SPORTS ADVISORS
(10) Villanova (23-6, 14-11 ATS) at Notre Dame (16-12, 7-15 ATS)
Two Big East foes coming off Saturday losses square off in South Bend, Ind. when Villanova visits Notre Dame.
The Wildcats lost a tough home game to Georgetown on Saturday, falling 56-54 as 6½-point favorites, snapping a three-game SU winning streak and dropping to just 1-4 ATS in their last five overall. Villanova shot just 15-of-45 from the field as the Wildcats were held to their lowest point total of the season.
Notre Dame went to No. 2 Connecticut on Saturday and fought hard but fell 72-65, cashing as a 11½-point pup. The Irish have followed a seven-game winning streak by going 4-2 in their last six, but despite Saturday’s spread-cover against the Huskies, they’re just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall (3-10 ATS in Big East action).
Notre Dame is considered “on the bubble” for making the NCAA Tournament and needs to win its final two Big East games to finish at .500 in conference play. It sits at 7-9 SU and 5-11 ATS in conference, including 5-2 at home (3-4 ATS). Villanova is 11-5 in league play (9-7 ATS), including 5-3 on the highway (4-4 ATS).
This is the first meeting between these two this season but Notre Dame has taken the last two clashes, including a 90-80 win in Philadelphia as a 2½-point underdog last year. The Irish are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with the Wildcats and they’ve covered each of the last three played in South Bend.
In addition to its ongoing 1-4 ATS slump (all in the Big East), Villanova is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games after a straight-up loss, but the ‘Cats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against teams with a winning record. The Irish have been a disaster at the betting window, currently on negative ATS streaks of 3-11 overall, 8-21 after a spread-cover, 3-10 against Big East foes, 1-6-1 on Mondays, 0-5 as a favorite and 3-9 against teams with a winning record.
The Wildcats have stayed below the total in 21 of 30 as an underdog and 15 of 22 coming off a non-cover, but they are otherwise on “over” streaks of 7-1 on the road, 4-0 after a straight-up loss and 7-0 against teams with a winning home record. Notre Dame is riding “under” runs of 10-3 as a favorite, 4-1 at home, 4-1 against Big East rivals, 7-1 as a home favorite and 6-1 against teams with a winning road record.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Baylor (17-11, 7-13 ATS) at (25) Texas (19-9, 10-15 ATS)
The struggling Bears make the trek to Austin, Texas tonight for a Big 12 showdown with Texas, a team Baylor hasn’t beaten in 23 straight tries.
Baylor managed to score a 75-57 home win over Colorado on Saturday and cashed as a 14½-point chalk, ending an 0-9 ATS slump. The Bears, who were once ranked in the Top 25, are just 2-8 SU in their last 10 overall, including five straight losses and non-covers on the road.
Texas dropped a 68-59 decision at Oklahoma State on Saturday and failed as a one-point underdog, dropping to 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games. The Longhorns have won three straight at home (2-1 ATS).
The Longhorns are barely keeping their heads above water in conference play at 8-6 SU and 4-10 ATS, including 5-2 in Austin (2-5 ATS). Meanwhile, Baylor is 5-9 SU and 3-11 ATS in Big 12 action, including 1-6 SU and ATS as a visitor.
Texas went to Baylor back on Jan. 27 and got a 78-72 victory, cashing as 1½-point pups. The Longhorns have covered each of the last three against the Bears, and last time these two met in Austin Texas prevailed 80-72 as seven-point favorites.
Baylor is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 games following a spread-cover and 5-1 ATS in its last six on Mondays, but otherwise the pointspread trends are all negative for the Bears, including 0-5 on the road, 1-9 in Big 12 games, 1-4 after a straight-up win and 0-7 against teams with a winning record. Texas is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 Monday games but just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 at home in addition to its ongoing 4-11 ATS slide overall.
