Matt Fargo
San Diego vs. Saint Marys CA
Play: San Diego
St. Mary’s looks like the perfect take here. The Gaels are coming off their first home loss of the season and they are now playing with some revenge following their only conference loss of the season that took place in San Diego exactly four weeks ago. The problem is that both of these factors are being taken into consideration with this line as it has been overadjusted making a St. Mary’s play impossible and thus putting the Toreros in the spot now.
Let’s take one quick look at how this line has been overadjusted. Earlier in the season, St. Mary’s was favored by 14 points at home over Santa Clara, who is 5-6 in the conference. Now, the Gaels are favored over a 9-2 San Diego team by nearly the same amount points as that? I need to hear the explanation of this because it does not make sense no matter how many ways you look at it. Revenge can only go so far especially when playing against a team that is just a game back in the conference standings.
San Diego has won eight of its last nine games with the one loss being a home defeat to Gonzaga by just four points. As a matter of fact, the Toreros have lost only twice since January 12th and both of those defeats were against the Bulldogs. They have won five straight games on the road including a victory over Santa Clara this past weekend it what easily could have been a huge lookahead spot. Instead, the Toreros simply played their game and continued their solid season.
St. Mary’s is pretty banged up as well. Center Omar Samhan and forward Lucas Walker both incurred right shoulder injuries on Saturday. Samhan is a game-time decision and Walker is questionable. Samhan, who hurt that same shoulder against Santa Clara 12 days ago, did not return to the game. In the first meeting, St. Mary’s struggled to contain Brandon Johnson and Gyno Pomare, who scored 25 and 20 points respectively. San Diego was successful, just like Kent St. was, in slowing the pace to a half court game.
St. Mary’s has struggled in games when it cannot control the tempo, going 3-12 ATS against teams that allow 64 or fewer ppg over the last two seasons. San Diego meanwhile is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 10 or more and 13-3 ATS in road conference games over the last two seasons. The Toreros are also in a solid situation. Play on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after three or more straight covers and playing their 2nd game in three days. This situation is 38-16 ATS (70.4 percent) over the last five seasons.
Play San Diego Toreros 1 Unit
Tom Freese
Game: San Francisco at Santa Clara
Prediction: Santa Clara
Reason: Santa Clara is 4-0 Straight Up and ATS their last 4 games vs. San Francisco and they are 7-3 ATS their last 10 conference games. The Broncos are 16-5 ATS vs. a team with a win percentage under 40%. San Francisco is 0-6 ATS with same season revenge and they are 2-10 ATS off losing 2 of their last 3 games. The Dons are 2-7 ATS on Monday and they are 1-4 ATS their last 5 conference games. PLAY ON SANTA CLARA
John Ryan
Game: San Diego at St. Marys
Prediction: San Diego
Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on San Diego ? AiS shows a 70% probability that SD will lose this game by 11 or fewer points. Many of you benefitted greatly from my winning 10* Monster DOG Game of the Year on ken State when they won straight up on the road against St., Mary?s and were installed as a 8.5 point dog too. This loss at home is devastating to St. Mary?s, who to this point had believed they were a true and worthy top-25 team in the country. Not the case come Monday morning and this hangover ? no matter what team we are talking about ? will have a distinct effect in the next game. AiS also shows a 79% probability that SD will hit at least 40% from the field tonight. Note that SD is 12-3 ATS when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 38-16 ATS for 70% since 2002. Play on road dogs of 10 to 19.5 points after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games and is playing their 2nd game in 3 days. Take SD to keep this game much closer than anyone believes possible.
Robert Ross
Game: Marquette at Villanova
Prediction: Marquette
Reason: Doubt Villanova can regroup and come up with another supreme effort to topple Marquette after its two-point home win over Connecticut Saturday. Golden Eagles have won four straight and seven-of-nine and are 3-1 on the Conference road after an 0-3 start.
Take Marquette!
Scott Rickenbach
Washington Wizards (+) @ New Orleans
The Wizards are a classic example of an ugly dog in this spot. Washington, despite still dealing with injuries to Caron Butler and Gilbert Arenas, is playing much better than many expected they would. They can absolutely compete here with a Hornets team that has struggled recently. New Orleans is coming off back to back losses including a tough defeat at San Antonio on Saturday night. That leaves New Orleans with a little bit of a "hangover" heading into this game and we don't expect them to 'shake it' quickly. The fact is that the Hornets will be able to run and gun tonight since that's what the Wizards like to do also. However, the dropoff in defensive intensity for the Hornets will mean that the road team should be able to stay inside the big number in this one all game long.
Play Washington plus the points.
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on San Diego/St. Mary's OVER 128
St. Mary's is averaging 82.1 ppg at home this season. Even though San Diego will try to slow the game down, it isn't going to be able to completely shut down the Gaels. San Diego is 12-4 OVER against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons, 24-11 OVER as a road underdog or pick since 1997, and 7-0 OVER after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Toreros are also 11-1 OVER in road games versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997. This one will go OVER by at least 10 points.
