Mid-Majors to Watch - Part I
By Bruce Marshall
We’re getting used to mid-majors making a splash in college hoops. Butler’s run to the title game last April was the second Final Four appearance by a mid-major in the past four years, with George Mason doing the same in 2006. And even if we don’t see another make a similar deep foray into this season’s Big Dance, we suspect several mid-majors are going to make some noise in March. Following is the first of a two-part series in which we’ll preview a handful of mid-majors that we’re going to be watching closely over the next few months.
Richmond... The Spiders made it all of the way to the Big Dance last season for the first time since the Jerry Wainwright era. And HC Chris Mooney’s modified-Princeton offense figures to cause the same headaches for coaches from the Atlantic 10 and elsewhere this campaign. A chunk of last season’s dynamic 3-G offense, David Gonzalvez and Ryan Butler, has graduated, but backcourt returnee Kevin Anderson is the reigning Atlantic 10 Player of the Year, and in line to become the first conference player to win the award in back-to-back campaigns since Xavier’s David West a decade ago. Meanwhile, the frontcourt is anchored by senior PFs Justin Harper and Dan Geriot, who has lost 30 pounds from a year ago and now will be playing at the same weight as he was when earning all A-10 honors as a sophomore. Overall, Mooney welcomes back 11 scholarship players, so depth doesn’t figure to be an issue, augmented by an impactful freshman class led by explosive G Cedric Lindsay, already making a splash in the early going. Indeed, the Spiders spun their web quite effectively in dominating home wins over The Citadel and William & Mary to begin the season, so the warnings are already being heard around the A-10.
LaSalle... Neighboring Temple is getting a lot of the local attention in the A-10, and for good reason, but the Explorers are going to be the focus of NBA scouts who will be descending upon Tom Gola Arena to check out 6'10 soph C Aaric Murray, one of the few quality "bigs" in the A-10 and a potential dominator on the blocks whose defensive acumen has made him an intriguing topic among pro personnel scouts. But what has piqued the interest of many regional observers is a potentially-explosive backcourt that could evolve into something special by the time conference play commences. The ingredients appear to be in place, especially once a pair of touted true frosh Gs, Tyreek Duren (according to HC John Giannini "a very special point guard,") and Sam Mills, become acclimated to the rigors of big-time college competition. The new-look backcourt also consists of Rutgers transfer Earl Pettis, and sr. Ruben Guillandeaux, granted an extra hardship year by the NCAA after missing almost all of 2009-10 with a stress fracture in his foot. The presence of frosh Duren and Mills means that the versatile 6'6 Guillandeaux probably won’t have to worry about filling in minutes at the point, although he is capable if needed. As long as the roster doesn’t endure the spate of injuries that decimated it a year ago, and the new-look backcourt has some time to simmer, LaSalle could emerge as a sleeper in the A-10, and signaled it is a team to reckon with when pushing Baylor to the limit earlier this week in Waco as part of the ESPN-TV marathon.
Virginia Commonwealth... A knee-jerk reaction might be to discount the Rams after the graduation of 6'11 force Larry Sanders, a rare inside dominator in the CAA and a first-round draft choice of the Milwaukee Bucks who also happened to pace VCU to postseason glory last spring when the Richmond bunch won the CBI championship. But don’t feel sorry for HC Shaka Smart, who welcomes back almost everyone else from last year’s 27-9 contingent. Remember, skeptics were wondering how the Rams were going to cope last season in the wake of do-everything G Eric Maynor’s graduation, but Joey Rodriguez stepped into the breach with aplomb, expertly running the offense and anchoring a lock-down defense on the perimeter. Smart remains knee-deep in guards, with electrifying 6'6 Bradford Burgess, who wowed ‘em on several occasions last season, hinting at a breakout campaign when erupting for 25 points in a recent dominating win at Wake Forest. Although replacing Sanders’ defensive presence in the paint might be difficult, VCU still has a presence on the blocks in 6'9 sr. Jamie Skeen, a former Wake Forest transfer who began to finally get comfy late last season and flourished in the CBI decider vs. Saint Louis when Sanders encountered foul trouble. Some CAA observers suspect that Skeen, without having to share room on the blocks with Sanders, could emerge as the dominant post player in the loop, especially if 6'8 juco and former Colorado transfer Toby Veal effectively fills the enforcer role that Skeen won’t have to worry about this winter. Early indicators (three lopsided wins, including that rout of Wake Forest) signal that VCU means business again this campaign.
