Monday's FREE data, systems and trends in the NBA from King Creole Sports:
Despite an overall WINNING week in College Basketball and the NBA for KING CREOLE.... we have a bad taste in our mouths off a Saturday in which we went 0-3 in college hoops. For the customers who purchased our selections on Saturday, we apologize. When you 'live by the SYSTEM'.... you also 'die by the SYSTEM'. As a result, all of the pertinent data and systems for tonight's abbreviated NBA action is ON the HOUSE. We call it 'Handicapping with a CONSCIENCE'. Even though we went 1-0 on Monday... 1-0 on Tuesday... 1-0 on Wednesday... and 1-0 on Thursday, here is tonight's applicable data. We;ll let the reader determine which Systems are the most pertinent.
1-11 O/U TY: NBA road teams with NO rest off a road OVERTIME game (DALLAS).
10-1 ATS since Feb. 1: NBA Monday road teams with NO rest (DALLAS / NEW ORL).... and a PERFECT 0-7 O/U as road favs (NEW ORL).
0-6 O/U TY: NBA teams off a DD road loss... DD home win... and DD home win (NEW ORL).
3-19 O/U since Dec: NBA road teams with 1+ rest off a road win in which they shot 50% or better (PHILLY). These teams have also gone 9-0 ATS since Feb. 1.
0-9 O/U since Dec. 1: NBA home dogs with 1- rest off a SU dog loss in whwich they NEVER had the lead (LAC).
9-1 ATS and 1-9 O/U since Feb. 1: NBA road favs with 1- rest off a SU win in which they scored 15% or less of their points from the free throw line (PHILLY).
2-8 ATS TY: NBA road favs in a 0/1 rest situation vs (NEW ORL) vs an opponent off BB SU losses (NY). This has gone a PERFECT 0-4 ATS TY if the road fav has a current W/L percentage of .666 > (NEW ORL).
13-3 ATS TY: NBA teams off a SU road loss to the Orlando Magic (NY)
1-7 ATS since Feb. 1: NBA teams off a SU road loss with 15 < assists (LAC).
Based on the data, I think your two best plays are probably the UNDER in the New Orleans/New York game.... and the UNDER in the LA Clippers/Philadelphia game. But we'll leave the final decision up to YOU!
Rocketman
Dallas @ Utah
Play On: 1* Utah -6 1/2
Dallas is 1-5 ATS this year after 3 or more consecutive overs. Utah is 7-1 ATS this year when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season. Utah is 25-3 SU at home this year where they are scoring 107 points per game this year. Utah is scoring 105.4 points per game overall this season. Mavericks are 15-37-3 ATS in their last 55 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Mavericks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Monday games. Mavericks are 11-28-3 ATS in their last 42 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Mavericks are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Mavericks are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 0 days rest. Mavericks are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Mavericks are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win. Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Monday games. Jazz are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest. Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Jazz are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Jazz are 26-9-1 ATS in their last 36 games as a home favorite. Jazz are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs. Western Conference. Jazz are 26-11-1 ATS in their last 38 home games. Jazz are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Home team is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings. Mavericks are 0-4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Utah. We'll recommend a small play on Utah tonight
Mike Rose
Chicago Rush
The defending ArenaBowl Champion San Jose Sabercats kick their 2008 campaign off with a trip to the “Windy City” to take on the Chicago Rush. These clubs despise one another, as both have been responsible for ending each teams respective seasons on a number of occasions. The battles that have taken place between these two franchises have turned this rivalry into one of the most heated feuds in the league.
In this new rivalry, the Sabercats and Rush have battled in the postseason three out of the last four years with the winner advancing to the ArenaBowl and winning it. They renew this feud in the culmination of the first week of 2008 AFL action. It will mark the first time in league history that the previous two ArenaBowl champions will play each other to kickoff a season.
With so much history between these two teams, these two coaches and two quarterbacks; this game is poised to be another historic one.
The Sabercats have brought the bulk of last years title team back as they look to repeat as ArenaBowl Champs for the first time since Tampa bay achieved the feat back in 1995 and 1996.