LT Profits Sports Group
St. Mary’s is in revenge mode, but San Diego is no pushover, as the Toreros are 8-1 SU in their last nine games and 5-0 SU in their last five road games. Take the points.
This is a revenge game for the St. Mary’s Gaels, who lost on the road to the San Diego Toreros a month ago, but that alone does not justify this huge spread vs. a quality team.
The Toreros are as hot as any team in the West Coast conference right now, and yes that includes St. Mary’s and Gonzaga. San Diego is 8-1 straight up in the last nine games, and they covered the spread in the only loss, a four-point defeat to Gonzaga. Furthermore, they are 5-0 SU and 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games, and extended further they are an outstanding 25-11 ATS in their last 36 road contests.
Now St. Mary’s is certainly a quality squad, but they are coming off of a potentially demoralizing 65-57 home loss to Kent State in a Bracket Buster game in a game where they had a chance to make a statement for the conference. Granted, that was their first home SU loss of the season after a 14-0 start, but we simply feel that San Diego is a very difficult team right now to try and rebound against.
While the Gaels will probably win this game on the court, this rather enormous spread gives us plenty of leeway to nab this cover.
Pick: San Diego +12
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Raptors -3.5
The Pacers have lost 11 of their last 14 games SU and 9 of those ATS. The Raptors have been playing solid basketball and have picked it up of late winning 3 of their last 4 SU and ATS. Toronto is 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS versus the Pacers over the last 2 seasons. The Pacers are 5-20 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game over the last 2 seasons and 9-19 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The Raptors are 22-8 ATS in February games over the last 3 seasons. This has been Toronto's month. We'll take the Dinosaurs laying a small number.
Gold Medal Club
18 Karat UNC -Greensboro
14 Karat Valpo
LT'S LOCK
Kansas St. -2
NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE
Kansas St. over 148
Big Al McMordie
NO Hornets -10
BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
UNDER villanova/marquette
Game: Marquette vs. Villanova Game Time: 2/25/2008 7:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on VILLANOVA and Marquette to finish UNDER the number. Both teams bring some momentum into this evening's game largely due to their excellent defensive play. The Golden Eagles come off four straight SU/ATS victories, allowing an average of just 57.5 points in those games. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have won three in a row, going 4-0 against the number. Prior to the recent streak, Villanova had been a disappointment in Big East play. The difference lately has been on the defensive side of the ball. Indeed, the Wildcats held the Huskies to 65 points on Saturday and also held each of their previous three opponents to 56 points or less. Holding West Virginia to 56, including just 21 in the first half, was particularly impressive as the Mountaineers had averaged 85 points over their previous two games. The whole team has clearly been buying into Jay Wright's message about playing tough defense. As junior forward Dwayne Anderson had to say: "Every guy on the floor is committed to defense, and that's what's really changing everything around for us." Not surprisingly, the UNDER has gone a perfect 6-0 their last six games. Villanova has seen the UNDER go 5-1 on the season when coming off a conference win while Marquette has seen the UNDER go 6-3 in that situation and 3-1 when playing a game (with a total) with one or less day's rest. The Golden Eagles are currently listed as very slight favorites. That's worth noting as Villanova has seen the UNDER go 5-0 when listed as an underdog this season and a profitable 14-2 in that situation, including a 3-0 mark when listed as a home underdog (or pick'em) of three points or less. These teams stayed below the total by double-digits when they faced each other here most recently, in February of 2006. I'm expecting tonight's game to be lower-scoring than expected once again with the UNDER improving to 8-2 in Villanova's last 10 home games. *TV Total of the Week
VILLANOVA
Game: Marquette vs. Villanova Game Time: 2/25/2008 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Villanova Reason: I'm playing on VILLANOVA. Two weeks ago, the Wildcats suffered a heart-breaking loss at Georgetown. Tied with less than a second left, Corey Stokes was called for a foul away from the basket, and the Hoyas knocked down the free throws to win the game. A victory at Georgetown would have done wonders for a team "on the bubble," as the Wildcats are. However, the loss was a killer. Off that devastating defeat, it would have been easy for a still relatively young Villanova squad to hang its head. That's not what happened though. The Wildcats went out and dominated back to back opponents (18 point win at St. John's and a 22 point win vs. West Virginia) before defeating the red hot Connecticut Huskies here on Saturday. They're playing at their best right now and I expect them to carry that momentum into this evening's extremely important contest. Of course, the Golden Eagles are also playing very well, with four straight blowout victories of their own. All four of those games came against teams which are currently 500 or worse in conference play though (combined 19-38) including the two road games which came at Seton Hall and St John's. When stepping up to face the Big East's better teams on the road, the Golden Eagles have lost at Notre Dame, Connecticut, Louisville and West Virginia. The fact is that it's hard to win on the road in the Big East, particularly against the league's better teams. Louisville managed to do so (barely) yesterday but they were the only team to do so over the weekend. The home team was a perfect 8-0 in the other eight Big East games from Thursday through Sunday. Note that Marquette guard Dominic James, one of four players to average double-digits and the team-leader in assists, got hurt last game when the huge Rutgers center rolled over on his leg. He's expected to play but can't necessarily be expected to be 100%. The Wildcats, currently listed as very slight underdogs, are a solid 9-4 SU/ATS the last 13 times that they were listed as home underdogs (or pick'em) of three points or less. Look for them to improve on those numbers here.
