Mid-Major Report: Possible Small-Conference Cinderellas
By Nick Parsons
Covers.com
This past weekend in the NFL, the New York Giants upset the Green Bay Packers, rendering Green Bay's 15-1 regular season useless. Of course, if you're a glass-half-full person or a Giants fan, you look at it as the Giants rounding into form when it matters the most.
In small-school hoops, a team could have 20 losses during the regular season and still end up in the Big Dance if they win their conference tournament. Here's a quick look at teams that are playing sloppy right now, but could make a splash in early March.
IUPUI Jaguars (8-12, 4-7 ATS)
The Jaguars are currently on a four-game losing skid and have one of the worst defenses in the nation, allowing 76.8 points per game. However, they do have the highest rated mid-major NBA prospect in Alex Young, who will no doubt look to increase his stock towards the end of the season. They can't take it easy though, as the Summit League tournament only allows eight teams and IUPUI is currently in eighth.
Northern Colorado Bears (6-10, 8-6 ATS)
Weber State is clearly the top team in the Big Sky. However, all it takes is a team to get hot at the right time. Northern Colorado has been switching places with Creighton for the NCAA lead in 3-point shooting and are currently hitting at 46.2 percent from beyond the arc. The Bears are currently 6-10, but schools with solid outside shooting are always capable of pulling off an upset in early March.
Lafayette Leopards (7-11, 0-0 ATS)
In terms of quality, it’s obvious that the Patriot League isn't on par with the WCC or the Missouri Valley. This gives a trigger-happy team like Lafayette a reasonable chance to win the conference. The 7-11 Leopards are averaging 24.6 3-point attempts per game and 41.4 percent of their total points scored come from beyond the arc.
Detroit Titans (9-11, 6-10-1 ATS)
It has been an up-and-down year for the Titans and it’s fair to say that former McDonald's All-American Ray McCallum Jr. has not lived up to the hype. This Horizon League team has the talent but not the chemistry and they’ve been upset by much weaker teams. On their resume, however, are wins over Butler and St. John's, along with two impressive showings against Alabama and Mississippi State.
NBA draft watch
Damian Lillard, Weber State Wildcats
The Wildcats are still undefeated in the Big Sky and it doesn’t look like anyone is catching up to Lillard in the NCAA scoring race, with the senior guard averaging 25.5 points per game. Weber State is also on an impressive four-game ATS streak. Lillard is expected to go early in the second round but his stock could rise come March.
Games to watch
Wednesday, January 18 – Creighton at Missouri State
Averaging 82.7 points per game, the 16-2 (10-4 ATS) Bluejays are on an absolute tear and are arguably the top mid-major team in the nation. However, they do have one blemish on their record - a home loss to Missouri State back in December. The Bears head into this contest having lost two heartbreakers - a 61-60 road loss to Northern Iowa and an overtime loss to Evansville.
Saturday, January 21 – Old Dominion at VCU
This is a rematch of last year’s CAA title game, which Old Dominion won 70-65. Of course, very few remember that the Monarchs were the CAA champs after VCU earned an at-large bid and made a run to the Final Four last March. The makeup of the Rams is much different this year but they’re slowly progressing, winning 10 of their last 12.
Saturday, January 21 – South Dakota State at North Dakota State
Oral Roberts sits at the top of the Summit league, but the Jackrabbits and Bisons are two teams that are more than capable of winning the NCAA Tournament bid. South Dakota State has been living up to its nickname, playing an up-tempo game and averaging 79.3 points. North Dakota State is not far behind, averaging 74.9 points per game, and ranks fifth in the nation in field goal percentage. Jackrabbits PG Nate Wolters won’t enter the draft this year but he’s starting to show up on the radar of many pro scouts.
Sunday, January 22 – Wisconsin Milwaukee at Cleveland State
Although it won’t make up for the Packers losing, the Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers have quietly climbed to first place in the Horizon League. This is a tough matchup on Sunday afternoon, with a road trip to Cleveland State. Even without the services of Norris Cole this year, the Vikings are a respectable 15-4. With the NFL conference championship games bringing bettors to the books on Sunday, expect more action on this small-school matchup than normal.