SPORTS ADVISORS
(4) Pittsburgh (23-2, 12-6-1 ATS) at (1) Connecticut (24-1, 11-10 ATS)
The top two teams in the Big East are set to battle it out in Connecticut when Pitt visits the Huskies in a matchup of two of the country’s Top-5 teams.
The Panthers have won five straight games (3-0-1 ATS) and scored an 85-69 win over Cincinnati on Saturday, pushing as a 16-point favorite. The Pitt offense has been clicking on all cylinders lately, averaging 86.4 points per game on 53.7 percent shooting during the five-game winning streak, but defensively Jamie Dixon’s squad has surrendered nearly 70 ppg on 48 percent shooting.
UConn comes into this one riding a 13-game winning streak (7-5 ATS), including Saturday’s 62-54 victory at Seton Hall, with the Huskies falling short as 9½-point favorites. Jim Calhoun’s team has been held under 70 points in four straight games, but it has given up 61 points or fewer in seven straight games and 10 of 12 during the winning streak, yielding an average of 58.5 ppg during this stretch. The Huskies, who are playing without third-leading scorer Jerome Dyson (knee injury), are 12-1 at home this season but just 2-6 ATS.
UConn sits alone atop the league standings at 12-1 (8-5 ATS), including 6-1 at home (3-3 ATS). Pitt is 10-2 in conference (7-4-1 ATS), including 4-2 on the road (3-3 ATS).
These rivals are nearly identical statistically, with Pitt averaging 78 ppg and 48.5 percent shooting while UConn averages 76.9 ppg and 48 percent shooting. Defensively, the Panthers allow 62.2 ppg on 40.6 percent shooting, while the Huskies yield 60.5 points a game and limit the opposition to 37.3 percent from the field.
The home team is on a 3-0 run in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), with Connecticut getting a 60-53 win last year as four-point favorites. However, the Panthers are 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings, including 3-1 in their last four trips to Connecticut. In fact, the visitor has cashed in five of the last eight regular-season meetings.
The Panthers are on ATS streaks of 4-0 overall, 7-3 ATS on the road, 3-0-1 in Big East action, 4-1 on Mondays and 3-1-1 after a straight-up victory. UConn is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home, but they are on ATS upticks of 5-2 overall, 5-1 in Big East play and 9-3-1 on Mondays.
For Pitt, the over is on runs of 16-6 in Big East games and 5-2 after a spread-cover, but the under is 7-3 in its last 10 against teams with a winning record. The Huskies are on “under” streaks of 4-0 overall, 5-2 at home, 5-1 in Big East play, 6-1 on Mondays and 7-3 against teams with a winning record, The under has also been the play in seven of the last 10 meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Texas (17-7, 9-12 ATS) at Texas A&M (17-8, 10-7 ATS)
Archrivals do battle at Reed Arena when the Longhorns roll into College Station, Texas, to meet Texas A&M in a Big 12 showdown.
Texas snapped its three-game funk with two straight wins last week, beating Oklahoma State 99-74 and cashing as an 8½-point home favorite on Tuesday and then scoring an 85-76 overtime road win in Colorado on Saturday, falling short as an 11½-point chalk. The Longhorns are just 1-4 ATS in their last five, averaging 77 ppg but giving up 72.4.
Texas A&M has lost three straight and six of its last eight, including Saturday’s 72-68 setback at Baylor on Saturday, but the Aggies got the cash as 5½-point road ‘dogs. Texas A&M, which has lost its last three games by a total of 15 points, is 5-1 ATS in its last six contests (all in conference) despite an offense that averages just 69.3 ppg.
The Longhorns are 6-4 in conference play, but just 3-7 ATS, including 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS as a visitor. Texas A&M is 3-7 SU and 6-4 ATS in the Big 12, including 3-2 SU and ATS at home.
The home team is a perfect 9-0 (7-2 ATS) in this series dating back to 2005, including Texas’ 67-58 win back on Jan. 24, but the Aggies cashed as 12-point pups. Last year in College Station, A&M prevailed 80-63 and easily covered as 3½-point favorites. In fact, the Aggies are 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
Texas is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 Monday games, but it is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 against teams with a winning record, in addition to its ongoing 1-4 ATS slump (all in Big 12 play). The Aggies are on pointspread runs of 5-1 overall (all in Big 12 action), 7-3 after a spread-cover, 6-3 as an underdog this season, 9-2 after a straight-up loss and 5-1 against teams with a winning record.
The ‘Horns have stayed under the total in six of their last seven Monday games, but they have topped the posted price in four of their last five after a straight-up win. For the Aggies, the under is on streaks of 6-2 overall, 6-2 at home, 5-1 on Mondays and 5-2 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS A&M and UNDER
DUNKEL
Texas at Texas A&M
The Longhorns are just 3-7 ATS against conference opponents this season, while the Aggies 6-3 ATS as an underdog. Texas A&M is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (+2).
