Big Al
At 9:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Portland, as Don Nelson's crew falls into a 119-58 ATS system of mine that plays on certain rested teams vs. non-division foes off back-to-back upset wins. The Trail Blazers pulled off their 2nd straight upset on Friday when they snapped the Lakers long winning streak, and I look for a letdown in Oakland tonight. Take Golden State
Ross Benjamin
Temple @ St. Joseph’s
Play On: St. Joseph’s -7.0
Any away underdog that lost to their current opponent in their only meeting of the season, has a less than .640 winning percentage, is off a home favorite ATS win, their current opponent is off an away favorite SU loss by 11 points or less, and has a win percentage of .650 or less is 0-9 SU and ATS since 1990. The favorite has won these 9 games by an average of 16.0 points per game. Play on St. Joseph’s minus the points as my free selection of the day.
Scott Rickenbach
San Jose SaberCats @ Chicago Rush
PICK: Chicago Rush
REASON FOR PICK: AFL 1* (regular play) Chicago Rush (+) vs San Jose Sabercats @ 9 ET - These teams have battled it out in the conference championship in three of the last four years to see who would win the right to go to the Arena Bowl. As a result, this has certainly developed into a huge rivalry and we have no doubt that Allstate Arena will be rocking tonight for Monday Night Football and the ESPN cameras. Although the Rush lost Bobby Sippio in the offseason, the pick-up of Damian Harrell from Chicago is a big addition. Also, getting veteran QB Shedrick Bonner was a huge pick-up as well. The Rush are very well-coached and now they have a future Hall of Fame quarterback on board and that certainly allows Chicago to open up their playbooks even more this season! The Rush are very confident heading into this season and they are loaded with playmakers on both sides of the ball. Note that the Rush defense has given the Sabercats offense some problems in the past as they force QB Mark Grieb into mistakes. We expect more of the same in this match-up.
Grieb leads a Sabercats team that is looking to repeat as Arena Bowl champions. However, it's always tough when you have the target on your back and every team will be 'gunning' for San Jose this season. Also, the Sabercats got off to a slow start last season and playing Game 1 of 2008 at Chicago and a rockin' Allstate Arena is not exactly the easy opportunity the Cats would have liked to have had to start this season. The Sabercats are very talented and they are well-coached. However, one of their other key strengths is not making many mistakes. That is a key today because the Rush has shown the ability in the past to force some turnovers against the Cats. Chicago has solid passrushing ability and they will be fired up for this home opener against the Champs. With no love lost between these teams we expect a physical game and, in that department, the Rush also rate an edge there. You won't be able to get the Rush at home with this type of line very often. Yes, they're facing the defending champs but the Rush are tough to beat here and they get their season off to a big start here with a 'statement win'. Play Chicago plus the points as a regular selection.
Karl Garrett
New Orleans has been money the last 5 times they have faced the Knicks, winning and covering in ALL 5 meetings, but this is a tough spot for them tonight, as the Hornets come into the Big Apple off a Sunday game at Washington while New York enjoyed an extra day of rest.
The Hornets got wiped up by Washington yesterday, and you know they will want to make amends this Monday night in New York, but I don't think the Knicks are going to comply.
The Knicks may not own as many outright wins as the Hornets, but New York has been cashing in at the ticket window of late, as New York is on a 9-5-1 spread run their last 15 games.
With the Hornets coming into this one on no rest, the G-Man will take the home dog, and look for the Knicks to play this one close.
1* NEW YORK (on a 1* to 5* basis)
Michael Cannon
Let's go against the Mavs again tonight with the Jazz.
Utah has been great at home this year, going 25-3 SU. They've also made their backers a ton of money by going 26-11-1 ATS in their last 38 home contests.
They will be facing a weary Mavericks team that's playing its fourth game in five days.
The Jazz have incredible balance in their scoring, with all five starters reaching double digits in Saturday's 113-92 win at Memphis.
Dallas will have a hard time trying to get up emotionally again after losing a hard fought battle with the Lakers in overtime yesterday.
Take the Jazz minus the points as they grab the home win and cover.
