Mid-Major Report: Total Value in Small-Conference Shooting
By Nick Parsons
Welcome to your weekly dosage of mid-major college basketball info. Lines have become sharper in recent years, but there is still value to be had. Here are couple tidbits of info for bettors to be aware of.
Witness: Cleveland State
It’s a bit farfetched to say that Cleveland State has filled the LeBron void, but many mid-major experts have the 20-3 Vikings listed as the top small school in the nation. They suffered a bit of a setback earlier in January with two road losses to Butler and Valparaiso, but have a chance to redeem themselves at home this week against those same two teams.
Senior point guard Norris Cole has been a key player, averaging 20.1 ppg, 5.2 apg and 5.4 rpg. His most recent performance was against Detroit, where he had 18 points and 11 assists and held future-NBA guard Ray McCullum to 3-for-9 in shooting in an 81-69 victory.
Small ball
None of the Top-5 schools in 3-point shooting are from major conferences (Northern Arizona, Portland, Arkansas-Little Rock, South Dakota State, Denver). In fact, of the Top-25 teams from beyond the arc, only seven are from BCS conferences.
Part of the reason for this is that defenses are relatively weaker in smaller conferences and that more teams choose to play zone. Now what does this mean for bettors? Well, for the most part, the over will hit in those games. Of those Top-5 teams mentioned above, their record is 53-34 over/under (60.9 percent).
However, there are going to be inflated lines. Northern Arizona is shooting an exceptional 43.8 percent from 3-point land this year, but its last three games have gone under with an average posted total of 141.6 points.
Another thing to be aware of is that strong 3-point shooting teams have a good chance of pulling off upsets come tournament time. Last year, Cornell led the nation at 43.3 percent and managed to pull off first and second-round upsets over Temple and Wisconsin.
Overvalued: Davidson Wildcats
Stephen Curry hasn’t taken a shot for the Davidson since 2009 but in most games, this team continues to be listed as a heavy favorite. Last year, the Wildcats were rebuilding the team with several freshmen, but the public still continued to bet on them, covering just three times in 19 conference games.
Heading into this week, the Wildcats are riding a 2-9 ATS skid and they were favorites in nine of those 11 games. This doesn’t happen too often for a team that most publications projected to finish in the middle of table. There is a natural tendency in all of sports handicapping (not just mid-major hoops) to bet on familiar teams. In the world of mid-major hoops, programs like Gonzaga, Butler and Davidson continue to attract money, despite the fact that they aren’t the same Cinderella teams of old.
Undervalued: St Peter’s Peacocks
The Peacocks suffered two humiliating defeats against Iona 70-52, and Fairfield 70-43 in early Janaury. These two losses actually helped make them one of the better value bets this season. Since then, they are on a 5-1 ATS run in which they have beaten teams by an average of 17.8 points.
Most recently they were 1-point underdogs against Rider and ended up winning 80-60. A key reason for their success has been the steady improvement of forward Ryan Bacon and guard Wesley Jenkins.
NBA Draft Watch : Anatoly Bose, Nicholls State
Very few books will release lines for Nicholls State games, but Anatoly Bose is a name that cappers should be aware of when the Southland Conference tournament begins. The 6-foot-6 Australian forward almost left early for the NBA last season, but decided to stay for his senior year. He grabbed the attention of scouts in last year’s conference tournament loss to Sam Houston State in which he scored 40 of the Colonels’s 57 points. This season, he has seen steady improvement and is averaging 22.4 points per game.
Key Games
Thursday Feb. 3: Liberty at Coastal Carolina
The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have perhaps the most pretentious name in all of college hoops (it’s from Chaucer) but that’s not the only reason you should watch this critical Big South showdown. Liberty is 10-1 in conference play while Coastal Carolina is a perfect 11-0 and 20-2 overall. This will be a rematch of their earlier contest in which the Chanticleers won 70-67. Liberty was down by 10 points with 1 minute left, but nearly made a miracle comeback hitting three straight 3-pointers in the last 23 seconds.
Friday Feb. 4: Harvard at Princeton
Nerds! Nerds! Nerds! Yes, they are and their players will also most likely be our bosses in a few years. Regardless, we have a key Ivy League contest Friday night. Harvard is a solid team this year, having beat Colorado and Boston College, while Princeton is perfect at home. Remember that the Ivy League does not have a conference tournament and its automatic bid is based on conference record. So with both teams perfect in conference play, bettors can expected a surprisingly exciting contest from these two up-tempo teams.
Saturday Feb. 5: Old Dominion at George Mason
If both teams can win Wednesday, Old Dominion will be heading into this key CAA showdown on a four-game winning streak while George Mason will be on an eight-game run. They have already faced each other this season, with Old Dominion coming out on top 69-65. VCU is the Colonial leaders, but the Patriots and Monarchs are well with reach of the conference lead.