Game 501-502: Pittsburgh at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 77.299; Connecticut 81.950
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 3
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-3)
Game 503-504: Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 53.283; New Mexico State 58.100
Dunkel Line: New Mexico State by 5
Vegas Line: New Mexico State by 9
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (+9)
Game 505-506: Texas at Texas A&M
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 68.631; Texas A&M 68.453
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Texas by 2
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (+2)
Game 507-508: Canisius at Loyola-MD
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 47.483; Loyola-MD 50.645
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 3
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 7
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (+7)
Game 509-510: College of Charleston at Appalachian State
Dunkel Ratings: College of Charleston 53.647; Appalachian State 52.171
Dunkel Line: College of Charleston by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Appalachian State by 1
Dunkel Pick: College of Charleston (+1)
Game 511-512: Siena at Iona
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 60.268; Iona 55.306
Dunkel Line: Siena by 5
Vegas Line: Siena by 4
Dunkel Pick: Siena (-4)
Game 513-513: Marist at St. Peter's
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 45.780; St. Peter's 50.898
Dunkel Line: St. Peter's by 5
Vegas Line: St. Peter's by 3
Dunkel Pick: St. Peter's (-3)
NHL DUNKEL
Dallas at Columbus
The Stars look to rebound from a 6-2 loss at Chicago on Saturday and build on their 10-4 record after losing by 2 goals or more in their previous game. Dallas is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Stars favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+105).
Game 51-52: Pittsburgh at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.409; NY Islanders 11.747
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-180); 6
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+160); Under
Game 53-54: Dallas at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 12.966; Columbus 12.019
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+105); Under
Game 55-56: NY Rangers at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 10.670; St. Louis 10.336
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+100); Over
Game 57-58: Ottawa at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 12.429; Nashville 12.219
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+120); Under
Game 59-60: Edmonton at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.465; Phoenix 11.229
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-110); Over
Game 61-62: Atlanta at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 11.787; Los Angeles 12.457
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-215); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-215); Over
Tom Freese
Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State
Louisiana Tech is 8-2 ATS as road dogs or a pick this year and they are 20-7 ATS in road games off a Conference home win. The Bulldogs are 20-8 ATS their last 28 Conference games and they are 6-0 ATS on Monday. New Mexico St is 2-8 ATS their last 10 games overall and they are 0-5 ATS off a straight up win. The Aggies are 1-6 ATS their last 7 home games and the favorite in this series is 2-6 ATS the last 8 meetings.
Play on: Louisiana Tech
John Ryan
Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State
Play: New Mexico State -9
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on New Mexico State as they host Louisiana Tech slated to start at 9:00 EST. AiS shows a 73% probability that NMST will win this game by 10 or more points. LT in a series of very weak roles for this road game. Note that LT is just 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after playing a game as favorite over the last 2 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. HC Rupp has been involved in all of the aforementioned games as well. As an optional consideration i also like the first half line for a small wager as well. Note that NMST is 10-1 against the 1rst half line (+8.9 Units) in home games when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 10-1 against the 1rst half line (+8.9 Units) after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. This is a game that NMST knows they can win and will be looking to get out to big lead as early in the game as possible. Take NMST.
Cajun Sports
Texas vs. Texas A&M
Play: Texas -2
Reed Arena in College Station will be the site for ESPN’s second game of their College Basketball double-header on Monday night featuring the hometown Texas A&M Aggies and the visiting Longhorns from the University of Texas. The Horns enter tonight’s game off back-to-back wins over Oklahoma State 99 to 74 and at Colorado 85 to 76. A&M has not been so fortunate losing their last three in a row which included losses at Oklahoma 77 to 71 at home versus Kansas State 65 to 60 and finally on the road at Baylor 72 to 68.
College Basketball teams that are coming off a loss straight up but a win ATS and going ‘under’ in their last game and are now installed as a home underdog of 2.5 to 6 points are 34-61-3 ATS. If that loss came on the road the record for our play against team is 29-54-2 ATS. If this is a conference game our home underdog has a record of 66-92-6 ATS with any line range but if the line range is 2.5 to 6 points the record for our play against team is 23-44-1 ATS. If our play against team is involved in a division game as a home underdog their record is 9-24-1 ATS and if we use the same line range their record is 2-9-1 ATS.
College Basketball teams winning straight up but losing ATS on the road in their last game and are now a conference road favorite their record is 87-61 ATS. College teams that won straight up on the road and are now on the division road with a line range of 2.5 to 6 points have a record of 87-59-1 ATS. If our play on team went ‘over’ in their last game and are now a division road favorite their record is 45-25 ATS and if we have the same line range as above their record is 25-9 ATS. We also note that Texas after winning straight up but losing ATS on the road now facing a conference opponent has gone 7-1 ATS. If Texas went ‘over’ in that game and now has the same line range their record is a perfect 5-0 ATS.
