LT Profits Sports Group
Nebraska is on a 5-0 ATS run, and they gave Kansas all they can handle the last time the played on the road. Mississippi has a losing ATS record at home. Take the Huskers.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers have looked good recently and the Big 12 has done well this post-season, so look for the Huskers to at the very least take the Mississippi Rebels down to the wire.
Nebraska has been a bettor’s dream as of late, going 8-1 against the spread in the last nine games including covering their last five in a row. The last time they played away from home, they gave Kansas all that they can handle before ultimately falling 64-54, still covering the 14-point spread. They then rebounded by trouncing NC Charlotte 67-48 in the first round of this NIT.
Mississippi started this season 13-0, but they have gone just 9-10 straight up since, missing their chance to be in the Big Dance. They did beat Cal Santa Barbara handily 83-68 in the first round, but Nebraska represents a big jump in class here, and besides, it is not as if the Rebels are blowing people away at home this year. In fact, they are just 6-7 ATS in their own building even including that firs round win, despite this being a rather down year for the SEC.
We will go with the hotter team from the better conference as underdogs here.
Pick: Nebraska +5½
Joe Vandercook
California struggles greatly against teams that are proficient from the outside, but the Buckeyes strength isn't their ability to shoot the rock. Eight is too many to give the Bears.
California took advantage of an embarrassing night at the foul line from New Mexico and they now find themselves in Columbus, Ohio, set to take on the Buckeyes. Cal knocked down 22 FTs of their own and managed not to squander all of the eight point lead they took into the half.
Ohio State spent most of their previous game simply hoping to avoid injury. UNC Ashville proved to be slightly more competitive than a collection of cones as the Buckeyes hit over 56% from the field and cruised to an 18-point victory.
Ranking 10th in the nation in FG% defense, the men from Columbus beat teams with great defense. OSU only gives up 61 points a game and they rank in the top 25 against the three. The Buckeyes will press after scores and drop back into a zone when Cal gets into their half court offense. As good as this team plays defensively, they couldn’t find consistent enough offense to get themselves into the NCAA Tourney. The favorites tonight don’t rank in the top 200 in three point percentage or points per game. The Bears figure to sit back and focus more on rebounding than defending the perimeter.
California has the exact opposite team blueprint. This Pac-10 representative allows over 75 points per game while they light their opposition up for 77. Some teams give up a lot of points due to their style and some give them up because they’re terrible defensively; Cal falls under the latter category. The Bears don’t get many steals, they don’t defend the three, and they don’t stop teams well in transition. For them to get the win tonight, they’ll have to hope the Buckeyes are cold from the outside. California will have the most athletic big man, Davon Hardin, and the best overall talent on the court, Ryan Anderson; those two players may be enough to keep them in the game.
It’s never good when your best option defensively is hoping the other team misses, but that’s about all Cal can do when OSU has the rock. Fortunately for the Bears, they’re playing a team that doesn’t shoot well and isn’t particularly impressive on the glass. Cal is an athletic team and they should score enough to keep this game close till the end.
Play: California +8
Rocketman Sports
3* NBA Blowout Milwaukee Bucks
Winning Points Online.
Phoenix at Detroit
PREFERRED UNDER 206
Pistons have clinched the playoffs and they want to hold down the #2 seed without over-using the starters, which they haven't done all season. They have allowed only 89.6 points per game against Western Conference teams this season. Phoenix's most recent game against a real basketball team (Houston doesn't count because they are not real, they are freaky and now tired) was 94-87 against San Antonio. Since then, they've been rolling up big numbers vs. Western dregs to help inflate tonight's line.
DETROIT, 98-95.
Seabass
Insider 100* Vt Under
20*Cal,
20*Nebraska,
20*Ohio,
20*Tulsa,
20*Dayton/S Ill Under
10* NBA Detroit
BRANDON LANG
10 Dime - Tulsa
5 Dime - Ohio U.
5 Dime - California
Free - Illinois State
CAJUN SPORTS
Play: 3* Mississippi -5.5
Comments: Nebraska will travel to Oxford and Tad Smith Coliseum to face an Ole Miss team that has posted a record of 17-2 at home this season. They average 83.9 points per contest and this is against teams who normally allow 69.1 points per game. On the defensive side of the court Ole Miss only allows 70.8 points per game to teams that average 72.9 points per game. Nebraska averages 61.4 points per game on the highway versus teams that allow 68.1 points per game; we see they struggle to score on the road with -6.7 points per game differential. Defensively they allow almost 68 points per contest on the season. As a road underdog of 6 or less points the Huskers are 1-9 ATS their last ten times to post. The road has been tough for the Huskers as they are 6-15 ATS on the road the last two years. If they are coming in off a win of 10 or more points and playing on the road they are 14-28 ATS and 22-39 ATS off a home win overall. If they were a favorite in their last game they have cashed only five out of the last twenty times to post in that situation. When Ole Miss is facing a quality opponent at home who has won 60 to 80% of their games on the season Ole Miss is 10-1 ATS their last 11. If the game is 15 or later in the season Ole Miss is perfect posting a 9-0 ATS record in that situation. One last tech note we have a system that tells us to Play Against CBB road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a team shooting >=45% on the season against an opponent after a game where they shot 57% or higher, allowing 43% or lower, 55-26 ATS since 2002. Take the host here and lay the short price as the Rebels of Ole Miss advance to the next round.
