does anyone know what the deal is with this john morrison guy he claims he is the best and that he is 59-0 is this complete BS??
does anyone know what the deal is with this john morrison guy he claims he is the best and that he is 59-0 is this complete BS??
Complete BS he uses a double up system to claim that record so he doesn't count losses.
Robert Ferringo
2009 MLB Futures Plays
6-Unit Play. Take Tampa Bay ‘Under’ 89.0 Total Wins (BetCris)
Man, o’ man, o’ man, did the Rays have a season in 2008. Talk about coming out of nowhere: this team was basically a minor league team before it busted out for 97 wins and the A.L. Championship. It was a Cinderella story that made everyone feel good.
It kind of reminds me of the 2007 Colorado Rockies. They only won about 20 games less the season following their magical run. Or what about the 2006 Detroit Tigers, whose turnaround mirrored that of Tampa Bay? They back-slid seven games in 2007, the year after their magical run. And finally, the last World Series loser was the 2005 Houston Astros. They also saw their win total slip back by seven games following their magical run and they too missed the playoffs. So, clearly, the recent World Series losers – especially one that came out of NOWHERE to made it into the Fall Classic have experienced a significant decline the following season. I think Tampa is in for a similar regression.
It seems obvious to say that Tampa Bay overachieved last year. But if you look at some of the metrics that I (and a lot of serious baseball people) use to project teams really show how much they overachieved.
First, the Rays surpassed their Pythagorean (Expected) Wins total by a full six wins. Well, teams that were +5 or higher against their X-Wins the year before (Tampa was +6) had fewer wins the next season in 22 of 32 instances over the last six years. And over the last six years the team that had the second-highest overachievement against the X-Wins (the Angels were No. 1 last year) saw their wins drop by an average of 13 games the following season. And even if you kick out Seattle’s 27-game plummet between 2007 and 2008 the No. 2 overachiever dropped an average of 10 wins the following year.
Further, the Rays were an incredible 29-18 in one-run games and 38-26 in games in which they scored between 3-5 runs. Both of those win totals were No. 2 in the Majors and will be nearly impossible to replicate. Just like in football when you have teams that win an inordinate amount of games by three or six points or less one year they usually drop off significantly the following season.
Finally, the Rays received unbelievable pitching last year and play great defense. But there are some indications – particularly in the innings increase across the board – that suggest to me that they could have some starters injured this year and they could have some guys slide back from their career numbers. You also have to consider the wear and tear that all of those postseason innings added onto these young arms as well. And this lineup is not good enough to carry this team. If you really look at their lineup they are basically just a bunch of .250 to .275 hitters that performed exceptionally well in the clutch last year.
Basically, this team just caught a rush and had a dream season last year. They won a ridiculous amount of games with late-inning comebacks or late-inning heroics. That doesn’t carry over to the next season. Add on top of that the fact that the Red Sox will be more stable and the Yankees improved and wins are going to be more difficult to come by. Also, Tampa Bay isn’t going to sneak up on anyone this year. Up until about July last year teams were still looking at Tampa Bay the same way they had for the seven years prior: an easy series victory. Now that they are the defending A.L. champions they go from being the team that opponents use to rest their players against to being the team that opponents rest their players for. To beat us the Rays would have to go out and win 90, 91, or 92 games. I don’t see it happening. I think they could have a totally respectable year with 86 or 88 wins and we will collect in the process.
5-Unit Play. Take Toronto ‘Under’ 79.5 Total Wins (Bodog)
This Blue Jays team reminds me just a little bit of the 2008 San Diego Padres. Both teams were coming off several strong years of competing in their division by relying on great pitching, strong defense, and timely hitting to win one-run games. Well, a couple injuries, a couple guys underperforming, and all of a sudden the wheels came off for the Dads last year and they tumbled to a 63-win disaster. The Blue Jays have averaged a very respectable 80.5 wins per season over the last five years but I think this is their weakest club and I think they are set to tumble.
