Craig Davis
50 Dime Denver Nuggets
5 Dime Florida Marlins
Jeff Benton
15 Dime Lakers/Nuggets Under
10 Dime Rangers
Raging Bull
Lakers/Nuggets over 208
EZ Winners
2* Reds -102
2* Tigers -129
2* Rays -103
1* Pirates +106
Free- Cardinals +102
PPP/Gavazzi
3* Lakers
Beatyourbookie
100* Lakers
100* Mets
Las Vegas Sport Picks
4* Lakers +165
Doc's Sports
4-Unit Play Take #980 Los Angeles Angels -160 over Chicago White Sox (9:05pm.)
3-Unit Play Take #976 Oakland A’s -135 over Seattle Mariners (4:05pm.)
3-Unit Play Take 954 UNDER 7 ½ Runs Milwaukee-St. Louis Cardinals (2:05pm.)
Jeff Benton
15 Dime: Lakers-Nuggets UNDER the total
10 Dime: RANGERS
Lakers-Nuggets UNDER the total
You can’t ignore the numbers. Of the last 10 games between the Nuggets and Lakers, nine of them have played “under” the total. And each of the last six meetings in Denver has stayed low. What’s more, the under has cashed in each of the Lakers’ last seven playoff games going back to Game 4 of the Rockets series, and L.A. has held seven of its last nine opponents under triple digits and hasn’t given up more than 106 points in any of its last 10 games.
Back to this rivalry: In the last nine meetings, the winning team has scored 107 points or fewer six times, and on five occasions during this stretch, one of the two teams didn’t crack triple digits. So far in this series, Denver is averaging 102 ppg and shooting 43.9 percent from the field and the Lakers are putting up 103.7 ppg and also shooting 43.9 percent. And in addition to that, neither squad is shooting free throws very well in this series, particularly Los Angeles in the last two games.
Finally, in addition to their current 7-0 “under” run, the Lakers are on “under” streaks that include 23-9 overall, 8-0 in conference finals games, 6-0 against the Northwest Division (including 3-0 in the final three games of the Jazz series in the opening round), 5-1 on the road and 20-7 when playing after one day of rest. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have stayed low in four straight games against Pacific Division squads and six of their last eight when laying less than five points.
Bottom line: There are just way too many signs pointing to the Lakers and Nuggets going under the total once more, and barring overtime – which is impossible to forecast – we’ll see this one fall short of the number.
Rangers
At some point, the Texas Rangers are going to start getting respect from the oddsmakers. But right now, they’re not, and it’s especially true today as Texas should be a sizeable favorite in this series opener against the Yankees. After yesterday’s 5-0 shutout win over the Astros completed a three-game interleague sweep, the Rangers are now 10-3 in their last 13 games and 16-5 in their last 21. That includes eight consecutive home wins, and for the season, Texas is 14-6 in its own ballpark, batting .303 as a team with a very respectable 4.43 ERA.
By comparison, the Yankees are just 11-10 on the road with a .267 team average and a 4.81 team ERA. Speaking of the road, the last time New York starter Phil Hughes worked on a foreign mound, he didn’t even get out of the second inning in Baltimore as he got rocked for eight runs in 1 2/3 innings. So far, Hughes has made two road starts and posted a 9.39 ERA, allowing eight runs in 7 2/3 innings, and that was against offenses not nearly as potent as Texas’.
Another problem for Hughes is he’s not giving New York innings. He hasn’t lasted more than five innings in any of his last four outings, going a total of 15 2/3 frames in those five contests. That’s a big deal because the Yankees’ bullpen before Mariano Rivera is really weak.
Finally, Rangers starter Matt Harrison is proving he’s the real deal. He’s 4-3 with a 4.71 ERA overall but 2-1 with a 2.74 ERA in his last three starts and 2-1 with a 3.79 ERA at home, which is one of the toughest pitchers parks in baseball. The Rangers are 4-1 in Harrison’s last five trips to the mound (2-0 at home), and the fact he comes from the left side is important because the Yankees are hitting just .264 against southpaws over the past 10 contests.
Bottom line: We’ve got a hot team with a superior starting pitcher playing at home where they’ve dominated all season, and they’re laying this cheap price. Love Texas in this one!
Maddux Sports
3 units on Denver -4.5
3 units on Cincinnati +110
3 units on Milwaukee -115
3 units on LA Dodgers +127
3 units on Boston +115
3 units on Seattle +128
3 units on Tampa Bay +10
Larry Ness
9* Situational Mismatch - Phi Phillies.
Stephen Nover
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks
I'm not impressed with the Padres bringing a nine-game winning streak into this matchup.San Diego is not a good team. All nine of the Padres' victories came at Petco Park.Playing at Chase Field is something much different for the Padres. They are a major-league worst 5-16 on the road. The Padres have lost 11 in a row on the road.The Diamondbacks are playing better and with more confidence. They are 4-1 in their last five games.I look for Doug Davis to bounce back and have another solid start against the Padres. Davis was 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA against the Padres last year. He is 5-1 versus San Diego with a 2.40 ERA during the past three seasons.The Padres are going with Chad Gaudin, a journeyman No. 5 type pitcher.
This is a one-unit play for me.
Winning Way Sports
5 unit GOY LA Lakers +4.5
MTi Sports
Lakers at Nuggets
Pick: Lakers +4.5
The Lakers showed their mental toughness in game three, outscoring the Nuggets 32-18 in the fourth quarter. The six-point final margin was the Lakers’ biggest lead of the game. LA is very tough in this spot, rarely suffering a let-down after these types of wins. The Lakers are 17-1 ATS on the road after a win on the road in which Kobe Bryant took more than 20 shots, 8-0 ATS after a win on the road in which Derek Fisher scored fewer than 10 points and a perfect 8-0 ATS THIS season on the road off a road win in which they trailed at the end of the third quarter.The Nuggets, on the other hand, are 0-6 ATS (-10.3 ppg) off a loss as a favorite in which they led at the end of the third quarter. Also, in the PLAYOFFS, Denver is 0-6 ATS when facing a team they lost to at home in their previous match-up.Finally, the Nuggets are 0-5 ATS (-6.8 ppg) during the playoffs after a home loss in which Carmelo Anthony was the Nuggets' high scorer.This is a lot of points to be giving the Lakers. Grab’em.
MTi’s FORECAST: LA Lakers 97 DENVER 95
Jimmy Boyd
LA Lakers at Denver
Play: Over 208.5
3 straight unders in this series have brought the total down 5 points since Game 1 and now the books will pay for making such a mistake. We saw these teams score 208 and 209 points respectively in Games 1 and 2 and after totaling only 200 in a poor shooting Game 3, I expect to see a shootout. Denver is averaging 108.2 ppg at home this season and the Lakers are averaging 104.6 ppg on the road. Denver is 36-9 OVER when both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season. The average score in these games was DENVER 112.7, OPPONENT 107.8. And the Lakers are 37-11 OVER when both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season. The average score was LA LAKERS 113.2, OPPONENT 107.6. Bet the Over.