BEN BURNS
Monday Main Event
I'm laying the points with SIENA.
These teams both had excellent regular seasons and were clearly the two top teams in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. That was expected from the Saints but one could argue that the Purple Eagles over-achieved somewhat. Either way, here they are squaring off against each other in the MAAC title game for the third time in the last eight years. While I respect the Purple Eagles, I still believe that the Saints are the stronger team. Perhaps more importantly, they've got the "situation" in their favor here. The Saints appear to be peaking at the right time, as they're coming off back to back double-digit victories. Note that yesterday's 80-65 victory started at 6:30pm EST. On the other hand, Niagara is coming off an exhausting "thriller" against Rider last night, a game which started at 8:30pm EST. I use words like "exhausting" and "thriller," as the Purple Eagles needed a "30 foot prayer" at the end of regulation to force overtime. The first overtime period would solve nothing, with Niagara eventually winning in double-overtime. I believe that type of "gruelling" late night victory will make it very tough on the Purple Eagles here. In addition to facing a powerful Siena squad, they also have to play on the Saints' home floor. Note that the teams split a pair of meetings this season with the home team winning by double-digits each time. In fact, the Saints are 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS the last four times they were a host in this series, each of the last three victories coming by double-digits. Including this season's earlier victory, when they were favored by 5.5 points, the Saints are 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Looking back further and we find them at 15-9-2 ATS the last 26 times that they were home favorites in this range. You may remember the Saints scoring a decisive victory over Vandy in the Big Dance last year. They brought back all the same players from that team and anything less than another Conf. Tournament title and another trip to the tournament will be a major disappointment. Look for them to be the fresher team as they earn the big win and cover the relatively small number along the way. *MAAC Tourny GOY - Monday Main Event
Las Vegas Sport Picks
NBA:
2* Nuggets -4
3* Hornets/Hawks under 188
NCAA:
2* George Mason/VCU under 122
4* Siena -3
NHL:
1* Leafs/Sens over 6
Mike Lineback
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
JB Sports
DENVER NUGGETS
Opposite Action Plays
SIENA
Lenny Del Genio
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Tony George
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Ron Raymond
Rangers/Hurricanes Under
Nick Parsons
VANCOUVER CANUCKS
Adam Meyer
Orlando Magic (-1.5 Points) vs. Detroit Pistons
While Detroit remains a nemesis for the Magic ,Orlando is riding some momentum after winning its 4th straight game on Sunday, beating Boston 86-79. The Pistons are coming off a close loss to Atlanta and again will be without Allen Iverson. The Pistons are only 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games at home.
Play: Orlando Magic -1.5 4.5 Units
Sam Cheng
Los Angeles Lakers (-2 Points) vs. Portland Trailblazers
The Lakers face a good home team in Portland. They have beaten them twice already this season in Los Angeles. The Blazers looked sluggish in their 2-point win against the Timberwolves the other night. In the meantime, the Lakers rested their starters in the 4th quarter as they routed that same ‘Wolves team by 20 points. That rest will pay big dividends tonight.
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -2 4.5 Units
Harvey Slavin
Carolina Hurricanes (-140) vs. New York Rangers
Carolina has won 4 of their last five games and has scored 20 goals in their last three games. The home ice helps a hot Hurricanes team keep the momentum going against the Rangers tonight.
Play: Carolina Hurricanes -140 3 Units
Probasketballlocks
Detroit Pistons
Denver Nuggets
Portland Trailblazers
THE GOLD SHEET'S LTS (+)
COLLEGE HOOPS
COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON (-2 1/2) over Chattanooga
NIAGARA (+3 1/2) over Siena Metro-Atlantic Tourney Final
NBA
CHICAGO at MIAMI "OVER" 202
Brandon Lang
15 Dimer VCU - Get off that George Mason-bandwagon. It?s a distant memory from that Cinderella season, and the Patriots are no longer the power team in this conference. Surprise, surprise, it?s VCU ? the regular-season champ ? and tonight we?re going to see it come alive behind two-time Player of the Year Eric Maynor and waltz right into the Big Dance with the automatic bid. It won?t be easy, I believe that, but the Rams have the better overall team. And because we have a player like Maynor on our side, I believe we may be seeing the 2009 version of Davidson right before our very eyes.
The fact is, as much as I am impressed by the Rams, is as dismayed as I am about George Mason?s semi-final struggle with 11th-seeded Towson. Two straight days, and two straight eight-point wins. Quite frankly, I expected more from the Patriots. In the long regular season clash between these two teams, on Jan. 24th, the Rams earned the 76-71 win. That will go a long way tonight in terms of the confidence the Rams will have.
VCU has limited foes to a mere 40 percent shooting from the field, resulting in 63.8 points per game allowed and a scoring margin of better than eight points per game. The pats may bet the defending conference tourney champs, but this is VCU?s year, and I?m laying it with the right side.
15 Dimer College of Charleston - Davidson is out, and the road to the Big Dance now goes through legendary coach Bobby Cremins. I remember his tenacity when he was with Georgia Tech, and now he?s instilled that with the Cougars. Yesterday they shocked the world by negating a nine-point deficit to knock off Stephen Curry and Davidson, and while the Wildcats will be hoping for an at-large bid, the Cougars will make it the old fashioned way ? they?ll earn it.
