BEN BURNS
NBA BASKETBALL
76ERS
Game: Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers Game
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers Reason: I'm taking the points with PHILADELPHIA. After they're terrific start to the season, its always relatively easy to make a case for betting on Boston. However, while the Celts have covered a few recently, they haven't been a profitable team over the past few weeks. In fact, during that stretch, they're just 5-6 at the betting window. Conversely, the 76ers are on a highly profitable 14-4 ATS run, including a 4-0 SU/ATS mark their past four games. Yes, they are coming off a game yesterday. However, that was an afternoon game at Milwaukee, so they had plenty of time to get home and today still marks just their fifth game through the first 10 days of March, so it's not like they are playing their fourth game in five days or anything like that. Additionally, the 76ers seem to love playing the second of back to back games. Indeed, while many teams struggle in that situation, the 76'ers have thrived, going a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS the last seven times they played their second game in two days. That includes outright victories over the likes of Houston, Toronto and Phoenix. Looking back further and we find the 76ers at a highly impressive 12-1 ATS the last 13 times that they played the second of back to back games. Looking back still further shows them at 37-19-2 ATS in that situation the past three seasons. Clearly, when playing the second of back to back games, "fatigue" hasn't been an issue for this "blue-collar" team. Tonight's game means a lot to Philadelphia. Not only are the 76'ers battling for their playoff lives, but they're also playing with "double-revenge" from a pair of earlier losses. The 76'ers held the lead at halftime in both those games and they're playing better now than they have all season. They've won eight straight at the Wachovia Center, winning by an average of nearly 20 points per game. Look for them to put together a "complete game," improving to 4-0 ATS the last four times they were listed as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. *Best Bet
UNDER spurs/nuggets
Game: Denver Nuggets vs. San Antonio Spurs
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Nuggets and Spurs to finish UNDER the total. The Nuggets come off three consecutive games which finished above the number. While that has helped to keep tonight's total generously high, its worth noting that the Nuggets had seen the UNDER go 2-1-1 their previous four games AND that they've also seen the UNDER go 4-1 on the season after having played three consecutive games which finished over the number. Yes, these teams did combine for 205 points at Denver a few nights ago. However, the previous meeting (also at Denver) produced just 157 combined points, staying below the number by more than 40. Looking at the games here at San Antonio and we find that the UNDER is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times that the Nuggets traveled here. All seven of those games produced less than 195 combined points and they averaged a mere 179.9. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a highly profitable 11-1 the last 12 series meetings here with ALL 12 of those games producing 193 combined points or less. San Antonio played a very low-scoring game (94-87 loss) against the normally high-scoring Suns yesterday. That game finished below the number by more than 20 points. That brought the UNDER to 4-2 their last six games, none of those producing more than 205 combined points. The defending champs have now seen the UNDER go 21-8-1 (72%) the last 30 times they faced a team with a winning record. The Spurs were also playing the second of back to back games for Friday's meeting at Denver. While that game did creep above the number, the UNDER remains a profitable 5-1 the last six times that they played the second of back to back games. Prior to the Denver meeting, the previous five (back to back) games had combined scores of 176, 181, 162, 173 and 179. Look for tonight's game to be lower-scoring than expected once again with the UNDER improving to 14-7 the last 21 times the Spurs were favored by eight points or less. *nba total of the week
HOCKEY
UNDER Kings/Canucks
Game: Vancouver Canucks vs. Los Angeles Kings
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Kings and Canucks to finish UNDER the total. These teams have played a trio of relatively high-scoring games against each other this season. I'm expecting a significantly lower-scoring game this evening though. For starters, the Canucks haven't allowed more than two goals in any of their last three games. Looking back further and we find that they've allowed three goals or less in nine of their last 10 games, allowing four in the 'other' game. Seven of their last nine games have finished with five combined goals or less. Meanwhile, the Kings haven't scored more than two goals in any of their last five games, seeing three of their last four stay below the number. The Canucks won their last game by a score of 4-2. That's worth noting as we find the UNDER at 32-16-8 the past three seasons when they were coming off a win by two goals or more, including a 7-3-5 mark this season. Additionally, they've seen the UNDER go a profitable 22-9 (71%) the past three seasons when playing a road game with an over/under line of 5.5. Look for tonight's final score to be lower-scoring than expected once again.
PASSING COLLEGE BASKETBALL TODAY
Purelock
DENVER @ SAN ANTONIO
PLAY ON: SAN ANTONIO (-) PTS
Paid Plays
PORTLAND @ CLEVELAND
PLAY ON: PORTLAND (+) PTS
LA CLIPPERS @ MIAMI
PLAY ON: LA CLIPPERS (+) PTS
NEW YORK @ DALLAS
PLAY ON: DALLAS (-) PTS
The Miller Group
Los Angeles Clippers @ Miami Heat
PICK: Los Angeles Clippers
REASON FOR PICK: With Dwyane Wade now shut down for the remainder of the season, wins are going to be few and far between the rest of the way. As if they weren't already.
We'll grab the Clippers in this spot as they hit the road following an embarrassing home loss against the T'Wolves on Saturday. Look for them to be highly motivated to grab a win on Monday night.
