Lee Kostroski
7* Golden State vs. San Antonio UNDER 213
We see great value in the UNDER selection in tonight’s San Antonio-Golden State match-up. Tonight begins an eight game road trip for the Spurs, their longest road trip of the season, and tonight is also the first of back to back road games. Veteran coach Gregg Popovich has been around long enough to know that these road trips take their toll on the players; so to prevent fatigue, expect the Spurs to use a deep bench tonight. The Spurs have finished UNDER the total in 8 of 10 games this season when playing on the first night of a back-to-back games. With a big game on deck tomorrow night @Denver, we expect a low-scoring effort tonight from the Spurs.
The Warriors are typically viewed as one of the best offensive teams in the NBA, and rightfully so, after scoring an average of 111 points per game last season and finishing with a 48-34 record. This season, their numbers are way down, scoring 106 points per game and boasting a 15-33 record. The All-Star break has yet to arrive, and the Warriors have failed to score 100 points or more in 14 games. That happened just 11 times all of last season. Golden State has scored just 93, 91, and 93 points in their last 3 games; and in their last 5 games, Golden State finished with totals of just 203, 178, 210, 199, and 211 (All games finished UNDER the total).
San Antonio has scored 106+ in their last three games, but they won’t be forcing the tempo here due to the fact that Golden State has one of the best offenses in the NBA and they don't want to get in a shootout with Warriors. (In their previous 6 games, the Spurs scored 99 points or less.) San Antonio will want to win this game with their set offense and their great defense.
The Spurs are 10-14 UNDER when vs. teams with a .500- record this season; ironically, the Warriors are also 10-14 UNDER when vs. teams with a .500+ record this season. Based on our mathematical projections, the O/U line should be 201, which is why we don’t see this game totaling anywhere near 213. Go with the UNDER.
My sub to the Prez for college basketball ran out. If there is anyway you can get his picks for here it would be great. He is golden in college basketball. I have been following him for a couple of months and he is well over 60%.
DOC
4 Unit Play. Take Butler over Green Bay
The Bulldogs just win ballgames and getting them close to a pick’em is just toot good of an opportunity to pass up. They have won 11 straight games and already beat Green Bay once this season, 68-59. They own the series edge 26-13 and win No. 27 will come this evening at the Resch Center. Butler plays outstanding defense and their timely shooting will propel them to a close victory and keep their perfect conference record alive
3-Unit Play Take New Orleans Over Portland
Love the Hornets with this small line at home. New Orleans is coming off two straight losses in tough games but they have not lost three straight at any point in this season – we think they bring their “A” game tonight in front of the home fans in order to thwart the three-game slide. This team has won four of its last five at home and David West is back from his injury and should be at full strength for this game. Both of these teams are great at home but just average on the road. The Blazers are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games and the favorite in this series is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The Hornets have won three of the last four meetings in this series and would have covered this slim line in each win.
Eddie Mush
4* Spurs -4.5
5* Kansas +1.5
Cajun-Sports Executive
Portland Trail Blazers vs. New Orleans Hornets
Pick: New Orleans Hornets -3
The Big Easy will host tonight’s clash between the New Orleans Hornets and the visiting Portland Trailblazers. The Blazers enter tonight’s contest on a four-game winning streak while the Hornets are looking to avoid their first three-game losing streak of the season.
The Blazers last played on Saturday at home versus the Utah Jazz and they took care of them comfortably 122 to 108 as a nine-point home favorite. Portland has been home for a week their last trip away from the Rose Garden was a win against the hapless Clippers 113 to 88 as 10.5 point road chalk. The highway has not been kind to the Blazers overall with a 11-12 straight up record and 9-14 against the number this season.
The Blazers also qualify in a few negative technical situations that indicate they should struggle in the Big Easy tonight. Portland is 5-19 ATS after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite since 1996, 5-18 ATS after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more and 9-22 ATS in road games revenging a home loss the last 3 seasons. Portland also struggles when facing winning teams on the road posting a record of 1-6 against the spread their last seven. The role of underdog has also been tough on the Blazers as they are 1-5 ATS and 0-4 ATS if they are a road underdog.
The Hornets look to end a two-game losing streak that has seen them lose at home to Golden State and on Saturday at San Antonio. You have to go back to last season to find the Hornets losing three in a row. New Orleans is 56-32 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses the last 3 seasons. The Hornets qualify in a couple strong tech sets that indicate they get the win tonight. The Hornets are 53-35 ATS as a home favorite the last 3 seasons, 20-9 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less the last 2 seasons and 8-1 ATS off a road loss this season.
The recent history in this series signals a possible win and cover by the Hornets tonight. We know the host has won nine of the last ten in this series and cashed the winning ticket in eight of those clashes. The favorite in this series has been money as well posting a record of 9-3-1 ATS. The only road win recently came when the Hornets defeated the Blazers on January 2nd in the Rose Garden 92 to 77 as a 1.5 point road favorite. New Orleans is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home versus Portland the last three seasons.