NBA BASKETBALL
UNDER Bulls/Mavs
Game: Chicago Bulls vs. Dallas Mavericks Game Time: 2/25/2008 8:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Mavericks and Bulls to finish UNDER the total. Including a 110-97 loss to Houston last night, the Bulls have now been involved in three straight high-scoring games. I expect that trend to come to an end this evening. For starters, they've seen the UNDER go 12-8 the last 20 times that they were playing the second of back to back games. They've also seen the UNDER go an impressive 18-7 the past three seasons after having played three straight games which finished above the total. That includes a 4-1 mark when they've been in that situation this season. The Bulls will be facing a Dallas team which has held back to back opponents to just 83 points and which has seen the UNDER go 10-4 its last 14 games, including a 6-1 mark its last seven against teams with a record below 500. The Mavs have been especially stingy at home of late. In their last game here they held Portland to just 76 points and in their previous game here they allowed only 81. Both those games fell below the number by double-digits, bringing the UNDER to 9-4 the last 13 games on this floor. Note that the Mavericks have also seen the UNDER go 14-8-1 in their "non-conference" games this season. They've held 11 of their last 12 guests to double-digits in scoring and the last time they played a home game after playing the previous day (12/27) they combined with the Cavs for only 169 points. With both teams still adjusting to new faces in the lineup and both playing their second game in two nights, I look for tonight's game to be lower scoring than expected once again. *Blue Chip
Ryan NHL
3* Flyers
SportsKingz
MARQUETTE pk (10 UNITS)
GONZAGA -15 (5 UNITS)
Jeffersonsports
GONZAGA-15
Armvin Sports
Saint Marys Ca -12
Winners Edge
LA Clippers + 8.5 , 2 units
Dallas Mavs - 9.5 , 2 units
CBB
Texas + 3.5 , 2 units
Portland U + 15 , 1 unit
Gamblers Data
Marquette -1
Mr A's
San Antonio Spurs - 12
Detroit at Denver Under - 206
Gina
Chicago Bulls (22-33) at Dallas Mavericks (37-19)
Dallas has won 10 straight at home and is 23-3 this season at the American Airlines Center, but just 11-12-3 against the spread on their home court.
The Mavericks have won nine of the last 10 against Chicago at home and will most likely grab another victory against the Bulls tonight, but it won’t be a blowout. Chicago has covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games and six of their last 8 as an underdog. Go with the Bulls to cover, the Mavericks went 3-2 ATS in the last five meetings versus Chicago, but are 1-3-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home.
Chicago Bulls
Washington (26-29) at New Orleans (37-17) New Orleans Hornets - 10
Chicago (22-33) at Dallas (37-19) Chicago Bulls + 9
Ted Sevransky
SD at St. Marys UNDER
REASON FOR PICK: All of San Diego’s success this season has been predicated by their ability to control the pace. The Toreros were able to win at Kentucky, knock off St Mary’s in the first meeting between these two teams and give Gonzaga a real scare last Monday all because of their slow down approach to the game. The Toreros won’t score many quick fast break buckets, utilizing the entire shot clock on the vast majority of their possessions. Nor is San Diego likely to allow St Mary’s to get many easy fast break buckets, playing exceptional transition defense.
The first meeting between these two teams resulted in a 63-55 win for San Diego; a game that went Under the total by 15 points despite a 56% shooting performance from the Toreros. San Diego is unlikely to shoot the ball at that same clip tonight against a St Mary’s squad that has held their last five opponents under 37% from the floor. The Gaels have been an under machine all season; 7-16-1 to the Under this year, including a 9-3 run to the Under in their last dozen games. Kent State slowed down the pace and controlled the game flow in their upset win at St Mary’s over the weekend. Expect a similar slowdown tonight in a game that should finish well Under the total. Take the Under.
Bryan Leonard
Texas at Kansas State Over
Texas is a team that gets a great amount of their play from their starters. In fact, they have the least amount of production from their bench in the country. Therefore when playing a team that forces a high pace the Longhorns struggle defensively.
There have been 10 games this season that Texas has played to a 67 or higher pace. In those games the total points scored averaged 165.4.
Kansas State likes to run as evidenced by their top 30 pace rating. In their 18 home games this season they have played to a pace rating of 67 14 of 18 games. The games in which they did not make the 67 pace rating resulted in total points scored of 110, 129, 128 and 133. Therefore we expect Kansas State to force the tempo and make this a full court game. That means this game should fly over the posted total. PLAY OVER
DOC'S
4 Unit Play. Take Milwaukee -2 ½ over Valparaiso
The Panthers have been in the midst of a brutal road schedule and are ready for some home cooking on Monday. The Crusaders are coming off a dramatic double overtime victory against Miami on Saturday and have not had ample time to recover for tonight contest. The Panthers have already won in Indiana this season and will compete the series sweep tonight U.S. Cellular Arena. Paige Paulson will come up big yet again propelling his squad to victory.