It's important to note that the Clippers haven't been all that bad on the road of late, going 3-4 SU in their last seven opportunities. Three of those four losses came against the likes of the Celtics, Nuggets, and Lakers, and the other came at the hands of a red hot 76ers squad. The cupboard isn't bare by any means, and we believe they have enough to get it done against a severely undermanned Heat squad.
We don't need to tell you how bad the Heat have been this season, and now they receive the news that D-Wade is done for the year. This is just a tough spot for them to get motivated. Even head coach Pat Riley has been in and out, missing games for scouting purposes. We're not convinced that Shawn Marion and Ricky Davis can carry the entire load on this night.
The road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings in this series with the Heat winning in L.A. earlier this season. Look for the Clippers to return the favor in a big way tonight. Take Los Angeles
Reply With Quote
WILL SYKES
ATLANTA vs ORLANDO
SYKE-O-ANALYSIS: Orlando just finished playing the Warriors a couple of days back, where their O/U line was set at 230 and really had not shot at going over after the first quarter. But what I saw in that game was that the Magic are capable of scoring and shooting at a high percentage. In that first quarter of that Golden State/Orlando game, the Magic just would not miss, and were shooting above 60% and what's odd was that it looked natural for them and that they do shoot like that often. The last time Atlanta and Orlando squared off they went way under the 194 total, and now the total is set at 208? How odd is that? This looks like a big Skye out by the lines makers. But no way I'm falling for this psych out. As I have strong support where the OVER is 8-0 in Hawks last 8 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Also supported by a never lost 13-0 OVER that I refuse to release. Take this play and rate it an nice 3* and don't get psyched by those odds makers into taking the easy under bait, Just stick with Sykes and you won't be psyched.
ATLANTA/ORLANDO OVER 208
Wolkosky Milan
10* CLEVELAND -5½
10* SAN ANTONIO -7
10* DALLAS -13
10* ATL/ORL UNDER 208
10* DEN/SAS UNDER 203
Drew Gordon
1. 300,000* 76ers
2. 50,000* William & Mary
3. 50,000* Western Kentucky
1. 76ers- While the public jumps all over what appears to be a favorable line for the Celtics, sharp bettors know not to underestimate a 76ers squad that's been money at home, going 9-1 SU & 10-0 ATS over their last 10 at the Wachovia Center!
Sorry-Celtics backers, but the fact of the matter remains, Philly has been excellent at home, and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the 76ers won outright here, but let me explain further...
76ers are perfect example of a team who's found their rhythm... Take for example their last home game, a 117-83 rout of the Bucks, where 7 Philly players scored in double figures! Andre Iguodala scored 18 points, but it was Samuel Dalembert who lead the team with 22 points and 13 boards! In other words, its a complete team effort and the results are apparent: 9-1 SU & 10-0 ATS over their last 10 home games speaks for itself!
I know a lot of critics are pointing to the last meeting between these two teams, a 116-89 Celtics blowout win at the Garden. But if you actually saw the game, you know that contest was closer than the final score. Philly trailed by only 5 points after 3 quarters (after leading at halftime), when Boston dropped 38 points in the 4th quarter, thanks in large part to an incredible barrage of 3-pointers. This time around the 76ers are not only at home, playing much better basketball, but also facing a Celtics team which hasn't been nearly as good ATS of late.
Finally, its hard to ignore the 76ers red-hot play of late, averaging a scorching 111 ppg on 53% shooting (43% from 3-point) over their last 5 games! They've been torching defenses left and right, and while the Celtics D is formidable, they're not nearly as good on the road. Philly is one of the hottest teams in the East, playing in a place they've covered 10 straight times... Play here is squarely on the 76ers.
Take the 76ers plus the points over the Celtics as your top-rated play of the day.
2. William & Mary- As much as I loved George Mason last season, they're in for trouble in tonight's CAA Title Game and here's why:
First and foremost, this is not the same Patriots team as last year. They aren't sneaking up on anyone, and defensively, I'm really not impressed by their growth from season to season. George Mason is allowing 70 ppg on 46% shooting on the highway this season... Not nearly good enough to cover against a suddenly surging Tribe squad.
Have to admit a bit surprised by William & Mary, especially with their impressive outright win over VCU 56-54 Sunday as a 12-point dog! In hindsight, its another example of a team peaking a precisely the right time, combining their perimeter based attack with a very fundamental and focused defense. In the CAA Tourney the Tribe are holding their opponents to 57 ppg on just 40% shooting!
So how does William & Mary keep this one within the number? Defense, plain and simple. The Patriots offense has been less than impressive on neutral courts, scoring about 68 ppg on 45% shooting, which is decent, but not good enough to make up for their deficiencies on the defensive end. In fact, the Tribe's offense has actually improved in the CAA tourney (peaking at the right time), averaging 63 ppg on an impressive 48% shooting!
Bottom line, these two teams are a lot closer than the guys in Vegas want you to believe. True, George Mason may have the best two players on the court in Campbell and Thomas, but the better overall team is William & Mary right now, and it'll show in the final score. In the end, Patriots may win, but they have to fight for every last basket to do it.
