just twice in its final eight Horizon conference games.
Undervalued Northern Illinois
The Huskies of the MAC are 6-11 this year but have recently been a solid bet, with only one ATS loss since the beginning of 2011. They are regularly listed as underdogs and all their conference losses in January have come within five points. Xavier Silas has been leading the charge; the senior guard ranks fifth in the nation in scoring averaging 23.6 points per game. Their losing record, along with two recent close setbacks on the road, and a legitimate unknown offensive threat, should present solid value for NIU in the upcoming weeks.
NBA Talent Watch – Charles Jenkins Hofstra
Dozens of NBA scouts flocked to Hempstead, New York this past Monday to see the two top NBA prospects in the CAA square off. Hofstra guard, Charles Jenkins got the better of a James Madison’s Denzel Bowles in an epic 92-90 OT win. The Queens native seemed to love the attention from stands scoring 35 points, which no doubt raised his draft stock.
Key Games
Hofstra at VCU Thursday, Jan. 27
Hofstra won’t have too much time to celebrate its huge OT win, as the team now has to travel to Richmond Virginia to take on one of the hottest teams in college basketball, VCU. The Rams are on a seven-game win streak and are a perfect 9-0 at home. There is no doubt that their defensive game plan will focus around Jenkins, a strategy that worked well last year in their 81-68 over Hofstra while holding the star guard to 38 percent shooting.
St. Mary’s at Gonzaga Thursday Jan. 27
In recent years this has become the biggest game in Mid Major hoops. The fact this game is on ESPN and at 11 PM EST, also makes this a key “All-In” game for all you degenerates. Both teams, however, will be coming into this contest off disappointing results. Gonzaga lost to San Francisco and Santa Clara were blown out 89-70 by Vanderbilt over the weekend. Still this contest should be exciting. The Zags won both regular season contests last year, but St. Mary’s won in the third meeting at the WCC title game 81-62.
Butler at Valparaiso Saturday Jan. 29
This is the second meeting this season between these two teams with the Bulldogs winning on New Year’s Day 76-59. Both teams are in contention for top spot in the Horizon and will view this as a key game, especially coming off narrow losses. Valparaiso lost 63-61 to Wisconsin-Green Bay, while Butler most recently fell to Wisconsin-Milwaukee, 86-80 in OT.
Story from last week that did not make headlines
A total of 79 points were scored on Sunday when Eastern Michigan beat Central Michigan 41-38. The game easily went under the posted line of 117. The victors EMU shot 33.3 percent while CMU shot 23.3 percent in what could easily be described as the worst game in college basketball this season. And for some unfortunate reason, highlights of this game are uploaded on Youtube 43 views and counting.