Data base research has uncovered an NBA System that is active for tonight’s game and it tell us to Play AGAINST NBA road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 1 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving teams with a winning percentage of 60 to 75 percent, 109-58 ATS the last five seasons and 10-1 ATS this season!
With significant fundamental, situational and technical support for the host we will back the Hornets here as they end the Blazers winning streak and end a streak of their own. Lay the chalk as New Orleans rolls over Portland in the Big Easy on Monday night.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (4*) New Orleans 102 Portland Trailblazers 94
Kelso
50 units Connecticutt +3
10 units Lakers -5.5
Seabass
100 Memphis Over
50 Lakers
20 New Orleans
10 Golden St
Paul Leiner
300* Mem/Wash Over 193.5
50* UConn/Lville Over 136.5
10* Baylor +1
Gameday Network
50* Wisc Green Bay +2
40* Connecticut +3
40* Kansas -1
40* Dallas +7
40* Memphis +5.5
CHARLIES SPORTS
500* Wisconsin Green Bay +1
30* Louisville -2
20* Baylor +1
20* Memphis +5
10* New York +6
10* Golden State +5 (free play)
LARRY NESS
My 15* Horizon League Game of the Month is on Wisconsin-Green Bay at 8:00 ET. No. 13 Butler (19-1) improved to 10-0 in conference play for the first time in school history with its 59-51 victory over Valparaiso last Friday. It was the Bulldogs' 11th win in a row (7-3 ATS) since the team lost its lone game of this season, 54-51 at Ohio State on Dec 13. It's quite a "second act" for Butler head coach Brad Stevens, who won 30 games last year, in his first season at the school. Butler lost stellar guards Green (14.6-6.5-5.1) and Graves (13.6) off last year's team, along with the 6-7 Campbell (11.7), the 6-6 Betko (4.9-2.4) and the 6-8 Streicher (4.0-2.7). Amazingly, the Bulldogs haven't "missed a beat." The 6-7 Howard (13.3-7.0) is back for his sophomore year and is joined up front by 6-8 freshman Hayward (13.0-6.3). In the backcourt, freshmen Mack (12.8-4.0-3.8) and Nored (3.3-3.1-2.6) are joined by 6-3 junior Veasley (8.9-4.0). While that trio hasn't matched the production of Green and Graves, one can't ignore Butler's 19-1 mark. The 6-8 Jukes (3.9) and guard Vanzant (3.9) are the team's top reserves. Butler's dominated its Horizon League foes going back to last year, as Friday night's win was its 21st straight victory in league play. That ties the record which is held by Wisconsin-Green Bay, which won 21 consecutive games in the Midwestern Collegiate Conference from 1995-1997. The Midwestern Collegiate Conference became the Horizon League in the 2001-02 season. The Phoenix have lost NINE straight to the Bulldogs but are worthy opponents tonight. This team was only 15-15 last year but returned all five starters and will enter this game having won 11 of its last 13 overall (8-2 ATS), since its lone home loss of the year on Dec 18. That loss came to Oakland (Mich) 79-76 in OT but Green Bay will take a 10-1 SU (7-0-1 ATS) home mark into this game. Green Bay actually matches up extremely well with Butler in this game. The 6-8 Tillema (16.4-4.4) is the team's leading scorer while coming off the bench and is listed as a shooting guard. He's a tough matchup for any team, while Green Bay's starting guards Cotton (12.4 PPG up from 4.6 LY) and Fletcher (10.0-2.4-2.9) are hardly chopped liver. The 6-9 Schactner (11.2-4.6), 6-5 swingman Evans 99.6-5.1) and the 6-9 Berry (6.7-5.8) are the starters in the front court. Butler is 11th in the nation in FG defense (37.6 percent) and third in scoring defense (55.4 PPG) but the 17-6 (9-2 in Horizon play) Phoenix lead the Horizon League in scoring (72.2 PPG) and are shooting 41.0 percent on threes for the season. As mentioned earlier, Green Bay's lost just two of its last 13 games. The Phoenix lost at Loyola-Chicago on Jan 2 and avenged that this past Saturday, routing the Ramblers, 87-68. The other loss came at Butler (68-59) on Jan 22 and the Phoenix can make amends for that game, tonight. Green Bay's last win over Butler came back on 1/8/2005 (57-50) and it's about time the Phoenix broke through. As Rod Stewart once sang, "Tonight's the night." Horizon League Game of the Month 15* Wisc-Green Bay.