4* UTAH On a 1* to 5* basis
Net Prophet
AFL
San Jose/Chicago UNDER 97'
CBB
Pepperdine +3 over San Francisco
NHL
Boston +115 over Washington
Boston/Washington UNDER 5' -120
Anaheim -135 over Washington
Peter Loshak
The contest inside HP Pavilion tonight offers a double-decker of value. Cash out twice taking the Canadiens and the Under when Montreal heads west to San Jose to meet the Sharks.
On Monday in the NHL, the game between Montreal and San Jose presents two underdog overnight lines that are looking to me like they may have some value – Montreal on the money line at +110, and the Under 5, also at +110.
Canadiens +110 & Under 5 at Sharks
The Canadiens are the top team in the Northeast Division, and they are gearing up for a deep run in the playoffs, yet they decided to trade away their season-long starting goaltender, Cristobal Huet, prior to the trade deadline. This was not an accident, and it shows how much faith the team has in their new starter, 20-year-old rookie Carey Price. Price has certainly not disappointed in his new role, as he has yielded only four goals in his three games – all wins – since taking over the reins as the starter.
San Jose, for their part, is a top team defensively, but they have not fared well at home this year. Despite having a strong overall record, they are only slightly above .500 at home, and I think they will be vulnerable here returning from a long road trip, facing an energized and quality opponent in the Canadiens.
Still, the Sharks’ impressive team defense may well be able to keep Montreal’s scoring to a minimum, which is why I am also looking at the under here. Montreal really shines offensively when they are on a power play, and they can be explosive when facing teams with average defensive capabilities. But San Jose runs a tight and effective ship on the defensive end, and it will not be easy for Montreal to run up the score as they often do against lesser teams.
Adding it all up, I see this as likely to be a low-scoring, intense and competitive game. Getting underdog odds on both the Canadiens to win and the Under looks good to me, so I’ll be on Montreal +110 and Under 5 (+110) on Monday evening.
ROCKY WINNERS CIRCLE
SAN FRANCISCO -3
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Mavs/Jazz UNDER 203
The last time these teams played in Utah, we had a similar situation where the number was set at 203.5 and neither team reached the century mark to cash under bets. After allowing the Kings to score 106 points and the Lakers to score 108 with Kobe going off, look for a much better defensive performance out of the Mavs tonight. 4 of the last 5 games in this series played at Utah have gone under the number. Utah is 10-2 UNDER against Southwest division opponents this season and Dallas is 47-19 UNDER against Northwest division opponents since 1996. Dallas is 23-10 UNDER in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 2 seasons and Utah is 104-67 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
Take the UNDER.
Tony Weston
We start that road to destruction in LaLa Land as the Los Angeles Clippers host the Philadelphia 76ers in a game the Sixers will dominate.
These two teams met not even a month ago in Philly when the Sixers destroyed the Clippers 101-80 as 6 1/2 point favorites.
Since then the Clippers have gone 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS. Over their last five games the Clippers are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS. Over that 5-game stretch Los Angeles has been outscored on average 102.4-85.6.
The Sixers, on the other hand, are 6-3 SU and ATS since last beating the Clippers. Over that 9-game stretch Philadelphia has outscored its opponents by an average score of 101.6-98.3.
Philly is also 3-1 SU and ATS its last four games, three of which have come on the road.
Even though this has been an ugly season for the Sixers, they still find themselves in the playoff race out East. You can hardly say the same about the Clippers.
Take Philly on the road.
3* SIXERS (1* to 5* Scale)
Jake Timlin
In a make up game for an early rain out last month look for the Yellow Jackets to make it 2 straight over what is still a very bad Virginia team despite their recent surge. You see for the Yellow Jackets not only are they looking to make it two straight wins over all after their win over Wake Forest over the weekend, but Tech is looking series sweep after beating the Cavaliers in overtime by 10 on the road. In that first meeting is was the Yellow Jackets who used their advantage in the paint as well as slowing down Singletary who was harassed all game long for a poor shooting game. Well thanks to being at home and still with an advantage down low look for Tech to steam roll over a Virginia team that is making their second trip to Atlanta. All Georgia Tech minus the home chalk!