For the Bears, the under is 6-0-1 in their last seven overall, but the over is on streaks of 14-5-1 as a visitor, 14-4-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record and 15-6 following a straight-up win. The Longhorns have stayed below the total in 10 of 13 on Mondays, 15 of 22 at home against teams with a losing road record and four of five after a straight-up loss. However, the over is 5-2 in the last seven in this rivalry, including 3-0 in the last three..
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS
NBA
New Orleans (36-22, 23-33-2 ATS) at Philadelphia (29-29, 27-29-2 ATS)
The Hornets will try to make if five straight wins overall and four straight against the Sixers when they visit the Wachovia Center in Philadelphia.
New Orleans made ran its winning streak to four in a row with Sunday’s 99-96 victory at the Nets, but failed to cover as a 4½-point chalk. Despite their winning ways, the Hornets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games – 0-4 ATS as a favorite – and they’ve failed to cash in eight of their last 10 overall.
Philadelphia lost at home to the Magic 106-100 on Saturday, coming up short as a 1½-point pup. The Sixers are just 2-5 SU in their last seven overall and 2-6 ATS in their last eight. They’ve also dropped two in a row at home following a four-game home winning streak. In fact, Philly has been mediocre at the Wachovia Center this season, going 17-13 SU (10-19-1 ATS).
New Orleans won the first matchup with the Sixers this season, cruising 101-86 as a three-point home favorite. The Hornets are 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three and 6-4 (7-3 ATS) in their last 10 against Philly. Also in this rivalry, the home team is riding a 6-2 ATS streak.
The Hornets are 13-7-1 ATS in their last 21 against the Atlantic Division, but otherwise they are on a plethora of negative ATS trends, including 6-20 as a road ‘dog, 1-7 on the road, 1-5 on Mondays, 2-5 on the second night of a back-to-back and 7-16-1 on the road against a team with a winning home record. Philadelphia is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 against the Southwest Division and 5-2-2 ATS in its last nine after getting one day off, but the Sixers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six on Mondays and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 at home against teams with a winning road mark.
New Orleans has topped the total in 10 of 14 road games, but otherwise the team is on under runs of 14-7-1 against the Eastern Conference and 9-3-1 on Mondays. The Sixers are on “under” streaks of 7-3-1 overall, 36-17-1 at home, 39-16-1 as a home favorite, 23-7-1 on Mondays, 6-0 against Western Conference teams and 8-3 after getting a day off. Lastly, the last four meetings in this series have stayed below the total, and the under is 4-1 in the last five in Philly.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Cleveland (46-12, 38-20 ATS) at Miami (31-27, 26-30-2 ATS)
The Cavaliers conclude a four-game road trip tonight with a stop in South Beach to take on the Heat.
Cleveland has won seven of eight overall (6-2 ATS) and is 2-1 (1-2 ATS) on this road swing. That includes Sunday’s 88-87 win in Atlanta, but the Cavs failed to cash as four-point favorites. They are 20-11 (17-14 ATS) on the road this season, going 4-1 in their last five as a visitor (3-2 ATS).
Miami has alternated wins and losses over its last 10 contests, including a 120-115 home win over New York on Saturday, coming up just short as a 6½-point chalk. Dwyane Wade led the fourth-quarter surge against the Knicks and finished with 46 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds. The Heat are 20-10 at home but have struggled against the number at 13-16-1 ATS.
These teams have split two games this season with the host winning each contest, but the Heat taking the cash in both. Cleveland has won four of the last five in this rivalry, but Miami is 2-4 ATS in the last six. Finally, the underdog has gotten the cash in five of the last seven series battles.
The Cavs are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight against the Southeast Division, but otherwise they are on ATS runs of 43-20 overall, 19-10 against teams with a winning record, 36-16 as a favorite, 20-8 on Mondays and 5-1 when playing the second night of a back-to-back. Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last eight against Central Division squads and 9-2 in its last 11 when playing after one day off, but otherwise the Heat are on ATS slides of 3-7 overall, 2-6 on Mondays, 5-13 at home against teams with a winning road mark, 1-4 as a ‘dog and 1-4 as a home pup.
