CAPPERS ACCESS
W. Virginia
Santa Clara
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Georgia Tech -4.5
Virginia's true colors have shown in ACC play where the Cavs are just 3-10 this season. They have really struggled on the road winning only 3 of 11 road contests. Georgia Tech is 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS in the last 9 home meetings against the Cavs. The Yellow Jackets are an even more impressive 15-4 SU and 16-3 ATS in all games against Virginia since 1997. Georgia Tech won by 10 on the road at Virginia in late January and I have no reason to believe that the Jackets can't repeat that performance at home tonight. Virginia is 9-25 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997, is 0-6 ATS when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons, and just 8-21 ATS in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1997. Tech is 16-6 ATS in all home games over the last 2 seasons. Take the Jackets here.
Wunderdog
Saint Mary's at Portland
Pick: Saint Mary's -13
The Gaels lost at Gonzaga on Saturday, and now need to win the conference tournament, or gain an at large bid. That means there is no fooling around with this game, as each additional win just builds the resume.Portland has been a disaster vs the good teams on their schedule. They have met Gonzaga twice, St. Mary's, BYU, and Oregon. The results aren't pretty. They have lost all 5 ATS, and have come no closer than 22! They have allowed 51.8% shooting, and 40% from 3 in these games, as well as getting torched on the boards 38.2-25.8, or by nearly 13 a game. They have shot just 35.5% and 25.8% from 3. The Pilots have managed just 2 covers in their last 12 games, and have basically packed it in. St.Mary's wins here by 20+.
John Ryan
Texas Tech vs. Kansas
Play: UNDER
Ai Simulator 3* graded play UNDER Texas Tech/Kansas – AiS shows a 73% probability that 145 or fewer points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 67-33 UNDER since 1997. Play under with road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points that are off an upset win over a conference rival and were installed as a home dog. Texas Tech does not look to shoot three’s as their first offensive option. Note that Kansas is 10-0 UNDER versus teams who attempt 14 or less 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. TT was whistled for a large amount of fouls in their last game against Texas and this puts them into a very strong UNDER role for this game. Note that TT is 6-0 UNDER in road games after a game where their opponent was called for 27 or more fouls over the last 3 seasons. Under wins the money.
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on 76ers/Clippers UNDER 188
The Clippers are 9-0 UNDER in home games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, 8-1 UNDER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season, and 17-8 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The Clipps are 15-3 UNDER off a home loss this season and 9-0 UNDER after 4 or more consecutive losses this season and 9-0 UNDER after a game where they made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse this season. The Clippers have been an UNDERS machine at 8-1-1 UNDER in their last 10 games. We'll follow the numbers to a winner here.
Matty O'Shea
PICK: Philadelphia 76ers -3
King Creole
Hornets/Knicks UNDER 195.5
Larry Ness
Today's Pick: UTAH JAZZ
PF Boozer (21.4-10.8) and PG Williams (19.1-9.9 APG) are Utah's two best players but the addition of shooting guard Kyle Korver (9.9) on Dec 29, was the spark that turned around the season for the Jazz. Utah beat Portland at home on Dec 31, with Korver making his first appearance in a Jazz uniform (18 minutes / 11 points). The win ended Portland's 13-game winning streak and was the start of the 22-6 run Utah will take into tonight's home game with the Mavs. It includes a 15-game home winning streak in which Utah has gone 11-4 ATS. The Mavs have been able to match Utah's 25-3 home mark but after going 31-10 on the road last year, Dallas is just 14-18 SU on the road this year, after yesterday's 108-104 loss in overtime to the Lakers in LA. I'm of the belief, that like with the Suns acquiring Shaq, the Mavs didn't improve their team by getting Kidd. In his 14th season, Kidd is shooting a career-low 37.7 percent from the floor and his current average of 11.3 PPG would be the second-lowest season average of his career. Utah and Dallas have split the first two meetings this season with each winning at home. Lay the points with the Jazz.
Cajun Sports
Game:Pittsburgh Panthers vs West Virginia Mountaineers
Rating: TWO-Star
Selection: WEST VIRGINIA -5.5
Analysis: This contest matches two Big East 20 game winners looking to improve their NCAA Tourney position. Both teams having played games on the road on Saturday means the “Under” is always worth a look. Pitt is coming in off a come from behind win over the Orange in the Carrier Dome on Saturday. The Panthers were down by 11 points with less than four minutes to play and went on a 9-0 run to get the 82 to 77 win. West Virginia lost on Saturday at UCONN as a 3.5 point road underdog 79 to 71. In this match up we expect the Mounties to get a little revenge for a tough one point loss in the Steel City to these Panthers back on February 7th, 55 to 54 as a 3 point road underdog. There is also technical support for our selection and in comes in the form of West Virginia is a perfect 4-0 both straight up and against the number in their last four home games of the season and also a perfect 4-0 against the number when installed as a last home game favorite facing winning teams and seeking revenge. The fact that the Panthers are coming in off a game versus Syracuse also helps on the technical side as they are a money burning 1-7 against the number as an underdog in this situation. We have a road team coming off an emotional come from behind win and a home team off a road loss, we are backing the host here as they look to avenge an earlier loss and have technical support on their side. One final technical note we have a system that tells us to Play On CBB home teams as a favorite or pick revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, in a game involving two teams with a winning percentage of 60% to 80% on the year, 94-52 ATS the last three seasons.