Last year the Blue Jays had the best pitching in baseball. They played exceptional defense and won a lot of 3-1, 2-1 games. However, they enter the season without three of the five starters that made their rotation so formidable last year: A.J. Burnett was traded and both Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum is likely going to miss this season with injuries. That leaves Roy Halladay and shaky Jesse Litsch as the only arms they have. That’s not good. The bullpen is still solid, but without the starters eating up innings (Toronto’s starters threw the most innings of any team in the Majors last year) the bullpen is going to get worn out and exposed. Again, the key to their run in 2008 was starting pitching and they just don’t have those arms any more.
This team was actually on my list of Pythagorean underachievers last season. But there is no way – absolutely no way – they are going to top last season’s 86 wins. The PECOTA Letdown System (two or more straight years of surpassing the PECOTA projections means they will come under the projections the following year) is in play with this team and their PECOTA is already just at 74. If they come up lower than that I see around 72 wins for this club.
Further, I think that Baltimore is much improved and that they are going to threaten, if not take over, fourth place in the A.L. East. But it is clear that Toronto and Baltimore are fighting for that fourth place slot. Well, Toronto’s 2008 season was historic for another reason: they far surpassed the 10-year average wins for the fourth place team in the A.L. East, which is just 72.2. In fact, only once in the last 10 years has the team that finished in fourth in the East won more than 78 games and only twice have they won over 74 games. Toronto won 86. That’s a severe statistical anomaly.
Also, the Blue Jays have actually gone ‘Under’-‘Over’-‘Under’-‘Over’ for their season wins totals. I think this holds true to form and that Toronto is a very strong ‘Under’ play.
3-Unit Play. Take Milwaukee ‘Under’ 81.5 Total Wins (BetCris)
Writeup to follow.
2.5-Unit Play. Take Atlanta ‘Over’ 83.5 Total Wins (BetCris)
While it seems like Atlanta has been simply sliding down from their Glory Days over the past few seasons they have really been on a roller coaster in relation to their preseason projections. They severely overachieved in 2005 and then came back to dreadfully underachieve against inflated projections in 2006. They bounced back relatively strong in 2007, by topping their Vegas total and PECOTA projections, but then went downhill in 2008, staying ‘under’ their PECOTA and Vegas predictions.
Now, the last time that they went under both their PECOTA and Vegas totals was 2006 and they bounced back with a solid ‘over’ in 2007. And further the preseason PECOTA projections is a perfect 4-0 against the Vegas odds in predicting how the Braves will (if the PECOTA is higher than Vegas the Braves have gone ‘over’ and vice versa). Well, this year Atlanta’s PECOTA is set at a solid 86.
Next, the Braves have actually underachieved, according to their Pythagorean Wins total, in each of the last three seasons. They were -6 in 2006 and, in holding with my Pythagorean Wins System, they went ‘over’ their Vegas wins total in 2007. However, they did so while still posting a -4. Then last year they posted a -7, which again means that they should increase their wins. And when you consider how they underachived last year according to their Vegas total and their PECOTA, that makes the 2008 Atlanta Braves as Total Underachievers. And over the last two years TU’s have gone a solid 8-3 against their Vegas wins total the following season and 10-6 ‘over’ in the past three years.
The Braves were also the worst team in the Majors – by far – in one run games. They were a pathetic 11-30. This team has won an average of 84.3 games per season over each of the past five years and has only failed to top 84 wins twice during that stretch.
Finally, if you just look at Atlanta’s roster there is no doubt that this is set to be a better team this year. They significantly upgraded their pitching staff by bringing in innings eaters in Derek Lowe and Javy Vasquez. That slides Jair Jurrjens, who had a breakout year, back a few slots and allows guys like Kawakami, Glavine and Jorge Campillo to fill out the back end. Also, as long as close Mike Gonzalez and some of the other arms stay healthy then this bullpen is going to be significantly better. And, again, if the starters are going deeper into games (the Braves were No. 27 of 30 in terms of starters’ innings pitched last year) that is also going to help protect what could be a decent bullpen.