Yankee Capper
MIAMI HEAT -9.5
RON RAYMOND
5* Buffalo Sabres +140
5* Kings/ Under 222.5
5* Kansas /Baylor Under 153
Indiancowboy
4 Unit Play. Take San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors Over 213
To start off the week in the hopes of winning our 7th straight week in the NBA, let's ride the Over in Golden State today. I think out of all the games today, this is the most intriguing For starters, the line is that is placed on this game is a bit eye-popping. The public is on San Antonio to a tune of 77% making it the biggest public play with the public being on the Lakers at 76% at NY which comes in second. San Antonio (SA) beat this team 123-88 earlier this year, so GS has plenty of revenge and will be up for this game for certain. Note, that SA prior to that game had not been playing well and needed a big win for their morale as that was around the time that Manu and Tony Parker just came back. This Spurs team went through hell in some respects prior to their two key players coming back and when they came back against the Warriors at home, it was a big lift. Both those fellas pitched in about 20 minutes of action a piece in a blowout win. Thus, GS has plenty of revenge getting fired up for this game. Usually, when I believe the dog is likely to make a big upset as in many of my plays, I also lean on the over as well. I have written extensively about my philosophy of "active dogs" and overs and published over double-digit articles about such a principle. This is my Principle and has even been termed the "IC principle" of active dogs and overs. With about 77% of the public on the Spurs today, I do think GS will be very active and consequently play their game. Of course, I don't expect this team to put up just 88 points today as this is the same GS team that put up 105 against Cleveland at home (losing SU by 1 point) and 119 against a defensive Hawks team. Look, the Spurs are good. But, by no means are they holding themselves as far as offensive output. This team put up 114 at Phoenix and 106 at Utah. This team has played 3 straight overs. The public is split on the total in this game with a smaller % actually favoring the Under. If the Phoenix vs. Spurs game can total 218 and the Utah vs. Spurs game can total -206, who is to say that this game does not total over 213? GS comes off tough loss to the Rockets on the road and in some respects are banged up. After all, Azu is questionable Monday but this team team still has plenty of weapons. From the likes of Crawford, Jackson, Ellis, Maggette, Watson and Biedrins. That's 6 fellas who I believe will all be in double-digits and consequently, I expect this game to go over the posted total when all is said and done in a very competitive and exciting game. If you were looking for my honorable mention I liked, I actually think Utah will do very well today coming back home after a tough loss to Portland on the road against a banged up Bobcat team with no Wallace today. But, let me take the Over here in GS as I don't want to back a Jazz team that gets nearly 70% from the public but rather take the Over as it is 4-1 for the Spurs as a small favorite under 4.5 points (indicating when the Spurs are heavily backed by the public, they are in competitive games), the over is 13-5 for the Warriors as Underdogs at home meaning that at home they are competitive and send the total over while the over is 7-2 between these two teams of late.
4 Unit Play. Take St. Peter +11.5 over Siena
Wanna be a Peacock today? Well, that is who we will be rooting for this evening. St. Peter comes off a big win over Iona on the road by a score of 67-64. This team has showed promise despite losing many games this season as they have been very competitive at home and on the road. After all, this team is a quiet 8-4 ATS on the year despite being 6-15 SU on the year. Folks just look at their SU record and fail to realize that this team has potential to cover such big spreads, but just not win SU. Let's not forget that this team was showing signs of improvement and promise prior to the shocking win over Iona on the road as 14 point Underdogs. This team lost by just 1 point to Loyola Maryland on the road despite being 9 point dogs, this team lost by just 2 points to Manhattan despite being 11 point dogs, this team covered against Niagara at home as 14 point dogs, this team lost by 6 to Marist as 10 point dogs on the highway and this team lost 13 easily covering the 22.5 spread against Siena on the road. Well, now they play that same Siena team at home today. Look, if this team can lose by 13 points to Siena on the road, who is to say they can't be competitive to fall within the 11 point spread at home today? The game against Siena the first time around, this team was a bit shell-shocked in the early goings as they were outscored 19-33 at the end of the first half. But, in the second half, this team actually outscored Siena 33-32. I believe they take that confidence with them at home from the first half to the second half as they will stay competitive and focused throughout this game. Remember, this team has been playing better consistently as the season has gone on and Siena comes off a huge win over Canisius at home. I simply feel they will not have that edge today coming off such a big win as they have defeated this St. Peter team by double-digits already this year and will take it relatively lax in the first half. Look for a game similar to when Siena played Marist on the road and won by 6 points in OT or Siena's road game against Manhattan when they won by 4. I expect Siena to win this game by 7-9 points today but to have St. Peter fall inside the 11.5 safety net. The Saints of Siena are 0-4 ATS as favorites of 7 to 12 points and St. Peter is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 conference games. Besides, the Peacock is the National Bird of India which is my ancestry despite the fact I born and raised in Bama, how can they let me down?
AntonWins
3 units Dallas/Orlando Over 207.5