Take William & Mary plus the points over George Mason in tonight's CAA Title Game.
3. Western Kentucky- While both these teams are playing well, there's no question the nod here goes to the Hilltoppers, who's superior offense and perimeter defense are more than enough to cover the number in this one.
It doesn't take a brain surgeon to see the Trojans will have trouble keeping pace in this contest, averaging 57 ppg on 37% shooting away this season. Granted, they were better in the Quarterfinals against Florida Atlantic, but there's a HUGE difference between FAU and Western Kentucky, namely 10 wins and better players at almost every position. Recall their only meeting this season, a 71-47 shellacking of the Trojans by this Hilltoppers squad, and you can easily see the disparity.
A lot people question the Western Kentucky defense, but when it comes to the perimeter, they're excellent, allowing 41% shooting, including 32% from beyond the arc! While its true they may run into trouble against bigger teams, in this case, their right at home against a perimeter-based, smallish team like Arkansas-Little Rock. Trojans already have issues scoring points, but against this defense, their problems only get pushed to the forefront (like in their last meeting).
We all know the Hilltoppers frontline is just for show, but their backcourt of Courtney Lee and Tyrone Brazelton is a good as it gets in the Sun Belt. They have a huge edge over a Trojans squad that has no real "go-to" guy. In other words, Arkansas-Little Rock's balance may just be their downfall here tonight. Smith and Moore are decent players, but on a neutral court, against a far superior team, they're in over their heads in this one. Hilltoppers roll!
Take Western Kentucky BIG over Arkansas-Little Rock in this Sun Belt Tourney Semifinals match up.
Rob Veno
Blue Chip: Gonzaga -6.5
George Mason Over 115 -110
South Alabama -11
Dallas Over 201 -110
Blue Chip: San Antonio -7
New Jersey +12.5
ER Sports
NBA Playmaker: Philadelphia Under 196
Tony Karpinsky / Ice man
MONDAY TOP PLAYS: SIENA and SD
Take Siena -2 ½ over Rider (7:00 pm ESPN 2) The MAAC Championship is on the line tonight with the two best teams in the conference fighting it out for the one bid into the big dance. Both teams split this season with each squad winning in hostile territory, but the big three of Ubiles, Franklin, and Hasbrouck will propel the Saints to a victory, especially since the game is being played in Albany. Rider has struggled to put away too bad teams and this time their luck will run out and we pick up 4 big units in the process.
PIck on SD A rare occurrence could happen on Monday, as the Toreros try and send 3 teams to the tournament from the WCC from the first time in their existence. San Diego is no slouch and finished the conference season 11-3 with no bad losses and did defeat St. Mary?s twice. They also played Gonzaga tough losing by a combined 14 points in their two games and will take this one to the wire as well. SD is a very solid and fundamental team who does not turn the ball over. This would be big money for the conference if they can get 3 teams in the tournament and that will give the Toreros the extra little edge, especially when playing on their home court.
Spritzer
tko.......................gonzaga
3 star.....................ark-lr
total.....................cavs under 91.5
ko........................magic
5 star shocker gow..................sixers
also releasing la kings over 5.5
Cokin
fat man plays.............cavs under,rangers-110
window.....................s. bama
3 star.......................rider
total...................heat over 91
under the hat..................magic
3 star.....................spurs
Feist
personal best.................ark lr
platinum.........................san diego
inner circle.................mid tenn st
5 star....................wm and mary
4 star...................elon
3 star.....................rider
total...................spurs under 03
platinum..................spurs
inner circle...................magic
5 star gow.....................rockets
Wayne Root
Chairman - 76ers
Millionaire - Spurs
LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR)
LA CLIPPERS vs MIAMI HEAT
HEAT OVER 190 (NBA)
SAN JOSE SABERCATS vs GRAND RAPIDS RAMPAGE
SAN JOSE SABERCATS vs GRAND RAPIDS RAMPAGE OVER 106 (ARENA FOOTBALL)
LA AVENGERS vs ARIZONA RATTLERS
LA AVENGERS -3 buy the 1/2 point if needed
GOLD SHEET LTS for TODAY
ORLANDO Home over Atlanta
HOUSTON Home over New Jersey
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
SAN DIEGO Home over Gonzaga
WESTERN KENTUCKY over Arkansas-L.R.
Gina
New York Knicks (18-45) at Dallas Mavericks (40-23)
The Mavericks have played great at home and are a tough team to beat on their home court, 26-4 at American Airlines Center this season, while the Knicks have been a horror away from home, just 6-24 this season.
The Mavericks are playing below par and have dropped four of its last six games, but have beaten the Knicks in the last four meetings and the last seven in Dallas. Go with Dallas to cover the double digit spread versus the gloomy Knicks. New York has dropped their last five games, going 1-4 ATS and has lost 11 of the last 12 against the Mavericks, 3-9 ATS.
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks - 13½
San Antonio Spurs - 7
Mr. A
Philadelphia 76ers + 6½
Cleveland Cavaliers - 6
Houston Rockets - 13