This game will pit two of the league’s all-time great passers when SJ’s Mark Grieb and Chicago’s Sherdrick Bonner go head-to-head for the 18th time, but the first time for Bonner in Rush silver and blue – he signed with Chicago in the off season. In the previous 17 match-ups, Grieb and the Sabercats are 11-6. Grieb has tossed 98 TDs to just five interceptions, while Bonner has thrown 95 scores with eight picks. Both quarterbacks currently rank in the top six in every passing category.
This will be the tenth overall game between these two indoor titans. The Sabercats won the first four games, while the Rush won the next four before San Jose topped Chicago 61-49 last season in the American Conference championship game. This has been an incredibly tight played series as the Sabercats hold a slight 55-51 advantage throughout their nine meetings. Both Darren Arbet and Mike Hohensee have been each club’s respective coaches for both teams throughout this series.
Bottom line, San Jose smashed Chicago’s hopes of repeating as ArenaBowl champs last season and that won’t sit well with this club. Even though the Rush retooled their offense, they still boast one of the best defensive units in the league. The Sabercats are a fantastic team, but they’re a year older and they’ve had trouble winning in this venue evidenced by the fact that they’ve lost each of their last three visits including last years 48-45 defeat. The opening line was right, Chicago should be a short home chalk in this spot so grab the Rush at plus points and enjoy ESPN2’s inaugural telecast of the season…..
Michael Cannon
25 Dime –
PITT
Take the points with Pitt tonight when they travel to take on West Virginia.
The Mountaineers have revenge motive for their loss to the Panthers on February 7, when Ronald Ramon hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer in Pitt’s 55-54 win.
Whether or not they accomplish that tonight is up for debate, but even if they do I can’t see them covering this number.
Pitt had a huge character game in Saturday’s 82-77 win at Syracuse. The Panthers trailed by 11 with three and a half minutes to play, but went on an 18-2 run to secure the improbable win.
The Panthers didn’t play well defensively at all, yet found a way to win the game. For that reason I love Pitt’s chances here tonight because rarely will you see them play two bad defensive games in a row.
Pitt matches up well with West Virginia, mainly because the Mountaineers are still pretty much a perimeter team. The Panthers can pound the ball inside to DeJuan Blair or let Sam Young drive the lane and the Mountaineers are pretty much helpless to stop it.
West Virginia can be deadly if they are hitting their outside shots, but after Pitt’s sloppy play against Syracuse I fully expect the Panthers to come in determined tonight.
Pitt is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 Monday games and 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 meetings with West Virginia.
Take the points with the Panthers as they stay within the number.
10 Dime –
ST. MARY’S
Lay the big number with St. Mary’s tonight when they travel to take on Portland.
St. Mary’s has absolutely destroyed Portland in the last two meetings, winning by an average margin of 38.5 ppg.
Portland can’t come close to matching the Gaels depth or athleticism, and that’s doubly true if top scorer Nik Raivio can’t go because of his knee injury.
St. Mary’s is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 Monday games while Portland is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight.
The Pilots are also just 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine home games and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 overall.
