Mid-Major Report: Predicting Tournament Seeds
By Nick Parsons
Covers.com
This year, the caliber of mid-major play is the best it’s ever been. However, that does not necessarily translate into more bids in the NCAA Tournament.
Remember the Big Dance, like the BCS, is first and foremost about money. The committee is most likely to select the 37th place team in the Big East (I do believe they have 50 teams now in that conference) over the third place team in the Missouri Valley Conference.
With that being said there are couple of teams that should be locks for the Dance even if they lose their Conference Tournaments.
Creighton
If anything, Creighton's recent back-to-back losses suggests that the MVC is tougher than most people think. This is important because other than an upset win over San Diego State, the Bluejays did not really play a tough non-conference slate. As long as they avoid a huge losing streak, they should be able to get in based on the reputation of the conference.
Projected Seed: No. 3 to No. 5
St Mary’s
Like Creighton, they haven’t played the best non-conference schedule and their 72-59 loss to Baylor back during the X-Mas holidays does them no favors. But over the years Gonzaga has raised the profile of the WCC which should ensure at least two teams make it to the NCAA Tournament
Projected Seed: No. 3 to No. 5
Murray State
Even if a Tennessee Tech or Tennessee State pulls off an upset in early March, the Racers and their exciting brand of play should get them into the Tournament. They have a key bracketbuster game against St Mary’s coming up, which will further increase the profile of this undefeated team.
Projected Seed: No. 4 to No. 7
Gonzaga
The Bulldogs are the second best team in the WCC and it has been 13 straight NCAA Tournaments for the kings of mid-major hoops. Last year the streak was in threat, but the Zags managed to win the WCC Tournament which sent St Mary’s to the NIT. The same fate probably won't happen to the Zags should they lose in the WCC Tournament as they have played one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the NCAA.
Projected Seed: No. 6 to No. 9
Wichita State
As mentioned above, the profile of the MVC should allow at least two teams to get into the NCAA Tournament. Also the 89-70 win over UNLV will carry more weight than is justified.
Projected Seed: No. 7 to No. 10
Harvard
There is no conference tournament in the Ivy League, but Yale and Penn only have one conference loss and stranger things have happened in college hoops. However, the fact that Harvard controls the world and their impressive non-conference success, make the Crimson a lock for the NCAA Tournament.
Projected Seed: 9 to 12
On The Bubble
VCU, Drexel, George Mason
Last year the committee looked like geniuses by putting VCU in the play-in game, making them the third team from the CAA. Shaka Smart of course led the 11th seeded Rams to the Final Four. This year committee might not be so kind. Unlike the MVC, parity with teams like Georgia State improving, probably diminishes the chances of multiple teams making the Tournament.
Cleveland State
It may be unjust, but Butler’s demise decreases the probability of the Horizon League putting two teams in the Tournament. Vanderbilt’s recent slide hurts as well, as that upset 71-58 win over Butler in the season opener carries less weight.
Middle Tennessee State
Having only one home game in their last five has hurt the 21-4 Blue Raiders. They lost to Vandy and Denver and barely squeaked by North Texas in a 68-66 win. The Sun Belt simply doesn’t have a solid enough reputation like the MVC or WCC, so it's all or nothing for MTSU in the Sun Belt tournament.
News and Notes
The theme of this Mid-Major Report is timely with the two biggest mid-major games this week involving aforementioned teams. St Mary’s plays Gonzaga on Thursday night, while Wichita State travels to Creighton on Saturday.
The OVC made some non-Murray State noise last week with Tennessee Tech’s Kevin Murphy averaging 35.0 ppg in games last week. The Eagles are the biggest threat to Murray State and were decent in 82-74 loss earlier holding the Racers to 37.7 percent shooting.
Over the weekend 121 points were scored in the Loyola-Maryland-St Peter’s game, extending the Greyhounds under streak to seven games. In the 17 Loyola-Maryland games in which totals have been posted, the over has only hit four times.