Mid Major Report: FIU is Better Than You Think
By Nick Parsons
International Mystery
Isiah Thomas has seen better days (for younger cappers we're talking about the NBA legend and failed GM, not the UW PG). Wondering where he has been the last two years? Well the man who traded Trevor Ariza for Steve Francis and drafted Renaldo Balkman over Rajon Rondo, has taken his talents to South Beach and has been coaching Florida International the last two years.
He went 7-25 in Year 1 and the Panthers aren't much better this season at 8-14. But things could be on the rise for Zeke and his team.
FIU snapped out of its six game losing streak with a 81-80 win in OT over Troy and nearly beat Sun Belt East leaders Florida Atlantic on the road as a 12-point dog. Even during that losing streak the Panthers were competitive and kept all games within 10 points. Unlike the Thomas-led Knicks, the Panthers are playing like a team.
Five players are averaging double digits in points per game. Thomas did a good job of recruiting out of High School and JUCO ranks, and as the season progresses everyone seems to be improving.
The added negativity of having Thomas at the helm and their recent lack of wins, will present great value for bettors in the weeks ahead and perhaps during the conference tournament as well. Also they happen to be on an 8 game over streak.
Overvalued – Northern Iowa
Small school teams that have had previous success during the NCAA tournament tend to be good fades during the regular season. We've seen this happen with Gonzaga, Butler, Western Kentucky and Davidson.
Even though NIU enjoyed an eight game winning streak and is about .500 ATS, expect the squad to be bit overvalued as the year closes out. This isn't the same team that beat Kansas and made it to the Sweet 16.
The Panthers had key losses in the frontcourt with Jordan Eglseder and Adam Koch departing and no one has really filled that void with their top rebounder averaging just 5.7 rpgs per game.
The Missouri Valley is also much improved this year and with public attention shifting towards college basketball look for spot opportunities to fade Northern Iowa. The Panthers head into the weekend off of two road losses to Drake and Evansville in which they were favored in both games.
Undervalued - Weber State
Losing last year's Big Sky player of the year, Damian Lillard, was a huge blow for the Wildcats. Lillard was on a scoring tear before he broke his foot against Tulsa. Weber State hit a bit of slump after that, closing out December on a three game losing streak.
Gradually the team learned to live without Lillard. Lindsay Hughey and Scott Bamford have stepped up their game in the backcourt and the Wildcats have been 6-2 since the New Year. Most recently Weber State came out with wins over conference leaders Montana and Northern Colorado, in which it was an underdog in both contests.
NBA Draft Watch – Mark Payne UC Davis
Playing on the worst team in the Big West conference, won't necessarily get ESPN at your door, but NBA scouts have started to take notice of UC Davis SR Mark Payne, no relation to Covers.com columnist David. The 6-foot-8 point guard has the size and athleticism to play in the NBA.
He seemed to struggle a bit, failing to reach the 20-point plateau 16 games into the season, but since then he has produced two 30-point performances. From a handicapping standpoint, there will be tons of value on this last place team; we have an NBA talent looking to impress scouts as his college career closes. It's a recipe for a some solid plays.
Key Games
Bracket Buster weekend is coming up next week, which will help cappers identify the relative strength of certain conferences, but before that we have some good games for you mid-major junkies: