Missouri Valley Early Returns
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
The Missouri Valley finished sixth in the RPI in the 2006-07 season and received multiple NCAA tournament bids for a ninth consecutive season but the strength of the conference on the national landscape has fizzled a bit since then. That year Southern Illinois was a sweet 16 team but it has been downhill since. In the 2008 tournament Drake was the lone representative in the big dance, awarded a #5 seed but knocked out in an epic overtime game with Western Kentucky. In the 2010 tournament Northern Iowa grabbed headlines by beating Kansas but last year was the fourth straight season that the Valley was a one-bid conference as tournament winner Indiana State was one-and-done as a #14 seed. Wichita State did go on to win the NIT however so there is optimism that the Valley will make a bit more noise this year. Here is a look at each team and some signs from the early season results.
Creighton (6-0): The Bluejays are among the favorites in the conference this year and already have cracked the top 25. Creighton has biggest home arena in the league and has been a successful program in recent years but they have not made the NCAA Tournament since 2007 and finished tied for fourth in the conference standings last year. Three starters return on this year’s team for Coach McDermott’s second season and his son Doug McDermott has been the leading scorer so far posting nearly 24 points per game. Creighton has played a few challenging games with wins at UAB and at San Diego State as well as a neutral site win at Iowa. Senior Antoine Young will be the other top player for the Bluejays and he should be one of the better point guards in the conference. A couple of big non-conference tests remain with games against Nebraska, St. Joseph’s, Tulsa, and Northwestern before the conference season and Creighton probably needs to win all of those to be in at-large candidacy consideration. Creighton’s home court is among the toughest in the league but this is a team that slipped in several games as favorites and can be overwhelmed if the shots are not falling. Creighton is the lone undefeated team left in the conference and they are the leading contender to put the Valley back in the national consciousness.
Wichita State (3-2): The NIT championship last season brought great optimism into the 2011-12 season for the Shockers but it has been a rocky start to the year. In the Puerto Rico tournament Wichita State went just 1-2 but the losses came against quality teams. Alabama avenged a loss from the NIT Final from last year and Temple needed overtime to beat Wichita State. In the big picture the losses should not be too damaging but it would be nice to have some quality non-conference wins on the resume. Wichita State gets to play UNLV and Utah State in early December so they will have that opportunity. Last season Wichita State went 14-4 in conference play but a hot Indiana State team would win the conference tournament and steal the automatic bid. Wichita State nearly beat eventual national champion Connecticut last year so this was a team that could play with anyone but two starters are gone from that team. Toure’ Murry will be a conference player of the year candidate even though he will not post huge scoring numbers, he is a very tough match-up as a 6’5” guard. Five seniors are playing significant minutes for this team as this is one of the most experienced teams in the conference. Ultimately the failure to get a big non-conference win could hurt the postseason chances for this team again as a similar great conference season may be just short of a bid yet again. The early season conference slate is favorable but this is a team that could fade in February.
Indiana State (6-1): The Sycamores rode a hot streak late in the year in Coach Lansing’s first season all the way to the NCAA tournament after a string of upsets in the conference tournament. Indiana State was quickly eliminated by Syracuse but Jake Odum made name for himself and the depth and balance on this team makes them a contender. The 6-1 start so far this season is not filled with quality however. Respectable wins against Texas Tech and Fairfield were earned in the Orlando tournament and the lone loss came in a very tight game with Minnesota. Tough road games at Boise State and at Vanderbilt in the upcoming weeks will be measuring sticks for the program and this was a team that snuck up on a lot of people last year going 12-6 in conference play despite being projected as a last place team. Four starters return but this will again be a team that plays ten regularly and likely won’t have many players averaging double-digits. This is a good 3-point shooting team and a good free throw shooting team so they will always be a threat and so far the Sycamores are allowing just 61 points per game.
Northern Iowa (6-1): The Panthers made back-to-back NCAA tournament appearances in 2009 and 2010 but fell back a step last year. Three starters return and this is a veteran squad though Johnny Moran is the lone senior. Anthony James and Jake Koch are consistent contributors and there are a handful of returning players that have some experience, now playing in expanded roles. This is a bit of a wait-and-see team but the early results are promising. Already Northern Iowa has wins over Old Dominion, Rice, Providence, and Iowa State. The Panthers lost badly to St. Mary’s but that was a tough early season road game on the west coast, three days after playing on the east coast. In all Northern Iowa has built a strong enough resume to be taken very seriously in league play as the defense is allowing just 56 points per game. Rebounding looks like a bit of a weakness for this squad in some match-ups but it is hard to see this team not improving on last year’s 10-8 record in conference play based on the early results.
Drake (4-3): Mark Phelps inherited a team coming off one of the best seasons in school history and he has not been able to share that success, going 44-53 in three years including just 13-18 last year. This is a critical year as the Bulldogs have four returning starters including star sophomore Rayvonte Rice coming off a great freshman season. Injuries have taken a toll as Center Seth VanDeest unfortunately is not available after surgery this summer but he could provide a big boost if he is able to return late in the year. Jordan Clarke is also out of action as the frontcourt is thin for the Bulldogs at the moment. Drake opened the season 2-0 including a great win over Iowa State but since has lost three of the last five games. The losses have come against solid competition, losing by four to Ole Miss and by eight to Virginia, but last week’s 44-point loss to Boise State will be a big negative mark on the resume. Drake will have to get it done in the conference season with few remaining non-conference games of note and early season road games against Missouri State and Creighton will set the tone for the year. If Drake gets healthy they could be a late season sleeper but right now the Bulldogs look like a middle-of-the-pack team.
Evansville (3-2): The Purple Aces opened up a new home arena this season and they did so with a bang, beating national finalist Butler in overtime. At the time it looked like a great win but Butler has faded since and Evansville has also dropped two games, losing to Indiana at home and at Illinois-Chicago. Evansville was a .500 team last season both overall and in conference play, a big improvement after going 3-15 in league play the previous year. Taking another step forward will be difficult given the number of quality teams in the conference. Three starters are back led by junior guard Colt Ryan who leads most of the preseason all-conference teams. Evansville has several capable guards and small forwards but a true inside presence is lacking as forward Kenny Harris is likely to be the top rebounder and insider scorer even at 6’6” unless Lithuanian project Rokas Cesnulevicius develops quickly. This should be one of the weaker defensive teams in the conference, already allowing 72 points per game with vulnerability to the 3-point shot. The Aces will likely live and die by the 3-point line and in the new home environment they will be a threat for upsets but consistent winning is not likely.
Missouri State (4-1): A lot of people have written off Missouri State as the regular season champion Bears were 15-3 last season but have a new coach in Paul Lusk and only one returning starters. Former coach Cuonzo Martin took the Tennessee job but he did leave Lusk with Kyle Weems who was one of the best players in the conference last season. In the early going Weems has been well supported by center Caleb Patterson who has nearly tripled his scoring from last year and so far it looks like the drop off for this team may not be that severe. Missouri State just lost its first game, a tight game at Oral Roberts but the resume already has some solid wins, winning at Nevada and at Arkansas State as well as beating Tulsa at home. Big games coming up against New Mexico and Oklahoma State should tell whether or not this team is ready to contend again. Defense has been the focus and through five games the Bears have surrendered less than 54 points per game, holding opponents to 34 percent shooting. There could be some scoring droughts for this team and another 15-3 season is unlikely but this team could surpass some of the preseason expectations.
Southern Illinois (1-3): Former Missouri Valley powerhouse Southern Illinois has gone through a few tough seasons, including going just 5-13 in conference play last year. Coach Chris Lowery was a hot shot on the coaching carousel rumors after an outstanding start to his career with three NCAA tournament appearances but the last four years have been marginal and he may be approaching a hot seat. Forward Mamadou Seck is the lone returning starter on the team and he has led the way in the early going but it has been a tough 1-3 start, including a stunning opening loss to Ohio Dominican. Losses to St. Louis and Nebraska can be forgiven but there are some tough games ahead on the schedule and the lone win has come against Chicago State. Even with a marginal opening slate Southern Illinois is scoring just 58 points per game and this is a poor shooting team overall as few points are coming on the perimeter. Freshmen are going to contribute for the Salukis with Dantiel Daniels and Treg Setty playing big roles already so this is a team that could play better later in the season after some early road bumps.
Bradley (3-3): After a 3-0 start to the season Bradley has lost three in a row, falling to Wofford at home and then dropping both games in a Chicago tournament. The Braves were 4-14 in the conference last season and Geno Ford is in his first year and this is a program that has good support and can be more competitive. Two starters are back in action led by Taylor Brown who returns after missing last season and guard Dyricus Simms-Edwards who will run the offense. A big blow already occurred as senior center Will Egolf is injured and will miss the season. There are some intriguing young players on the roster led by Shayok Shayok, a Canadian with a lot of potential. Sophomore Walt Lemon provides quickness and excellent ball handling and he has grown into his starting role. Overall depth is an issue on this team and the scoring has been limited and streaky so far this season. There are some big tests up coming on the non-conference schedule and unfortunately a similar season to last year’s 12-20 campaign may be the most likely scenario.
Illinois State (5-2): The Redbirds were one of the better teams in the conference just a few years ago but slipped to 4-14 last year. The 5-2 start includes a win over Rutgers and not much else but Illinois State lost by just four to Illinois in a solid showing. This team lost a lot of close games last year as Coach Jankovich had by far his worst season and this will be a challenging turnaround season. Guard play is a question mark with five new guards to flank point guard Anthony Cousin, who is not a great scoring option. There is experience with four forwards that played solid minutes last year and there are early signs that the point production will be improved. Statistically the numbers are excellent so far this season but the schedule has been very light. The Redbirds are probably still a year away but this is a team that can compete in most match-ups and will occasionally show some of the promise that could develop into a winning team in the years to come.