George Mason... We seem to mention GMU every season when it comes to mid-majors to watch, and why not, as shrewd HC Jim Larranaga has kept the Patriots relevant since that magical Final Four run in 2006. Some believe this could be Larranaga’s best team since, although GMU is going to have to display a bit more basketball smarts than a year ago if it wants to return to the Big Dance. Some regional observers have noticed a different composition in the post-Final Four GMU recruiting classes that have consisted of more highly-regarded prep and juco standouts who might not have the same sort of hardscrabble mindset that Larranaga’s previous recruiting classes all seemed to possess. Regardless, the Patriot fans are excited about the prospects of the versatile 6'6 jr. Ryan Pearson, who has hinted at stardom in the past two seasons with his ability to take over a contest and has reportedly added a better stroke from beyond the arc to his offensive repertoire. Pearson leads a young but experienced lineup that despite returning all five starters only includes two seniors on the roster. Another versatile sort and one of the two seniors is 6'4 G Cam Long, with the ability to run the show from the point or play in the post if needed, as well as shoot from behind the arc, where jr. G Andre Cornelius (43% triples LY) is the resident deadeye. Rugged and functional 6'8 jr. Mike Morrison can also be a force in a smaller-sized league such as the CAA, but will have to develop a better touch from the FT line or once again invite "Hack-a-Shaq" tactics from opponents who do not fear Morrison (only q 48% FT shooter last year) from the charity stripe. Last week’s handy 66-53 opening win over Harvard, however, has some of the Fairfax faithful excited after the Patriots played under control for the entire 40 minutes. And Larranaga again has the depth necessary to employ his pet "scramble" defense when needed.
Cleveland State... While all of the attention in the Horizon League focuses upon Butler after its magic carpet ride last March, some Midwest observers are casting a wary eye toward HC Gary Waters’ Vikings, who could be ready to contend again (remember, they beat Butler at Hinkle Fieldhouse to win the 2009 Horizon Tourney before KOing Wake Forest in a first-round NCAA matchup) after slipping a bit last season. In a league such as the Horizon, Waters can get away with a 4-G lineup, especially with sr. G Norris Cole (16.3 ppg) running the engine room. Although it has taken Cole, a shoot-first guard, some time to adjust to his playmaker role, he still doled out 147 assists a year ago. Complementary perimeter mates such jr. Jeremy Montgomery (12.8 ppg), more of an effective slasher, and jr. Trevon Harmon (10.5 ppg), more suited to the transition game, add further dimensions to the CSU package. Waters, however, knows that he needs more production in the paint from 6'9 jr. Aaron Pogue, who could be an effective goalie on the stop end if he can keep out of foul trouble (he was disqualified nine times last season). Indeed, the progress of Pogue or perhaps 6'9 Canadian import Ludovic Ndaye will be important if CSU is to improve its rebounding numbers (-4 boards pg last year) and is to be serious about challenging Butler for Horizon honors. Although that scintillating Vikings backcourt (which has already keyed four wins to kick off the season last week) will at least make CSU plenty fun to watch.
Miami-Ohio... Don’t discount the RedHawks simply because they ran into the Duke buzzsaw in the first week of the season. MAC observers believe veteran HC Charlie Coles has assembled the pieces to eventually build another contender, although the Duke setback is probably going to be one of several in another typically-brutal Miami pre-league slate that also features San Diego State, Ohio State, Xavier, Dayton, Cincinnati, and Kansas. That sort of early-season meatgrinder, however, has often paid dividends for Coles in league play, and by the time MAC competition commences, either true frosh Quinten Rollins or juco PG Chris McHenry will have hopefully established themselves as Coles’ QBs on the hardwood and filled the shoes of the graduated Kenny Hayes. Coles’ veteran frontline has a familiar look with rugged returning starter Julian Mavunga and sixth-man deluxe Nick Winbush, who now slides into a starting role, while explosive swingman Antonio Ballard plays bigger than his listed 6'4 height. They should constitute one of the MAC’s best forecourts. The keys to contention in the MAC and potential entry into the postseason, however, remain the new PGs, and how quickly they can adapt to the Coles system of methodical offense and pressurized defense.
San Diego State... Looking for this year’s Butler? Why not the Aztecs, who have had a taste of March Madness after winning the Mountain West Tournament last March and qualifying for the Big Dance, and with almost everybody back from last year’s breakthrough campaign. This is the sort of lineup HC Steve Fisher used to feature in his best days at Michigan, with relentless athleticism on the frontline featuring 6'7 soph star Kawhi Leonard, who appears destined to be an NBA first-round choice whenever he decides to make the jump. Indeed, it’s doubtful any foe in the Mountain West can deal with the Aztecs’ athletes in the paint, especially if explosive 6'8 sr. Billy White can shake the nagging knee and hand injuries that have bothered him over the past two seasons (his 30-point explosion on Nov. 16 at Gonzaga is a pretty good indicator that things are looking good), while 6'9 sr. Malcolm Thomas is the resident intimidator. Meanwhile, sr. G D.J. Gay emerged as an effective floor leader at the point last season, while local product and Santa Clara transfer James Rahon (who hit both of his triples in the Gonzaga win) provides Kyle Korver-like electricity off the bench with his ability to spot-up and fire accurately beyond the arc. Given the veteran components on the roster, next-level sorts such as Leonard and White, an important addition such as Rahon, and the fact Fisher has won an NCAA title before make the Aztecs’ case perhaps the most compelling of all the Butler wannabes this term.
Loyola-Marymount... Looking for some entertainment? Then check out LMU HC Max Good, who is, shall we say, rather animated on the sidelines and even better with his post-game quips. But the high-voltage Good got LMU to believe in itself last season as the Lions emerged from the dark days of the Rodney Tention-Billy Bayno fiasco by improving 12 wins during a campaign in which the LMU fought through injuries and scored a handful of resounding upset wins, including Notre Dame, Southern Cal, and home at the Gersten pavilion against WCC power Gonzaga. The Lions also made the postseason for the first time since the ill-fated Hank gathers/Bo Kimble 1990 team, qualifying for the Collegeinsiders.com Tourney along the way. Now, some believe the Lions could supplant Saint Mary’s as the Zags’ most-formidable conference challenger. The firepower looks in place, especially with explosive 6'8 former Oregon transfer Drew Viney (16.7 ppg) and electric 6'4 sr. G Vernon Teel (15.4 ppg) a formidable 1-2. Another frontline transfer, ex-Seton Hall PF Larry Davis, added presence in the paint a year ago, although the Lions were not as conscientious as they should have been, either on the boards or on defense (especially perimeter defense). Some WCC scouts wonder if the latter is already rearing its ugly head after LMU blew a late 8-point lead at Bradley Nov. 17, but the fact the Lions’ lineup has scorers in every position means that LMU will probably look really "good" (no pun intended) on enough occasions this season to make it back to the postseason.
Mid-Majors to Watch, Part II
By Bruce Marshall
With the college season well underway, we’ve had a chance to identify some more interesting-looking mid-majors over the past week. Following is another look at some of those "mid-majors to watch" this season.
American... Looking for a real sleeper? Try American U, tucked into the northwest corner of D.C. and adjacent to NBC’s Washington headquarters, which means some of the Eagles might get lucky enough to get an occasional glimpse of locals Chris Matthews, Pat Buchanan, or Norah O’Donnell (now we’re talking!) on their way to and from class or practice. Last year was a reloading situation after a juco-centric team made a pair of Big Dance appearances. Now, HC Jeff Jones’ program has become a haven of sorts for transfers, and will add a couple of 6'5 swingmen from SEC programs, Troy Brewer (via Georgia and eligible immediately) and Charles Hinkle (ex-Vandy and eligible mid-December) to go along with former George Mason 6'9 F Vlad Moldoveanu (18.1 ppg LY), whose presence after becoming eligible midway last season fueled the Eagles to a strong finish. Moldoveanu’s ability to drift to the perimeter will also open up space for 6'8 PF Stephen Lumpkins (13 PPG & 8.5 rpg LY), more of a traditional post threat, on the blocks. As for Brewer, he’s already making an impact, hitting 7 triples in a recent 66-54 win over local rival Howard. When Hinkle becomes eligible in mid-December, the Eagles will have the most-menacing lineup in the Patriot. American started 5-0 vs. a rather soft early slate, but things will get interesting in December with games against West Virginia, Northwestern, Florida, and Pitt, the type of encounters that could come in handy confidence-wise if the Eagles enter the Big Dance as sleeper-deluxe next March.