Texas has a team offensive efficiency rating of 110.1 which ranks 52nd in the nation while the Aggies have a rating of 107.5 which is good for 82nd. The Longhorns have a defensive efficiency rating of 89.1 which ranks 16th in the country while the Aggies have a rating of 95.4 for 68th. Texas has a significant advantage on the defensive end and should be able to control the pace and tempo at both ends of the floor in tonight’s contest which will translate into a Horns victory and cover for us in College Station tonight.
Texas is 17-7 SU and 9-12 ATS on the season with a record of 7-5 SU and 6-6 ATS on the road averaging 69.6 points per game versus teams that allow 68.8 points per game, defensively the Longhorns are holding their opponents to 65.2 points per game versus teams that average 72.8 points per game. The Aggies are 17-8 SU and 9-8 ATS overall on the season including 13-2 SU at home but only 2-5 ATS. Texas A&M has really struggled in conference play posting a record of only 3-7 SU but they are 5-4 ATS averaging 67.3 points per game versus teams that allow 69.2 points per game, defensively the Aggies allow 70.2 points per game versus teams that average 72.3 points per game.
Finally we have two college basketball systems that are active for tonight’s game. The first tells us to Play Against CBB home teams where the line is +3 to -3 off 3 straight losses against conference rivals against an opponent off a road win, 82-44 ATS since 1997. The second and final system tells us to Play On CBB road teams as a favorite or pick with a team shooting 32-36.5 percent from the three-point line against a team that is allowing 32-36.5% percent from behind the arc after a game where a team made 55 percent of their shots or better, 46-14 ATS the last five seasons.
Combine all the fundamental, situational and technical factors and we have a solid play on the Longhorns tonight, so lay the short price and hook em!
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) Texas Longhorns 74 Texas A&M Aggies 67
Bob Harvey
Pittsburgh @ Connecticut Under 136.0
If you’re looking for lots of points and run and gun offense, replay last night’s NBA all-star game because your not going to find it here.
This matchup of Big-East “Super Powers” figures to be low-scoring and decided by defense.
The Huskies are 15-5 to the UNDER this season, 10-3 to the low side in conference play, and 14-3 to the UNDER when facing a team with a winning record.
The Huskies are also on UNDER runs of 6-1 (last seven) and 7-3 (last ten).
The low numbers continue in head-to-head meetings. The UNDER is 7-3 in the last ten series meetings.
U-Conn is first in the nation in rebounding margin (11.5 per game), third in the nation in field goal percentage allowed at 37.3 and 23rd in three-point defense.
Both of last seasons meetings failed to crack the 120 point mark. I don’t see that much has changed this season. Pitt can score (78 PPG) but U-Conn can defend like no one’s business (60 PPG). The line looks about right for this game.
Look for another low scoring game. My advice: PLUNDER the UNDER.
LT Profits
Louisiana Tech +9
The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs have surprisingly been very profitable investments this season while the New Mexico State Aggies have been generally overvalued, and we look for this to continue tonight.
The Bulldogs may be just 10-15 straight up, but they are on a nice 10-4 run against the spread to improve to 13-7 ATS for the while season., one of the best rates against the number in the country. Furthermore, they are 8-3 ATS on the road, where they are losing their games by an average of -6.4 points, a margin that is well within this inflated spread.
On the flip side, the Aggies are a modest 13-12 SU overall and a poor 9-15 ATS, including just 5-7 ATS here at home. They have been burning a lot of money lately, going just 2-8 ATS in the last 10 games, and they have covered just one of their last six home games.
As if that is not enough, this has been an Underdog Series, with the dog going 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings. Look for Louisiana to continue that trend at a nice number here.
Pick: Louisiana Tech +9
Dave Cokin
College of Charleston @ Appalachian State
Play: Charleston +1
College of Charleston will attempt to complete the sweep of their season series with Appalachian State tonight. Charleston took the earlier meeting 88-80, and while the Mountaineers have some attractive revenge numbers, I like the Cougars to win once again. Charleston has a solid road ledger and they own that stunning win over Davidson, so I like their chances of handling an App State entry that has not been dominant at home this year. College of Charleston is the free lean for Monday.
James Patrick
Siena vs. Iona
Our Monday selection is in the match-up between Siena and Iona and we'll side with Siena Saints as they have cashed 7 of 8 in this series and they are 7-0 ATS on the road.