ATS Basketball Lock Club
4 units Mississippi
3 units Tulsa
ATS Hockey Lock Club
3 units Avalanche
WUNDERDOG
Game: Phoenix at Detroit
Pick: Detroit -2
The Suns have made the Shaq naysayers backtrack. After starting 3-6 with the Diesel, they have no reeled off seven in a row. They'll try to exact revenge for a 111-81 beatdown at the hands of the Pistons in Shaq's third game with his new club. They won't get it. Sure, this game will be closer. But, this game is in Detroit and if there's a team that can slow down the Suns, it's this team. Detroit will be bringing it as they look to avoid losing three straight. Phoenix has looked impressive but we need to temper the enthusiasm by the fact five of their eight wins have come against absolute cupcakes and/or teams that have no defense (Memphis, Golden State, Sacramento and Seattle). Detroit has held nine of their last eleven opponents under triple-digits. The two games they allowed 100+ they won handily. This is a good matchup for Detroit as theya re 23-9 ATS this season vs. teams that hoist up 18+ three pointers per game. They are also perfect this season (7-0) in games with a total posted at 200+. Finally, they are 7-0 ATS this season at home off a loss.
ARTHUR RALPH
Superpick: California
Regular Play: Tulsa
Free Play - UAB
Kelso
Best Bet Mil Bucks -8.5 @ Heat
March Madness
10 units Bradley -5.5 v. Ohio U
5 units Cal +8 @ Ohio State
3 units Utah +2 @ Tulsa
Chairmans = 10 units Detroit -2.5 v. Suns
Bob Balfe
NBA Basketball
Sixers +9 over Celtics
College Basketball
UAB +8 over VTech
Savannah Sports
2 Units on California +7.5
Drew Gordon
1. 200,000* Valparaiso
2. 50,000* Mississippi
1. Valparaiso- It took him most of the season to find the right combination, but it looks as though coach Drew finally found it, and its paying serious dividends, as the Crusaders have won 7 of their last 8 games SU. Most impressive was their last win, a 72-71 outright win at Washington as 10-point underdogs! Many of the same reasons Valpo won that game, are the same reasons they keep this one well within the number...
First and foremost, adding some size and athleticism to their starting five by starting 6'6 G/F Michael Rogers and 6'10 freshman F Bryan Bouchie together is genius. Along with 6'8 F Urule Igbavboa, the Crusaders know have a much stronger starting 5. They matched up particularly well with Washington, and tonight's match up may be even more favorable, as the Cougars have very little talent in their frontcourt.
If you've seen this Houston team play, its clear they rely heavily on star G Rob McKiver, who's 23 ppg paces the Cougars. Problem for Houston is two-fold: A. 6'6 G Shawn Huff (Valpo's leading scorer) is a solid defender, who has both the size and experience edges over McKiver. And B. While Houston may score more on average than Valpo, they're shooting only 39% over their last 5 games (McKiver shoots 39% on the season)! You've heard me say this before: You live by the jumpshot, you die by the jumpshot.
Finally, let's talk depth and balance, as the Crusaders have significant edges in both. Thanks to having Rogers and Bouchie start, now guards Loyd, Haanpaa, and McPherson can come off the bench, which is huge because all three average double-digit scoring! Not only is their depth an advantage, but the fact Valpo gets balanced scoring across the board, means its that much harder to gameplan for them.
Bottom line, Valpo is playing excellent basketball right now, and thanks to coach Drew's successful lineup changes, the Crusaders enjoy edges in size, depth, and overall scoring balance in this contest. Make no mistake, beating Houston at the Hofheinz Pavilion is no easy task, but being spotted this many points, look for the Crusaders to get the solid cover in this one.
Take Valparaiso plus the points over Houston as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Mississippi- This is a bad match up for the Cornhuskers anyway you look at it, as they've been vulnerable on the road, and are about to walk into one hell of a tough place to win, Tad Smith Coliseum, where the Rebels have been downright nasty this season. Granted, I know their 6-7 record ATS at home is nothing to write home about, but if you saw Ole Miss beat teams like Mississippi State, Alabama, and Arkansas there over the last month or so, its clear Nebraska is severely over matched in this one.
It all starts with the tremendous disparity on offense, as Nebraska is averaging a laughable 59 ppg on 41% shooting (30% from 3-point) away this season. When you compare that to the Rebels high-powered attack, scoring a blistering 84 ppg on 50% shooting (39% from 3-point) at Tad Smith Coliseum this season, there's no question the Cornhuskers will struggle to keep pace.
Of course, critics of this pick will argue the Cornhuskers defense should be able to keep them in this contest, but I disagree. Thanks to the fact they've covered 9 of their last 10 games, Vegas isn't sleeping on Nebraska anymore. I believe the number on this contest fully represents that, and I intend to capitalize because of it.
Finally, as far as match ups go, the Rebels Chris Warren is the key, as its been feast or famine with the talented point guard. Like most freshmen, he's a lot more comfortable at home, and the numbers prove it, averaging 18.2 ppg over his last 4 at the Tad Smith Coliseum. Also, the fact the Rebels have more than enough beef in their frontcourt to handle Huskers C Aleks Maric is a big plus. Between 6'8 290 lbs. senior Dwayne Curtis and 6'8 240 lbs sophomore Kenny Williams, Ole Miss matches up extremely well with the Nebraska's main offensive weapon.
Bottom line, underestimate Mississippi at home in this match up at your own risk, as they've got a tremendous edge on offense, and the personnel required to slow down an already anemic Nebraska attack. Rebels roll!
Take Mississippi comfortably over Nebraska in this NIT Second Round match up.
2-Minute Warning
Nebraska
Root
Chairman - Old Dom
Millionaire - Ill St