Boise State... New HC Leon Rice arrives from Mark Few’s Gonzaga staff and immediately inherits a veteran roster stocked with seven seniors. And there’s going to be an adjustment phase as Rice installs a Zag-like uptempo offense complete with various different schemes in halfcourt sets. But already a couple of the seniors, La’Shard Anderson and F Reggie Arnold, seem to be adapting quite effortlessly, each bettering 18 ppg in the early going and emerging as the sort of go-to threats Rice wasn’t sure he had after the graduation of last year’s leading scorer Iko Okoye. Boise’s lack of real size should not be too much of a handicap in the WAC, which isn’t an especially big league, but Rice will still be looking for improvements on the defensive end after the Broncos allowed 47% from the floor a year ago. Rice should be encouraged, however, about improved three-point shooting in the early going after the Broncos hit only 33% from beyond the arc last season. It’s helped Boise break to a 3-0 start.
Loyola-Chicago... Let’s not get too carried away and start making comparisons to George Ireland’s 1962-63 NCAA champion Ramblers, but Loyola is definitely the early surprise package of the Horizon League after its unexpected 6-0 break from the gate, its best start in 31 years. The Ramblers broke a similarly-quick 11-2 gate a year ago, but regional observers suggest respected HC Jim Whitesell’s current edition might have a bit more staying power. Getting an extra year of eligibility out of oft-injured 6'7 sr. PF Andy Polka adds a rugged and necessary dimension to the frontline; Polka’s injury history means that Whitesell will likely be watching the Wisconsin native’s minutes very closely, although Polka is leading the Ramblers in rebounding at 7.9 pg in the early going. Polka’s availability also removes some of the inside burden from 6'8 soph Ben Averkamp, who displayed considerable defensive prowess as a frosh when he ranked second in blocked shots in the Horizon. But what Chicagoland observers like is the plethora of scoring options at Whitesell’s disposal, as almost all of the Rambler lineup (which returns all of its starters from a year ago) has taken a turn as the leading scorer. Weapons to watch include 6'6 swingman Jordan Hicks, who had several breakout moments as a frosh but labored with Achilles tendon problems last season, 6'4 G Geoff McCammon, and 6'8 F Walt Gibler, all with the ability to float outside and hit the triple along with sharpshooting 6'4 sr. Terrance Hill, who was converting an astounding 79% beyond the arc through the first six games. Indeed, of the regulars, only Averkamp and Polka don’t shoot 3s. Big perimeter threats such as Hicks and McCammon have the ability to cause matchup problems, and if the Ramblers keep getting the sort of balanced scoring they’ve displayed in the early going (five averaging double digits), they could be a real sleeper in the Horizon.
Massachusetts... Eventually, we’ll find out how good the Minutemen really are when combative A-10 play commences. For the moment, however, UMass is getting the Amherst locals excited after a quick 4-0 break from the gate including a pair of impressive wins in the local Springfield Tip-Off Classic. Indeed, there’s a chance the Minutemen could hit conference play undefeated in January, with the two most challenging non-conference affairs in December vs. Boston College and Seton Hall both appearing very winnable. Derek Kellogg’s side is getting lots of scoring balance in the early going led by explosive G Anthony Gurley (21 ppg first 4), who declared for last June’s NBA Draft but eventually pulled his name from the list, and now one of four Minutemen scoring DDs. Kellogg’s team is fairly young, however, and will be relying upon several underclassmen, although early indicators are that sophs Javorn Ferrell and Freddie Riley (both 13.5 ppg thus far) will be high-energy sparkplugs off the bench. Ferrell has looked especially explosive, scoring 12 points in a condensed period of time to lead a blitz of TCU Nov. 22. A-10 sources report that Kellogg also apparently has the proper depth to employ the sort of uptempo offense and pressurized defense that have marked his recent Minutemen teams.
Old Dominion... We hope nobody forgot about the Monarchs just because rugged and functional C Gerald Lee graduated. Four other starters return from Blaine Taylor’s 27-9 team that won the CAA and KO’d Notre Dame in the first round of the Big Dance before narrowly succumbing to Baylor in the second round. Recently, ODU was unable to replicate last season’s mid-December upset over Georgetown when losing by 3 to the Hoyas in the opener, but quickly re-established its prowess by winning the Paradise Jam in the Virgin Islands, dispatching Clemson and Xavier en route. Taylor’s team developed a different personality last season, with a sharp-shooting and diversified offensive look that differed from past OSU contenders that mostly bludgeoned teams with various defensive looks and relentless board work. But the Monarchs can still get physical if needed with bruising 6'9 Frank Hassell on the blocks, but Taylor has some other un-ODU-like weapons in the mix, including 6'5 PG Kent Bazemore, a matchup nightmare for opponents whose length on the perimeter also makes him one of the premier stoppers in CAA. Meanwhile, 6'1 sr. G Darius James is a steadying force in the backcourt. Other interchangeable parts include 6'5 Ben Finney and 6'8 Keyon Carter, each of whom can put the ball on the floor if needed to get to the hoop. The culture of winning is pervasive at ODU, which has now qualified for the postseason six straight times, reaching the Big Dance in three of those years, and should continue through to March.