FERRINGO
1.5-Unit Play. First Half: Take Santa Clara (+8.5) over Gonzaga
1-Unit Play. Take #719 Santa Clara (+15) over Gonzaga
The top tier of the WCC has been very competitive within itself and I expect a tightly played game between these two rivals. Gonzaga may come out in a little bit of a funk after basically winning their Super Bowl on Saturday by crushing St. Mary's at home. I don't expect them to come out guns blazing against Santa Clara's deliberate style. The Broncos were awful for a half against Portland, but they started to play in the last eight minutes and even though they lost I do expect that to carryover a bit. Gonzaga's bigs are soft on the interior and I think John Bryant can continue his solid play (23 ppg in L5). If Santa Clara can hit anything from the outside (and they are shooting a stellar 41.7 percent from 3-point land on the road and 41.9 percent from deep in their L5 overall) then I think they can hang around here.
DOC'S
4 Unit Play. #708 Take West Virginia -5 ½ over Pittsburgh
Big Monday starts in Big East land when the Panthers are set to invade Morgantown, as the Backyard Brawl is renewed. Both teams are sitting on the tournament bubble but we will side with the home squad tonight, as the Mountaineers are 12-2 when playing at the Coliseum. Pittsburgh won on a three point shot at the buzzer and revenge will be best served on the field.
4 Unit Play. #712 Take Utah State -8 ½ over Fresno State
This line should be much higher since the Aggies have yet to lose a game in Logan this season and the Bulldogs are just 2-11 when playing outside of Fresno. Utah State has already beaten the Bulldogs in Fresno and will complete the season series sweep on Monday. The Aggies sit just one game out of first place in the WAC and this will likely be a one bid conference this year so it is very important to secure the top seed come conference tournament time. This game will get ugly earlier and the Aggies will cruise to a much needed victory.
4 Unit Play. #726 Take Georgia Tech -4 ½ over Virginia
This is a make-up game from February and this does not bode well for the Hokies, who live and die based on the play of Sean Singletary. Both of these teams will be lucky to make the NIT tournament, but Tech has a much better conference record leading the Cavaliers but two games in the standings. Tech is coming off an 8-point victory over Wake Forest and will follow that up with a victory against another bad team on Monday.
SportsKingz
NBA
PHILLY -2 (10 UNITS)
CBB
WEBER ST. -6 (5 UNITS)
ST. MARYS -13 (5 UNITS)
Rockdeman Dog Of The Day
Santa Clara
POINTWISE
COLLEGE
MONDAY, MARCH 3 SCORE
WEST VIRGINIA 79 - Pittsburgh 67 (ESPN)
KANSAS 95 - Texas Tech 66 (ESPN)
UTAH STATE 82 - Fresno State 68
Pepperdine 81 - SAN FRANCISCO 67
St Marys 77 - PORTLAND 55
SAN DIEGO 78 - Loyola-Marymount 48 (ESPNU)
GONZAGA 90 - Santa Clara 70 (ESPN2)
BEST BETS: WEST VIRGINIA, UTAH STATE, PEPPERDINE
NBA
New Orleans Hornets 103 - NEW YORK KNICKS 95
UTAH JAZZ 104 - Dallas Mavericks 99 (NBA)
Philadelphia 76ers 96 - L.A. CLIPPERS 90
BEST BETS: PHILADELPHIA
Wolkosky Milan
10* DAL/UTA UNDER 202½
10* PHI/LAC OVER 188
Ben Burns
Game: Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz
Prediction: Utah Jazz
Reason: At first glance, this line seems a little on the high side. After all, the Mavs may have slipped to fourth in the Southwest but they're still one of the top teams in the league. However, a closer look reveals that they've struggled on the road all season (14-18 SU/ATS) and that they're in an extremely difficult scheduling spot here. While the Jazz had yesterday off, the Mavs were involved in a hard-fought nationally televised battle with the Lakers. Note that the Mavs are 0-3-1 ATS the last past four times that they played the second of back to back games and 3-8-1 ATS their last 12 in that situation. This isn't just your typical back to back spot though. For starters, yesterday's game went to overtime. More importantly, this will also mark the Mavs' fourth game in the past five days, all four in different cities. That's as gruelling as it gets in the NBA and tonight they'll be playing at one of the league's toughest venues. Indeed, the Jazz have yet to lose here in 2008, recording 15 straight wins here since Boston beat them back in late December. Note that the Jazz were 10-5 ATS during that stretch and that 13 of the 15 victories came by a minimum of six points. Including a nine point win here back in December, the Jazz are also a healthy 8-2 ATS the last 10 times they were a host in this series. They should have the "fresher legs" and I look for them to continue their home winning streak for another night.
Dave Price
NBA Philadelphia vs. Los Angeles
Take Under
1 Unit on 76ers/Clippers UNDER 188 The Clippers are 9-0 UNDER in home games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, 8-1 UNDER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season, and 17-8 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The Clipps are 15-3 UNDER off a home loss this season and 9-0 UNDER after 4 or more consecutive losses this season and 9-0 UNDER after a game where they made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse this season. The Clippers have been an UNDERS machine at 8-1-1 UNDER in their last 10 games. We'll follow the numbers to a winner here.