Matt Rivers
For Monday take the Jazz at home.
Dallas just had the tough overtime loss at Staples against the Lakers and now has an even harder task as playing the Jazz in Salt Lake City is as tough as they come.
Obviously Utah has not been too good on the road but when home they are as money as money could ever be. Jerry Sloan's team is extremely dominant at the Palace and never lose on their home floor. That obviously doesn't mean they will 100% cover the number but this price is cheap enough where a win should be a cover.
Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams, Andrei Kirilenko and the rest of this Utah team is so confident at home that it is beginning to get a little scary for any team they play in the playoffs as right there you are almost looking at three automatic Utah wins.
I'm sure Mark Cuban's Mavs will come with some game because they are an elite team for sure now with Jason Kidd running the show alongside Dirk, Jason Terry, Josh Howard and others but if there was ever a time that a team will run out of gas this is it!
USA Sports Consulting
Utah -6.5
Lockoftheday
TexasTech +19
Wunderdog
Baltimore at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Baltimore +118
The Orioles' bats boomed for 11 runs yesterday against the Nationals and have now produced 6+ runs a game so far this spring. The Dodgers' bats have not come around yet as they have plated just three runs a game thus far. The O's send Brian Burres to the mound to face off with Chad Billingsley. We like the run-producing O's lineup to pick up their fourth win of the spring.
Game: Tampa Bay at Detroit
Pick: Tampa Bay +130
Tigers' pitchers have done well thus far, but the bats have not gotten it going yet, as they are producing just three runs a game. The Rays' bats have been alive scoring at least five in each game - a number the Tigers haven't reached all spring. Jeremy Bonderman gets the start for the Tigers against Matt Garza for the Rays. We like the way the Rays are swinging the bats early and will ride them here.
LT Profits
Pittsburgh +5.5
The Pittsburgh Panthers beat the West Virginia Mountaineers at the buzzer 55-54 when they met in Pittsburgh a month ago, and we look for another similarly tight game at Morgantown this evening.
That win marked the Panthers’ fourth straight victory in this head-to-head series, with two of those victories coming here in West Virginia. Now granted, Pittsburgh is much better at home than on the road this season, but it is not as if they are totally incapable on the road, as they are 6-6 ATS away from home and they are coming off of an exhilarating come-from-behind victory at Syracuse on Saturday.
Now West Virginia is 20-9 on the year, but the Mounties rely heavily on their perimeter shooting, and Pittsburgh has already proven they can defend that well, limiting the Mountaineers to just 35.8 percent from the floor in that last meeting. We have already seen what happens to West Virginia when their shots are not falling, even at home where they were embarrassed 62-39 by Cincinnati earlier this year.
Now we do not expect the Mountaineers to shoot 35.8 percent again, but we do think that the stiff Pittsburgh defense will make enough stops to take this game down to the wire again.
Pittsburgh +5.5
Philadelphia 76ers @ Los Angeles Clippers u188.5
The Los Angeles Clippers have had trouble scoring points all year and the Philadelphia 76ers have tended to play at the pace of their opposition, which sets up nicely for an Under this evening.
The Clippers are averaging just 93.9 points per game overall this season, and they have actually been slightly worse here at home where they average 92.8 points. Not surprisingly, the Under is 35-22 in all Clippers games this season, including 20-11 at home and 8-2 in their last 10 games overall. Worse yet, their offense has actually gotten worse lately, as they are averaging a pathetic 85.6 points over the last five games.
Now the Sixers are coming off of a 119-114 upset of the Suns at Phoenix, but that score had a lit more to do with the Phoenix pace than the ability of the Philadelphia offense, and besides the 76ers can be expected to have a letdown tonight after such a big win. Expect them to return to their normal level here, and the Sixers are averaging 94.5 points per road contest on the year.
Finally, the Under is 3-1 in the last four head-to-head meetings including their encounter in Philadelphia last month where the clubs combined for 181 points. They may not even reach that total tonight the way the Clippers are shooting right now.
76ers, Clippers Under 188.5