Jimmy The Moose
Dallas Stars at Columbus Blue Jackets
Prediction: Dallas Stars
Both team's are playing well coming into this one. The Stars are 8-3 in their last 11 games overall and are facing a Blue Jackets team they have dominated recently. Dallas is 7-3 in their last 10 games vs. Western Conference opponents. The Stars are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. Central Division opponents. The Blue Jackets are 14-39 in their last 53 games vs. a team with a losing record. in their last 20 games vs. Pacific Division opponents Columbus is 5-15. The Blus Jackets are 7-22 in the last 29 meetings between the clubs. Dallas is 8-2 in their last 10 trips to Columbus. Play on the Dallas Stars +.
Brian Hansen
Atlanta Thrashers at Los Angeles Kings
Prediction: Atlanta Thrashers
Atlanta is coming off a beatdown victory, 8-4 over the Ducks and I look for them to carry that momentum into tonight's game vs. the Kings. LA is a horrible 9-14 in home games when the total is 5 1/2. Play on ATLANTA!
Dwayne Bryant
Canisius at Loyola-Maryland
Play: Canisius +6.5
This is a revenge game for Canisius, who got pounded by 24 at home by Loyola-Maryland last month. The logical way of thinking is that if Canisius lost at home by 24 to Loyola-Maryland, then surely Loyola-Maryland can win and cover at home as single digit chalk. If only it were that easy.
Embarrassment is a great motivator and Canisius was embarrassed by Loyola-Maryland in front of their own home crowd. Think Canisius wants to return the favor tonight? Absolutely. Canisius will be plenty motivated to humiliate Loyola-Maryland in front of their home fans tonight. Loyola-Maryland is just 1-6 ATS at home this season.
On the flip side, Canisius is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 or less. Canisius is also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. And despite being just 3-11 SU on the road this season, Canisius is actually a very respectable 6-4-1 ATS on the road this season.
From a series perspective, Canisius is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Loyola-Maryland. The road team is a PERFECT 9-0 ATS in the last 9 meetings and the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
In games involving two poor teams and a decent spread, it's almost always better to take the points. Given tonight's situation, I will do just that. I'll take the points with Canisius tonight.
Bobby Maxwell
Pittsburgh at CONNECTICUT -4'
This is a marquee matchup, one of the biggest games we've had this season and you can bet UConn is going to be fired up for thisone. The Huskies have won 13 straight games and to be hones, they have more talent than the Panthers and they'll get the win and cover tonight.
The Huskies might have been looking ahead to this one when they scored a 62-54 win at Seton Hall on Saturday and failed to cover as 9 1/2-point favorites. UConn has faced some stiff competition this season and they are 12-1 in front of the home crowd.
Connecticut is on ATS runs of 5-1 in Big East action, 5-2 in their last seven overall and 9-3-1 in their last 13 Monday games.
The Panthers have won five straight but they had to settle for a push at home against Cincinnati on Saturday, pulling away late for an 85-69 victory as 16-point favorites.
UConn won last year's matchup 60-53 as a four-point home favorite and the home team has won each of the last three meetings.
These two teams are eerily similar with their points per game and points allowed per game. So we think the home court is going to make a big difference tonight. Play UConn in what should be an outstanding game.
3♦ CONNECTICUT
Karl Garrett
Louisiana Tech +9 at NEW MEXICO STATE
G-Man on a 15-7 free play run my last 22 comp play releases.
Too many points to lay in Las Cruces tonight when New Mexico State plays host to Louisiana Tech.
The Aggies just beat back Fresno State on Saturday, but it took overtime before they prevailed, and they did not cover. That spread failure dropped them to 5-7 as the host this season, and tonight they take on a team that may be 4-11 straight up away from home, but it is a money-making 8-3 against the spread in their lined road games!
Louisiana Tech comes into this one with a few extra days of rest, and they have won 2 of their last 3, while covering in ALL 3.
Series numbers do show State with 4 straight wins, but against the spread, it is La Tech that has covered in 2 of the last 3 meetings.
Take the generous points as Louisiana Tech takes New Mexico State to the limit tonight.
3♦ LOUISIANA TECH
Sports Gambling Hotline
Texas at TEXAS A&M +2
We enter Monday on an 8-3-2 comp play run the last 13 days!
Tonight we go with Texas A&M at home over Texas in a huge Big 12 showdown.
Both teams sport near identical marks, as the Longhorns are 17-7, while the Aggies are 17-8.
Texas has won their last pair of games, but prior to that had dropped 3 straight.
Texas A&M has lost their last 3, and 6 of their last 8!
Who takes this one?
We will side with the "home cooking", as A&M does own a 13-2 straight up mark at home this year, and it should be noted the the home team in this series is a perfect 10-for-10 the last 10 meetings between these conference rivals.
A&M is 9-3-1 against the spread the last 13 series meetings overall, while Texas is just 1-5 against the spread their last 6 tries when favored.
G-Man siding with the Aggies in this one.
1♦ TEXAS A&M