Take St. Mary’s as the big road chalk as they grab the win and cover
Lou Diamond
St Marys @ Portland
Take "Under"
Go 3-0 today for only $20! St. Mary's Under is 4-1 in Gaels last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Under is 4-1 in Gaels last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Under is 8-3 in Gaels last 11 overall. Under is 5-2 in Gaels last 7 games following a S.U. loss. Under is 10-4 in Gaels last 14 vs. West Coast. Under is 7-3-1 in Gaels last 11 road games. Portland Under is 6-0 in Pilots last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Under is 7-0 in Pilots last 7 Monday games. Under is 4-1 in Pilots last 5 games following a S.U. win. Under is 6-2 in Pilots last 8 home games. Under is 9-3 in Pilots last 12 overall. Under is 9-3 in Pilots last 12 vs. West Coast. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
ROOT
Chairman - W. VIRGINIA
Millionaire - KANSAS
Money Maker - UTAH JAZZ
Larry Ness' TV Game of the Week-CBB
My 15* play is on West Va at 7:00 ET. Both Pitt and West Va have pretty solid at-large credentials so this game is more about bragging rights. It's been a tough season for Pitt, which first lost swingman Mike Cook (10.4) to a season-ending injury in mid-December and then the VERY next game, lost PG Fields (10.9-3.6-5.2) to an injury as well. Fields wound up missing 12 games but has returned for the last five. Pitt lost the first three games with him back in the lineup before winning the last two. Fields is slowing rounding back into shape, averaging 8.4 PPG since his return. Pitt's 6-6 junior forward Young (18.2-6.5) and 6-7 freshman Blair (12.0-9.5) have been the key components to the team's success this year. Young had averaged just 7.5 PPG in his first two seasons, before developing into one of the Big East's best small forwards this year. Blair is just 6-7 but he's huge (don't believe that listed weight of just 265!) and is averaging as many rebounds per game as the departed 7-0 Gray did last season. Senior guards Benjamin (9.6) and Ramon (8.0-3.9 APG) have also done nice jobs, especially when both Cook and Fields were sidelined. Pitt's a tough team and head coach Jamie Dixon has averaged 26 wins per season in his first four years (Pitt's at 21 this year, so he's likely to match or top that average this season). However, winning here in Morgantown, in the Mountaineers final home game will be a tough assignment. Bob Huggins (over 600 career wins) has made his first year coaching at his alma mater a successful one. He inherited a team with three starters returning from a 27-win season in which West Virginia won the NIT. Big guard Ruoff (14.0-3.3-3.1) starts alongside of PG Nichols (11.1-3.5-3.5) in the backcourt, with the 6-8 Alexander (15.1-6.0) and the 6-7 Butler (12.3-5.9) flanking the 7-0 Smalligan (2.5-2.0) up front. Smalligan does not play much (or do much either), as two 6-7 players, Smith (5.7-3.9) and Flowers (5.2-2.7) both come off the bench to contribute in the frontcourt. Mazulla (6.1) adds depth in the backcourt. West Va lost at Pitt on Feb 7 by just one point, 55-54. In that game, forwards Alexander and Butler shot a combined 3-of-20 from the floor, while Ruoff played just 17 minutes, taking just ONE shot! Also, Ruoff, an 82 percent free-throw shooter, missed one of two with nine seconds remaining to prevent West Virginia from taking a three-point lead. Pitt won the game as Ramon barely got off the winning 3-pointer as time expired! The Mountaineers were only 7-of-17 from the line, far below their season mark of 67.6 percent. West Va has lost just twice at home this year, in back-to-back games. On Jan 26, Georgetown's Sapp made a three-pointer with six seconds remaining to nip the Mountaineers 58-57. Then, four days later, Cincinnati held West Virginia to the worst shooting night in school history (West Va was just 10-of-50), beating the Mountaineers 62-39! Expect West Va to play very well in its final home game. TV Game of the Week 15* West Va.
PPP
3* Jazz
3* Pittsburgh
3* Texas Tech
3* Santa Clara
Scott Delaney
10♦ KANSAS
10♦ ST. MARY'S
Dominic David
4* Sixers
2* Gonzaga
Ethan Law
DALLAS (39-21) Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz UTAH (38-22)
PLAY 1* UNIT ON UTAH -6.5
FRESNO ST (13-16) Fresno State Bulldogs at Utah State Aggies UTAH ST (20-9)
PLAY 1* UNIT ON UTAH STATE -9
Black Magic Sports
5 Unit Black Magic CBB TOTY on Gonzaga/Santa Clara OVER 127.5
The OVER is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings between Gonzaga and Santa Clara. This amazing trend cannot be ignored, especially with the ridiculously low total the lines makers have set here. 8 straight meetings between these teams have resulted in a combined score of 145 points or more. The lines makers are so far off here that we almost have to take a second and just laugh about it. This is one of the easiest cashes you will have all year long. Gonzaga is 9-0 OVER versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of less than 42% after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Gonzaga is 10-1 OVER versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games over the last 2 seasons. These 3 Totals System combine for a deadly 30-2 Totals System that cannot miss. Cash in with the OVER 127.5 points.