Atlanta also had a load of injuries in the field last year. Chipper was banged up. Yunel Escobar is going to have a breakout year (bank it) and was playing great until he hurt his wrist. Matt Diaz can rake, and they missed his bat in left. I think Casey Kotchman is going to bounce back and have a real solid year. I mean, the guy was traded from the team with the best record in baseball to the way-out-of-contention Braves, so I can understand him not finishing strong. Guys like Brandon Jones, Jordan Schafer, Jeff Franceour, and Greg Blanco have some upside. And solid pros like Garrett and Brian Anderson can fill do some good things and provide a steady hand. Mix in the fact that Bobby Cox is still one of the best in the business and I think that Atlanta will be back in business.
This number is going to be close. Really close. The Braves will likely win around 85 or 86 games this year. But as long as we get to 84 I’m cool with it.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Los Angeles Angels ‘Under’ 88.5 Total Wins
I know that this seems like an odd play considering that the Angels have dominated the A.L. West over the last several seasons, they have won an average of 94 games over the last five years, and they are coming off a season in which they won 100 games. However, given all those facts don’t you think that it’s odd that their wins total is so LOW to start the year? To me that’s a huge red flag and that makes the ‘over’ a sucker bet.
Also, all of the numbers I considered suggest a massive letdown.
The Angels were by far the league’s biggest overachievers last year. Their +12 actual wins total vs. their Pythagorean Wins total was far and away the highest disparity as was their +12 actual wins vs. their PECOTA projections. That’s a tremendous disparity. Teams that were +5 or higher against the Pythagorean wins had fewer wins in 22 of 32 seasons, while teams that surpassed their PECOTA wins two (or more) year in a row had fewer wins in 19 of 32 instances. Next, teams that were Total Overachievers – according to the three matrices that I use – have gone just 6-11 against their Vegas wins total the next season.
Also, the Angels had the most wins in the league in one-run games last year (31). It’s unusual for that level of late-game luck to hold up yet again for this team.
So besides the fact that all of the numbers are SCREAMING that the Angels are going to be a letdown this season there are also some issues I have with their roster. They lost Mark Teixeira, Garrett Anderson and K-Rod from last year’s team, and all three were really key pieces. I understand that they had some injury issues that they overcame last season, but I think that’s just because they have some injury-prone guys and that it could be a factor again this year. Bobby Abreau and Vlad Guerrero are aging and can’t be counted on for a full 162, and if Vlad is lost this team is in real trouble.
John Lackey is already experiencing arm trouble and Ervin Santana is going to miss the first month of the year. They ditched steady Jon Garland. Kelvim Escobar is still working back from injury. Lackey, Santana, and Garland combined for 88 starts, a 42-20 record, and about half of Anaheim’s total starter’s innings. Escobar was 18-7 in 2007. The Angels likely will open the season with a rotation of righthanders Nick Adenhart, Shane Loux, Dustin Moseley and Jered Weaver and lefthander Joe Saunders. That’s not good.
The only reason that this isn’t a top play – it has all the makings – is because I have that much respect for Mike Scioscia and the Angels organization. Oh, that and the A.L. West stinks.
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 71.5 Baltimore Total Wins (Bodog)
0.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' Kansas City 75.5 Total Wins (Bodog)
0.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 84.5 Cleveland Total Wins (BetCris)
Vernon Croy
20 Unit Monday Night NHL SMASH TOP PLAY!
San Jose Sharks vs. Calgary Flames (Mar 30 9:35 PM)
Calgary Flames -135
Calgary has been very dominant at home this season and San Jose has too many injuries to compete against the Flames tonight. The Sharks are 0-4 in their last 4 games when playing against a team with a winning record and they are just 1-4 in their last 5 road games. The Sharks are just 1-4 in their last 5 trips to Calgary and the Flames are 16-6 in their last 22 home games. The Flames are 8-2 in their last 10 games against a Western Conference opponent and they are 4-1 in their last 5 games against a team that has a winning record above .600 like the Sharks. Take Calgary as my NHL Smash for Monday night.
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Sorry for being so lazy today guys i'm sick as a dog and spent most of the day sleeping.
Executive
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Blade, i hope you'll feel better tomorrow. you're doing great job, thanks.
take care yourself man.