Rider... We particularly enjoy those Friday night ESPN-2 or ESPN-U games featuring Metro-Atlantic entries. But the MAAC has been more than a curiosity over the past few years, especially Siena, which made considerable noise in recent Big Dances. Graduation and the departure of HC Fran McCaffery to Iowa, however, likely brings the Saints back to the pack in 2010-11, where the new "Monster of Metro-Atlantic" could be Lawrenceville, NJ-based Rider. Although the Broncs lost All-MAAC G Ryan Thompson to graduation, Rider returns four other starters (and seven of its top eight scorers overall), including a potent inside-outside combo featuring seniors G Justin Robinson and F Mike Ringgold, plus jr. swingman Novar Gadson, who along with the no-nonsense Ringgold adds a Philly flavor to the frontline. Moreover, 6'8 F Brandon Penn gives Rider a face-up threat from the 4 spot. Another interesting addition is 6'5 freshman wing Anthony Myles, the highest-rated prep ever signed by the Broncs. All of the above were clicking in the recent Springfield Tip-Off, where Rider was the talk of the tourney when sweeping past representative Southern Cal, TCU, and Loyola-Marymount squads, all by double-digit margins. The three-pronged attack of Robinson, Ringgold, and Gadson all hit better than 50% beyond the arc in the early going, suggesting that Rider will have the ability to stretch defenses this season. This looks like it could be the team to beat in the MAAC.
San Jose State... For several years, WAC observers have raved about how much San Jose HC George Nessman has been able to squeeze out of talent and depth-shy lineups. The Spartans, however, might not be so talent and depth-shy this season, especially with one of the nation’s top scorers, former Washington transfer Adrian Oliver, in the fold. The explosive 6'4 G tallied 22.5 ppg a year ago and has started off even better this season, netting 26 ppg as the Spartans won their first three games, including a win at Pac-10 Oregon. Oliver certainly isn’t shy about shooting (he’s hoisted it almost 21 times pg) and keys a dangerous perimeter-oriented attack also featuring fellow sr. G Justin Graham, who has learned to work well off of Oliver, plus ballyhooed frosh G Keith Shamburger, expected to be one of the WAC’s top newcomers and already scoring 11 ppg. The WAC is not an especially big league so it shouldn’t hurt SJSU too much to have no players taller than 6'8, although Nessman will still need juco frontliner Will Carter (10.7 ppg & 10 rpg in early going) to establish a presence on the blocks.
UCF... New Golden Knight HC Donnie Jones made his mark at Marshall by employing an uptempo attack that tallied nearly 80 ppg last season. UCF didn’t seem built to operate in a similar manner but has nonetheless adapted to the Jones style and exploded from the blocks with a 4-0 mark. Jones inherited a youthful yet veteran bunch that returns all five starters and its top eight scorers from a year ago when G Marcus Jordan (Michael’s son) and F Keith Clanton both flashed considerable upside as frosh. Now they’re combining to tally 34 ppg in the early going. A recent 65-59 win at nearby South Florida could be the confidence boost the Golden Knights need to charge through a rather-tame non-conference schedule and have a ful head of steam by the time conference play begins. Remember, Jones’ Thundering Herd teams didn’t take long to adapt to Jones’ fast-paced preference.
Wichita State...The Shockers aren’t going to sneak up anybody, picked by most to win the Missouri Valley while returning four starters from last year’s 25-win NIT team. Wichita is big and experienced, with four inside players back from last season (including emerging 7-footer Garrett Stutz), but it’s the backcourt that is leading the charge at the outset with Gs David Kyles (who missed part of last season with a broken hand but hitting 54% of his triples in the early going this season) and Toure’ Murry (also hitting better than 50% beyond the arc in the early going). Another G, juco Joe Ragland, is lending a helping hand at the point. Meanwhile, Stutz and 6'8 PF D.T. Gurley make it difficult for foes to double-team one or the other on the blocks. The ol’ Roundhouse figures to be rocking this winter.