Scott Delaney
10♦ KANSAS - The bubble has to burst at some point, and though Tech is on a nice little 3-1 run both SU and ATS, I like Kansas to demoralize this team tonight. Especially since this is a revenge situation from last season, when the Raiders earned the win and cover as a 4-1/2 point underdog at home last season. Kansas is the much better team in this contest, there’s no getting around it, and with how well this team performs at home, I can’t imagine this being less than a 25-point game. The last five meetings between the two in Lawrence have been by 34, 19, 40, 27 and 25-point margins. That’s a 29-point average … need I say more?
10♦ ST. MARY'S - St. Mary’s has to be pissed, right? The Gaels have been the team out of the West Coast Conference ranked for most of the season, and the team that put everyone on alert early on, that it would be making a run for the WCC title – not Gonzaga. Either no one told the Bulldogs, or they weren’t listening. Gonzaga took care of St. Mary’s Saturday night, and now it looks as if it’ll be settling for the No. 2 slot in the tournament. That being said, this angry group of Gaels that has reeled off five straight spread wins as a favorite of 13 or more points and that is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 as a road favorite will be unstoppable tonight in Portland. The Pilots are terrible this season, and come in mired in ATS skids of 2-10 overall, 1-8 at home and 0-7 at home against teams that win on the road. Lay it with St. Mary’s.
GOLD SHEET LATE TELEPHONE SERVICE plays
COLLEGE HOOPS
UTAH STATE (-8 1/2)over Fresno State
PEPPERDINE (+4) over San Francisco
VIRGINIA (+5) over Georgia Tech
NBA
PHILADELPHIA (-2 1/2) over L.A. Clippers
Sportscapping
76ers - 2.5
Steve Janus
Clippers + 3
Rocco Vincintore
St Mary's -12.5
Spritzer
tko espn gow.......................west virg
3 star.....................sac st
tko........................sixers
Cokin
fat man plays..........kansas over 46, senators
3 star.........................west virg
under the hat......................jazz
Feist
island source....................west virg
total....................................kansas over
inner circle............................virg
5 star............................pepperdine
total..................ny over, mavs under
platinum............................hornets
5 star gow............................sixers
INDIAN COWBOY
West Virginia -5.5 (POD)
No one likes to lose on a buzzer beater on the road in particular, and this is certainly the case in Big East play where every game is vital and crucial. The Mountaineers lost a tough one on the road at Pittsburgh as Ramon hit a clutch 3 as the buzzer sounded that sent some West Virginia players on the ground in disgust and disbeleif. Thus, we get West Virginia in a great spot today. This team is furious from their loss on the road to Uconn by about 7 or 8 points, they have dominated at home of late beating Providence, St. Johns and Seton Hall. This game is very indicative of when WVU lost to Villanova if you remember by a final score of 56-78 and then this team came back home to beat Providence 80-53. I'm not saying they will beat Pitt by that margin, but what I am saying is that Pitt was very fortunate to win at Syracuse and I'm glad they did, which made this line a bit better. This team was down by double-digits with 4 minutes remaining and the 'Cuse team just fell apart. Heck, I almost faded this Pitt team on the road at 'Cuse but laid off so there is no reason why I wouldn't fade them here against West Virginia with the revenge the Mountaineers have from losing 54-55. I want you to take a look at when Pitt plays some of the better teams in the Big East on the road: Losing to Marquette by 18, Notre Dame by 12 on the road and Uconn by 7 on the road. I think WVU gets it done from start to finis here. The Panthers are 1-5 ATS when facing a team with a winning % of 60% or greater meaning they are struggling against the better teams in the league and West Virginia is 4-1-1 ATS following a straight up loss - they favorite is also 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.