Cleveland is on “under” runs of 6-1 on Mondays, 9-2 against Eastern Conference teams and 10-4 against teams with a winning record. Miami has stayed under the total in 13 of 19 as a home ‘dog and four of five as a pup anywhere, but it is on “over” runs of 4-1-1 overall, 6-1-1 at home and 5-1 against Central Division teams. In this rivalry, the under is 12-5 in the last 17 overall and 10-3 in the last 13 in South Beach.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVLEAND and UNDER
DUNKEL
New Orleans at Philadelphia
The Sixers look to take advantage of a New Orleans team that is just 3-12 ATS as an underdog. Philadelphia is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sixers favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-1 1/2).
Game 501-502: New Orleans at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 116.923; Philadelphia 120.543
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 3 1/2; 193 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 189 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-1 1/2); Over
Game 503-504: Atlanta at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 114.299; Washington 112.497
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 2; 196 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 4 1/2; 199
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4 1/2); Under
Game 505-506: Cleveland at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 121.863; Miami 118.853
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 3; 184 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 4; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+4); Under
Game 507-508: Dallas at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 120.484; Oklahoma City 117.272
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 3; 205 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 5 1/2; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+5 1/2); Over
Game 509-510: San Antonio at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 123.483; LA Clippers 114.176
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 9 1/2; 197 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NCAAB
Villanova at Notre Dame
The high-scoring Irish (80.4 ppg at home) run into a Villanova team that is 7-1 ATS against good offensive teams (77+ ppg). The Wildcats are the underdog pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Notre Dame favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Villanova (+3 1/2).
Game 511-512: Villanova at Notre Dame
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 71.255; Notre Dame 72.308
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 1
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (+3 1/2)
Game 513-514: Boise State at New Mexico State
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 56.341; New Mexico State 58.793
Dunkel Line: New Mexico State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: New Mexico State by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (+6 1/2)
Game 515-516: Baylor at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 60.305; Texas 71.854
Dunkel Line: Texas by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas by 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-8)
Game 517-518: Furman at Wofford
Dunkel Ratings: Furman 44.358; Wofford 52.703
Dunkel Line: Wofford by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Wofford by 11
Dunkel Pick: Furman (+11)
Game 519-520: Davidson at Elon
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 60.206; Elon 46.964
Dunkel Line: Davidson by 13
Vegas Line: Davidson by 14
Dunkel Pick: Elon (+14)
Game 521-522: The Citadel at Georgia Southern
Dunkel Ratings: The Citadel 55.416; Georgia Southern 46.011
Dunkel Line: The Citadel by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: The Citadel by 5
Dunkel Pick: The Citadel (-5)
NHL
Colorado at NY Islanders
The Islanders (19-43) look to take advantage of a Colorado team that is just 2-10 against teams with losing records in the second half of the season. New York is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Islanders favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+100).
Game 51-52: Colorado at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 10.763; NY Islanders 11.826
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+100); Over
Ben Burns
New Orleans Hornets at Philadelphia 76ers
The Hornets won at New Jersey yesterday but failed to cover the spread. They are now 0-5 ATS their last five games and a money-burning 4-12 ATS their last 16. While they were favored yesterday, it's also worth noting that the Hornets are an ugly 3-12 ATS on the season, when listed as underdogs. With the Hornets also a costly 5-10-1 ATS the last 16 times that they played the second of back to back games, consider laying the number with the rested and revenge-minded home team.
Play on: Philadelphia
VEGAS EAPERTS
Boise State at New Mexico State
Two teams off back-to-back Overs meet tonight in Las Cruces. Already we've seen the early money come in on the Over, which is no surprise noting that Boise is 16-7 Over in road games and NMSU is 10-4 Over in home games. Looking "inside the numbers" a bit further, we find Boise at a perfect 9-0 Over on the road if coming off a conference loss. We then find NMSU at a perfect 6-0 Over at home if coming off a road game. Expect plenty of points in this matchup.
