Mid-Major Schools That Could Bust Your March Madness Bracket
By ADAM THOMPSON
The competition from filling out a NCAA Tournament bracket doesn’t really begin until an upset occurs.
While the Final Four is typically reserved for the sport’s superpowers, George Mason’s historic run in 2006 and Memphis’ time under John Calipari notwithstanding, schools from the non-BCS conferences have made a dent in brackets. And they’re likely to do so again this year.
In each of the last three tourneys, seven to eight mid-majors won at least one game and three to four have advanced to the Sweet 16.
Those Sweet 16 berths include Memphis, which was a highly-regarded powerhouse from lowly-regarded Conference USA. But it also included teams like Sothern Illinois, Western Kentucky and Davidson.
And recent first-round wins by teams like San Diego, Cleveland State and Winthrop prove they call it March Madness for a reason.
Your job, of course, is to find out which of those under-the-radar schools are most likely to have a large impact in March and leave a little less red ink on your bracket.
Those looking for one of those small-school “Bracket Busters” should start by scouting out these five teams.
Richmond Spiders (22-6, 15-9 ATS, 24 RPI)
Perhaps no off-the-radar small school is more feared this postseason than Richmond, which has proven all season it can hang with and beat the big boys.
The Spiders will be battle-tested for the NCAA. In non-conference play, they won at Mississippi State (63-62) and at then-No. 13 Florida (56-53) and beat Missouri (59-52). On February 16, Richmond vaulted into first place in the Atlantic 10 with a 71-54 win over No. 19 Temple.
Losses include defeats at VCU, at South Carolina and at Wake Forest.
Quick guard Kevin Anderson averages 17.5 points, 2.7 assists and two steals for the Spiders.
Richmond has only been to the tournament once since 1998 (2004, first-round loss to Wisconsin). But in six appearances from 1984-98, the Spiders won at least one game in four of them and twice advanced to the Sweet 16.
Northern Iowa Panthers (24-4, 17-10 ATS, 22 RPI)
Northern Iowa beat Boston College, Iowa State, Iowa and Siena as part of a 15-game winning streak that lasted until January 19. The Panthers broke the school record for wins in a season by beating small-school NCAA hopeful Old Dominion 71-62 in a Bracket Buster matchup last Friday.
Northern Iowa is 14-3 and holds a commanding lead in the Missouri Valley Conference. However, the Panthers, ranked No. 25 in this week’s AP poll, did not help their cause with a stunning loss to last-place Evansville Monday.
Unlike some of the other teams on the list, Northern Iowa doesn’t have one superstar but everybody can do something. Post player Adam Koch is the leading scorer (12.3 ppg).But four players average 9.9 points or more, three players average 4.5 rebounds or more and seven players average at least one assist per game.
The Panthers have been to the NCAA four times since 2004. Oddly, in those four first-round games against Purdue (09), Georgetown (06), Wisconsin (05) and Georgia Tech (04), they lost each one by five points.
Utah State Aggies (22-6, 15-9 ATS, 32 RPI)
No team is on more of a roll than the Aggies, winners of their last 12 games. The NCAA committee likes teams that finish strong.
Here’s one caveat: Outside of a handful of challenging games in the WAC, Utah St. didn’t exactly go out and find the toughest competition in the world. However, in the team’s only two marquee games of the season, the Aggies came out on top of BYU 71-61 back on December 2 and knocked off Wichita State 68-58 in a Bracket Buster game this past Saturday.
Junior forward Tai Wesley averages 13.2 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.3 rebounds per contest.
Utah State lost by just one point to Marquette in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament last year. But it probably can’t afford another regular season loss and expect to get into the NCAA with an at-large bid this year.
Since 2000, the Aggies have been to the Big Dance six times, but along with have been paired up with Washington, Arizona, Kansas, Ohio State and Connecticut in the opening rounds. They did beat the Buckeyes in 2001 before falling to UCLA.
St. Mary's Gaels (22-5, 16-9 ATS, 48 RPI)
The Gaels have established themselves as the top rival to Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference. This season was no exception, but the Bulldogs (22-5) got the best of them in both games.
St. Mary’s played a decent non-conference schedule and did beat a once-highly thought of Oregon team 81-76. It nearly got a marquee victory, losing 72-70 to Vanderbilt. And it did win 68-63 at Utah State - another small-school bubble team.
St. Mary’s may have to win out this year to secure a NCAA berth. But if it does, teams may struggle with its size and balanced scoring.
Omar Samhan is a 6-foot-11 small-school beast, averaging 21.1 ppg, 11.2 rpg and 2.9 blocks. But the Gaels also have five players averaging double-figure scoring.
UTEP Miners (20-5, 11-10 ATS, 50 RPI)
The Miners are relevant again for the first time in a long time. They’ve won 10 in a row and on Feb. 22, vaulted into the Top 25 for the first time in 18 years.
Texas-El Paso beat Memphis in the only regular season meeting between the two and, at 11-1, holds a one-game lead over the Tigers in Conference USA.
The Miners are streaking, which means they’re much better now than they were back in November and December, which also means the big non-conference games they had mostly resulted in losses.
Texas-El Paso did knock off Oklahoma 89-74 on December 21, but lost the big ones at No. 20 Ole Miss (91-81), at No. 20 Texas Tech (86-78) and to No. 25 BYU (83-77). Wins at Memphis and at No. 25 UAB will add to the resume, but a Conference USA tournament title may still be needed to get into the show.
Guard Randy Culpepper is a playmaker, averaging 18 ppg. He had 29 points in the Miners 78-70 win at Tulsa on February 20.