I don?t trust a Chattanooga team that needed a close 79-78 squeaker over Elon to get it done in the second round, and that certainly doesn?t have the offensive horsepower to overcome Charleston?s defense. The Cougars have won 12 of 21 meetings with Chattanooga in the all-time serie, including an 86-77 decision over the Mocs earlier this season inside this same McKenzie Arena.
Charleston rolls in having covered six of eight ? all in Southern Conference play ? and 11 of 15 against winning teams. And since the Mocs are 1-6 in their last seven in league action, I like the slim chalk here.
15 Dimer Arkansas Little Rock - Interesting game between South Alabama and Ark-Little Rock, and though it might seem as if I am going against the Jaguars because they knocked off Troy last night and ruined my winning day, I honestly wasn?t impressed and would take Troy again if the two played again tonight. USA was the beneficiary of a terrible shooting performance in the second half by the Trojans.
Tonight that won?t be the case against these set of Trojans, who won the West Division of the Sun Belt Conference with a 15-3 mark, and most certainly have the better all-around team ? both offensively and defensively. And when you have a team that virtually manhandled John Calipari?s Memphis Tigers in non-conference play, and you?re a mid-major, you have a team to reckon with.
When Arkansas Little Rock lost 59-51 to Memphis, I called my boy Chris Jordan in Las Vegas and told him personally we would be discussing the Trojans in March and how this team would be battling for the Sun Belt title. Incidentally, he alerted me to Tennessee-Chattanooga in that same conversation. Turns out we were both right with our keen senses on these mid-majors.
The Trojans are on ATS runs of 4-1 against teams with a winning record on the wood, 9-3 in their last 12 as a favorite of no more than 6-1/2 points and 11-4 overall ? all of which were in Sun Belt play. On the flipside, the Jaguars come into this one on a bevy of spread slides, including being 3-7 as an underdog, 4-14 ATS in their last 18 against winning teams, 1-4 after an ATS win, 1-5 when catching points on a neutral court and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall ? all in conference play.
We take it to the betting numbers for these bonus 5-Dimers, because one thing to remember with the postseason, is there is no lying when it comes to true numbers in basketball. They give a true gauge of how a team is playing, and that?s why the betting numbers are good to look at in the conference finals.
For instance, with my 5 Dimer on Niagara, we find the Purple Eagles are on spread streaks of 9-3 when installed as an underdog, 4-1 off an ATS loss, 8-3 in conference play and 13-5 whenever taking on a team that has won more than 60 percent of its games. On the flipside, Siena, the regular-season conference titlist, is mired in ATS skids of 5-13 on an unbiased basketball court and 2-6 when laying chalk on a neutral hardwood.
With my 5 Dimer on North Texas, we see the Mean Green is on ATS runs of 16-3 on a neutral court, 4-1 against winning teams, 20-6 when installed as the pup, 10-3 when catching points on an impartial court and 8-3 overall ? all in Sun Belt play. On the flipside, the Hilltoppers tend to fall flat on their face after a stellar defensive effort, as they?re on a 1-5 ATS skid after giving up less than 50 in their last contest. Let?s play the Mean Green Eagles here, as they roll to the win and cover.
FREE - Portland Trailblazers
Kelso
10 Siena
5 Charleston
3 G Mason
3 St. Mary's
5 Heat
3 T/Wolves
Indian Cowboy
4 Unit Play. Take Charleston -2.5 over Chattanooga
We come off a sound 5-2 (71%) week in college ball as we have won back to back weeks and more importantly 7 of 9 weeks as we gear up for a huge run this March Madness. We profited in January and February in college hoops for a total of nearly 50 Units and I'm confident we will do the same in March. For today's play, let's take Charleston over Chattanooga on the road as the small chalk today. If you are looking for another dog play, you can take a long look at St. Marys who lost by 7 on the road to Zaga and 2 at home to Zaga only to be catching 7 on a a neutral site in Las Vegas. But, I just don't want to go against Zaga and will take Charleston and the great coaching that this program has had. Charleston has brought a swagger and athletic toughness to its program that it did not have a few years back. The athleticism of Charleston players combined with the offensive set they run has truly made a remarkable difference. This is Charleston's year. Remember, this is the same team that beat Davidson earlier this year 77-75 on the road. This is the same team that went 15-5 in conference play. This is the same team 13 and 19 its first two conference tourney games. This is the same team that went beat Davidson again in the third round 59-52. This is the same team that went 6-2 in conference play on the road, posted a 26 win season and has already defeated Chattanooga by a margin of 9 on the road earlier this year. Chattanooga of course is at home and will have the crowd behind them. But, Charleston has faced even tougher adversity and has consistency overcome it including winning by 9 here earlier this year and beating Davidson twice this year including on the highway. If Chattanooga had its troubles with Elon and Samford, they are going to be in for a whirlwind of trouble against Charleston today who is the rightful champion of this conference. The Charleston Cougars are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site contests, 15-6 ATS as small favorites this yea and the Chattanooga Mochs are just 3-7 ATS when facing teams with a winning % of 60% or more - not to mention they are 6-15 ATS as Underdogs as well. Let's go Cougars!
4 Unit Play. Take the Portland Trailblazers +2 over L.A. Lakers