Play on: Over
Frank Jordan
Villanova vs. Notre Dame
Play: Villanova +3.5
Villanova is coming off a tough home loss to Georgetown 56-54, but have still won 9 of 11. Villanova is still 23-6 on the year and 11-5 in the Big East. Notre Dame played tough last game up in Connecticut losing by only 7 72-65 and have still won 4 of their last 6. Notre Dame is a bubble team with a 16-12 record and are 7 up and 9 down in the very tough Big East. Notre Dame has a little momentum, but the Wildcats are hungry to get back to winning and into the top 10 in the country. Look for Villanova to bounce back after that tough home loss with a big road win over Notre Dame on ESPN. Play Villanova
Charlie Scott
Villanova vs. Notre Dame
Play: Villanova +3.5
I have a couple of reasons for this play. The main reason being Villanova is the better team and is off a loss to Georgetown on Saturday. Villanova has won the next game after every loss this season, and see no reason not for them to bounce back tonight. Notre Dame is also off a loss Saturday ( U Conn). The difference is that I feel Notre Dame Coaches and Players knew they needed a win at U Conn to make the NCAA Tournament and Notre Dame played their hearts out and still came up short. Villanova plays a similiar style as Marquette, Marquette was able to beat Notre Dame and I expect the same Tonight ! Take the better Team as a dog, PLAY VILLANOVA !
Cajun Sports
The Citadel vs. Georgia Southern
Play: The Citadel -5.5
The Citadel enter tonight’s contest riding one of the best road records in basketball they are 9-6 SU but a perfect 11-0 ATS when playing away from home this season. The Citadel lost on Saturday as a home favorite to Wofford 62 to 55 but they are a perfect 2-0 ATS after suffering an upset loss at home. They are also 6-0 ATS in road games when playing with one or less days rest this season and 6-0 ATS on the road after playing at home. The Citadel had just completed the season sweep both SU and ATS over Furman prior to facing Wofford on Saturday. In fact they lost both meetings against Wofford as they followed each win over Furman. We look for them to bounce back here tonight against a Georgia Southern team that has struggled off an ATS loss with a record of 9-18 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread the last 2 seasons. GA Southern is 8-17 ATS as an underdog the last 2 seasons, 5-14 ATS against conference opponents this season, 5-14 ATS off a loss against a conference rival the last 2 seasons, 1-7 ATS revenging a loss this season and 0-6 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points this season. Georgia Southern is 8-20 SU and 9-17 ATS overall on the year, 6-6 SU and 4-7 ATS at home and over the last five games they are 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS averaging 65.2 points per game on 40.4 percent shooting from the field. Defensively they are allowing 80.0 points per game on 49.1 percent shooting to teams that would normally only score 71.8 points per game. They have shown no ability to bounce back from a loss they are coming into tonight’s game off two straight road losses at Elon 75 to 61 as a 4.5 point road underdog and on Saturday at Davidson 99 to 56 as a 23 point road dog. Prior to those two losses they had only one win in their last nine games overall, losing 8 straight and going 7-1 ATS before defeating Jacksonville State at home 66 to 63 as a 1.5 point home favorite. That one win will not keep us from classifying Georgia Southern as a “towel tossing” team at 8-20 they have nothing to play for at this point and it is evident by their poor performance they have tossed the towel. Lay the chalk as The Citadel gets the win and cover for us on Monday night.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (3*) The Citadel 72 Georgia Southern 61
Craig Trapp
Villanova vs. Notre Dame
Play: Under 157
Really important game today for Notre Dame they are almost at a spot where they have to win the big east tournament championship.
Today Craig is going with the under in this play ND has started to play better defense in there desperation to get wins. Last 5 games the under in there games is 1-4. With only one day rest for both games think it will be much lower scoring game than if they had a longer time to prepare as usuall. SCORE ND 72 - VIL 69
Bob Harvey
Colorado Avalanche @ New York Islanders Under 5.5
The Islanders are coming off a 2-0 win over the Buffalo Sabres and Yann Danis was again at the top of his game. He now has back-to-back shutouts, having blanked New Jersey in his previous effort. Danis is 2-1-0 with a 0.34 GAA in his last three starts. The Islanders have played under the total in each of his last four starts.
