Mid-major report: Under-the-radar gold mines
By Nick Parsons
Covers.com
Nick Parsons shuns the big boys and searches for betting value among the mid-major conferences.
Harvard and Creighton are slowly joining the ranks of the Gonzaga's and Butler's of the world in terms of exposure. In this week's mid-major report, we take a quick look at quality teams that are still somewhat under the radar.
Middle Tennessee State
No one seemed to give the Blue Raiders any respect even after their 86-66 road win over UCLA. They shot 71.4 percent that day, so the common thinking was that MTSU would regress a bit.
That hasn’t been the case, as the Blue Raiders went on to cover their next give spreads and maintained their perfect 8-0 ATS record. What is more impressive, is that MTSU hasn't made their backers sweat, covering spreads by an average margin of 13.63 points.
As for their field-goal percentage, they did regress down to 52.8 percent, but that is still the second-highest in the nation.
Eastern Washington
Believe or not, the 26-point loss to Washington State is actually a good thing for backers. Prior to that contest, Eastern Washington had covered in five straight, including decent showings on the road against Oregon and Gonzaga. The blowout loss should somewhat still provide value in the Eagles’ games.
New head coach Jim Hayford had a .792 win percentage in 10 years at Division-III Whitworth and has decent talent to work with at EWU. One to watch is Collin Chiverton, who orginally signed with St. Mary's but then took the JuCo route. The 6-foot-6 swingman leads the team in scoring, is 22 for 49 from beyond the arc and has surpassed the 20-point mark three times this season.
Ohio
The Bobcats are 5-1 with that lone loss coming to Louisville. They stayed competitive with the No. 5 team in the nation losing just 59-54 as 16-point underdogs. They followed that performance with another impressive road showing, providing Marshall with its only loss of the season, beating the Herd 70-68 as 7-point underdogs.
Murray State
It’s odd to tag the Racers as “under the radar”, but with a 9-0 start against decent competition, they look fully focused on getting back to the NCAA Tournament.
Last year, there was a great deal of hype around the program after making it to the second round against eventual runner ups Butler in 2010. However, last year, Morehead State eliminated them in the OVC Tournament.
This year they are continuing their up-tempo offense and junior Isaiah Cannon has nearly doubled his previous career totals, averaging 20.3 points per game. Murray State is coming a huge 75-58 win over Dayton, where it was just a 3-point favorite. There’s a true test waiting for them against Memphis Sunday.
Youngstown State
Youngstown State played two tough road games to open up Horizon League play, beating Detroit 64-61 as a 9-point underdog and losing by just one point to Wright State, where it was a 3-point underdog.
Forward DuShawn Brooks was a key factor in both of those games, scoring 24 against Detroit and picking up 17 points against Wright State. Last year, he averaged just 6.0 ppg and prior to the Detroit game, he had failed to score in double digits
The Penguins have a challenging three-game, non-conference road stretch coming up against Buffalo, Toledo, and Akron, but clearly being away from home has not been a problem for YSU
Key Games
Harvard Crimson at Uconn Huskies – Dec. 8
Last year, the Huskies beat Harvard 81-52 and held them to 30 percent shooting. This year, however, they go up against a more experienced Crimson side that is coming off a huge tournament win in the Bahamas. The Huskies were also in that tournament but lost 68-63 to Central Florida. Harvard managed to beat UCF in the tournament finals 59-49.
Rider Broncs at Florida Gators – Dec. 9
For the regular hoops fan, there are better options. But for the handicapper, we have a 1-8 team who has failed to cover in its last six games and is giving up 81.4 ppg. To say that Rider, a preseason MAAC contender, is performing well below expectation is a huge understatement. However, it does have pro talent in former UVA man Jeff Jones and one can expect and incredibly high number for the Gators to cover.
Michigan State Spartans at Gonzaga Bulldogs – Dec. 10
It is cliche to put a Gonzaga game on our key games but it is justified in this situation. Last week on national TV, they destroyed Notre Dame by 20 points but that was then followed by an 82-75 loss against Illinois. The Bulldogs have three more tough games coming up in Michigan State, Arizona, and Butler, but have the benefit of all those games being at home (Arizona game is at Key Arena in Seattle).
Murray State Racers at Memphis Tigers – Dec. 11
All signs point to offense. Undefeated Murray State plays a high-paced game and is averaging 74.4 points per game. Memphis, however, ranks ninth in the nation at 84.3 points per game. As mentioned above, Sunday's contest will serve as proving point for the Racers and determine whether or not that perfect record is an accurate reflection of their talent.