Of slight concern for those of us planning an under play this evening, is the wretched play of the Avalanche the past four games, all of them losses. Colorado has given up 21 goals during the skid. On the flip side, Isles are one of the few teams that have surrendered more goals than the Avalanche. That bothers me as well.
I’m counting on Danis to tip the scales. The under is 10-3 in the Isles last 13 games and 5-2 last seven.
The Avalanche are scoring 2.56 goals per game to rank among the bottom third in the league.
So who gets the edge in a game featuring low scoring teams vs. defensively challenged squads? In this case Danis is the key. I look for him to continue his mastery tonight in a low-scoring battle in the Big Apple.
JIM FEIST
SAN ANTONIO SPURS at LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Take: SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Reason: The Clippers are gaining a little respect with oddsmakers....which means it's time to fade them. The Clippers upset Boston and Golden State, but since then they are 0-2 SU/ATS. They squandered a 15-point second-quarter lead, went into a third-quarter lull and lost at home to Charlotte, 100-95. Zach Randolph was the game's leading scorer with 33 points and had nine rebounds for the Clippers. But Randolph is dealing with a difficult family situation and is back in Indiana to be with his dying father. It is unclear when he will return. The Clippers also were without guards Fred Jones, who has a sore lower back, and Mardy Collins, who is suffering from plantar fasciitis of his right foot. Too many problems, missing bodies, question marks and a lack of defense. Play the Spurs.
Tom Freese
Dallas at Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 20-7 ATS their last 27 games as underdogs and they are 12-1 ATS their last 13 games as home dogs. The Thunder are 12-5 ATS when playing with one day of rest and they are 7-0 ATS vs. Southwest Division teams. Dallas is 0-5 ATS off an ATS win and they are 0-4 ATS off a double digit win. The Mavericks are 5-13 ATS vs. Northwest Division teams and they are 1-4 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. PLAY ON OKLAHOMA CITY +
Jimmy The Moose
Colorado Avalanche at New York Islanders
Prediction: New York Islanders
Two struggling team's meet-up in New York tonight. The Avalanche have lost 4 straight games coming into this one. The Islanders have been horrible all year long but over their last 4 games are 2-2. Colorado has been horrible on the road posting 11-20-1 record. In their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record the Avalanche are 2-10. In the last 5 meetings between the clubs the Islanders are 3-1-1. Colorado is 0-4 in their last 5 trips to the Island. Play on the New York Islanders -.
Nick Parsons
Colorado Avalanche at New York Islanders
Prediction: Colorado Avalanche
The Islanders are coming off a 2-0 home victory over Buffalo, but I look for them to stumble as they suddenly surging Av's roll into town. Although they lost their last time out, I look for the Av's to play with a concerted effort tonight and to improve to 7-5 their last 12 when playing against a team with a losing record. Look for the Isles to fall to 7-18 their last 25 in the second half of the season; play on COLORADO!
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Philadelphia 76ers -2.5
The Hornets have dropped 5 in a row, 8 of 10, and 12 of 16 against the number. We'll take the fresh 76ers at home tonight against a Hornets team which just played a tough one against the Nets Sunday. One major thing to consider is that New Orleans is 3-12 ATS as an underdog this season, losing in these games by an average score of 91.1 to 100.0. The Hornets are also just 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. The 76ers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs. NBA Southwest and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 4.5 or less. Take Philly tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Furman vs. Wofford
Play: Wofford -11
Wofford controls all the key stats in this one.They are 8-2 vs losing teams,5-0 ats vs teams who score 65 or less and 10-2 with 1 or less day of rest.Furman is one of the conference doormats who always lose but cover the spread.However they are playing with 1 or less day of rest a situation that has seen them go 2-8 this year.They are terrible against winning teams and may just be playing out the string here tonight.Back Wofford.